** WTSR20 WSSS 140600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 141204 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 14/10/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 007/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 14/10/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0S / 81.9E (ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 250 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 500 NM IN THE EASTERN SECTOR. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 55 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, LOCALLY REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/10/15 AT 00 UTC: 12.3S / 80.5E, MAX WIND = 35 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/10/15 AT 12 UTC: 13.5S / 79.0E, MAX WIND = 35 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CYCLIC SO IT WOULD RE-INTENSIFY DURING NEXT NIGHT . WINDS REPARTITION ISN'T SYMETRIC AND WINDS ARE STRONGER IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL PRESSURES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 141205 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/2/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2005/10/14 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0S / 81.9E (ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 500 SO: 500 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/10/15 00 UTC: 12.3S/80.5E, MAX WIND=035KT. 24H: 2005/10/15 12 UTC: 13.5S/79.0E, MAX WIND=035KT. 36H: 2005/10/16 00 UTC: 14.1S/77.7E, MAX WIND=035KT. 48H: 2005/10/16 12 UTC: 14.4S/77.0E, MAX WIND=030KT. 60H: 2005/10/17 00 UTC: 14.7S/76.2E, MAX WIND=025KT. 72H: 2005/10/17 12 UTC: 15.1S/75.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE BEEING CYCLIC BUT STILL SHOWS A CURVED BAND PATTERN ORGANIZATION. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS WEAK UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD (CIRRUS CLOUDS MATERIALIZE THE GOOD NORTHERLY OUTLOW CHANNEL). GEOGRAPHICS WINDS REPARTITION REMAINS NON-SYMETRIC (CF 0053UTC QUIKSCAT SWAT). LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS WELL SUSTAINED BY A GOOD NORTHERLY TRANS-EQUATORIAL FLOW IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. MOST NWP MODELS ANALYZE THIS LOW, TRACK IT SOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 36 HOURS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES IT IS EXPECTED DEEPENING VERY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN WEAKENING WITHIN 48 TO 72 HOURS IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EXPECTED STRONGER NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A LESS ENERGETIC ENVIRONMENT WEST OF 80E AND SOUTH OF 14S (CF DEPTH 26AOC OF NOAA).= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 141200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 141200 UTC 00HR 23.1N 131.2E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR N 5KM/H P+24HR 25.2N 132.3E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 27.8N 134.4E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 30.5N 137.6E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 141200 *** WARNING 141200. WARNING VALID 151200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 945 HPA AT 22.9N 131.1E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 24.1N 131.6E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 26.1N 133.5E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 28.9N 135.8E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 141200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 141200UTC 22.9N 131.1E GOOD MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 151200UTC 24.1N 131.6E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 161200UTC 26.1N 133.5E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 171200UTC 28.9N 135.8E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 141500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 23.0N 131.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 131.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 23.5N 131.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 24.4N 131.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 25.6N 132.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 27.0N 134.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 30.2N 137.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 34.1N 142.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 38.6N 151.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 141500Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 131.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 141500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 23.0N 131.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 131.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 23.5N 131.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 24.4N 131.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 25.6N 132.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 27.0N 134.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 30.2N 137.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 34.1N 142.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 38.6N 151.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 141500Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 131.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 141500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140130ZOCT2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 11.0S 81.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 81.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 12.4S 80.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 13.7S 78.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 14.7S 76.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 15.7S 74.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 141500Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 81.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 140130ZOCT2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 140121). NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND 151500Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 141500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140130ZOCT2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 11.0S 81.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 81.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 12.4S 80.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 13.7S 78.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 14.7S 76.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 15.7S 74.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 141500Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 81.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 140130ZOCT2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 140121). NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND 151500Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 141500 RRB *** 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 15.7S 74.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 141500Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 81.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 140130ZOCT2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 140121). NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND 151500Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 141500 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140130ZOCT2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 11.0S 81.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 81.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 12.4S 80.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 13.7S 78.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 14.7S 76.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPH20 RPMM 141200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 19 AT 1200 14 OCTOBER TYPHOON (KIROGI)(0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO THREE POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 151200 TWO FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT ZERO EAST AT 161200 TWO FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 171200 TWO SEVEN POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON ARE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH20 RPMM 141200 CCA *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 19 AT 1200 14 OCTOBER TYPHOON (KIROGI)(0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO THREE POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 151200 TWO FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT ZERO EAST AT 161200 TWO FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 171200 TWO SEVEN POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 141200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 19 AT 1200 14 OCTOBER, TYPHOON (KIROGI) (0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO THREE POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 151200 TWO FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT ZERO EAST AT 171200 TWO SEVEN POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 141500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 141500 UTC 00HR 23.1N 131.1E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR N 5KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 141500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 141500UTC 23.0N 131.1E GOOD MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 151500UTC 24.1N 131.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 161200UTC 26.1N 133.5E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 171200UTC 28.9N 135.8E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 141500 *** WARNING 141500. WARNING VALID 151500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 945 HPA AT 23.0N 131.1E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151500UTC AT 24.1N 131.8E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTNT80 EGRR 141731 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.10.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 10.6N 128.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2005 10.6N 128.3W WEAK 00UTC 15.10.2005 10.5N 129.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2005 11.2N 129.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2005 10.6N 130.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.10.2005 10.5N 133.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2005 10.3N 135.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 10.5N 136.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2005 11.2N 137.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2005 12.7N 138.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2005 13.7N 139.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.10.2005 15.6N 138.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2005 16.9N 138.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 18.5N 76.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2005 18.5N 76.5W WEAK 00UTC 15.10.2005 17.5N 79.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2005 17.0N 80.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2005 15.8N 80.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.10.2005 17.0N 80.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2005 16.0N 80.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 16.6N 81.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2005 16.5N 81.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2005 16.5N 82.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.10.2005 16.5N 83.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.10.2005 16.5N 84.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 20.10.2005 17.0N 86.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 141731