** WTIO20 FMEE 140611 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 14/10/2005 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 006/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 14/10/2005 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3S / 82.2E (TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 250 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM IN THE EASTERN SECTOR. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 55 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, LOCALLY REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/10/14 AT 18 UTC: 11.8S / 81.1E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/10/15 AT 06 UTC: 13.1S / 79.6E, MAX WIND = 35 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CENTRE HAS CONSOLIDATED DURING LAST NIGHT. WINDS REPARTITION ISN'T SYMETRIC AND WINDS ARE STRONGER IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL PRESSURES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 140613 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/2/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2005/10/14 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3S / 82.2E (TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 500 SO: 500 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/10/14 18 UTC: 11.8S/81.1E, MAX WIND=030KT. 24H: 2005/10/15 06 UTC: 13.1S/79.6E, MAX WIND=035KT. 36H: 2005/10/15 18 UTC: 13.9S/78.4E, MAX WIND=035KT. 48H: 2005/10/16 06 UTC: 14.3S/76.9E, MAX WIND=035KT. 60H: 2005/10/16 18 UTC: 14.5S/75.5E, MAX WIND=030KT. 72H: 2005/10/17 06 UTC: 14.6S/74.1E, MAX WIND=030KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED DURING THE LAST HOURS , IN RELATIONSHIP WITH WEAKENING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD AND BEGINS TO BE MATERIALIZED BY CIRRUS OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AS A CURVED BAND PATTERN. MOST NWP MODELS ANALYZE THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION, TRACK IT SOUTHWESTWARDS , THEN WESTWARDS BEYOND 36 HOURS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES IT IS EXPECTED DEEPENING VERY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN WEAKENING WITHIN 48 TO 72 HOURS IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EXPECTED STRONGER NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 140600 UTC 00HR 22.9N 131.3E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR N 5KM/H P+24HR 24.6N 132.3E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 27.0N 134.4E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 30.2N 137.6E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 140600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 140600UTC 22.9N 131.3E GOOD MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 150600UTC 24.0N 131.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 160600UTC 25.5N 133.6E 160NM 70% MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 170600UTC 28.4N 135.8E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 140600 *** WARNING 140600. WARNING VALID 150600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 950 HPA AT 22.9N 131.3E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 24.0N 131.8E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 25.5N 133.6E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 28.4N 135.8E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 140600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 140600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN ACCELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH-NORTHEA ST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 140600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME TY 0520 KIROGI ANALYSIS POSITION 140600UTC 22.9N 131.3E MOVEMENT N 4KT PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 150600UTC 24.4N 131.6E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 76KT 48HR POSITION 160600UTC 26.6N 133.2E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT 72HR POSITION 170600UTC 29.4N 135.9E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 62KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 140900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 22.9N 131.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.9N 131.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 23.6N 131.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 24.3N 131.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 25.4N 132.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 26.8N 133.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 30.2N 137.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 33.8N 142.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 38.3N 151.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 140900Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 131.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 140600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 18 AT 0600 14 OCTOBER (KIROGI) (0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO THREE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT ONE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FRON CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 150600 TWO FIVE ZERO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT EIGHT EAST AND AT 160600 TWO SIX POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 140900 UTC 00HR 23.0N 131.3E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR N 5KM/H P+24HR 24.6N 132.1E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 27.2N 134.1E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 30.3N 137.2E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTJP31 RJTD 140900 *** WARNING 140900. WARNING VALID 150900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 950 HPA AT 23.0N 131.3E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150900UTC AT 24.1N 131.8E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 140900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 140900UTC 23.0N 131.3E GOOD MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 150900UTC 24.1N 131.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 160600UTC 25.5N 133.6E 160NM 70% MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 170600UTC 28.4N 135.8E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPH RPLL 140600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 18 AT 0600 14 OCTOBER, TYPHOON (KIROGI) (0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO THREE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT ONE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 150600 TWO FIVE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT EIGHT EAST AT 160600 TWO SIX POINT TWO NORTH ONE THRE THREE POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD=