** WTSR20 WSSS 131800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 140008 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 14/10/2005 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 14/10/2005 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1002 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.5S / 83.5E (NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SECTOR. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT OR EVEN GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 250 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/10/14 AT 12 UTC: 11.0S / 82.3E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/10/15 AT 00 UTC: 12.5S / 81.0E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE ON THE CLASSICAL IMAGERY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM EXISTS CLOSE TO THE ESTIMATED CENTRE BUT STILL CYCLES A LOT. WINDS ARE STRONGER IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL PRESSURES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 140025 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/2/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2005/10/14 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.5S / 83.5E (NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 300 SO: 400 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/10/14 12 UTC: 11.0S/82.3E, MAX WIND=030KT. 24H: 2005/10/15 00 UTC: 12.5S/81.0E, MAX WIND=030KT. 36H: 2005/10/15 12 UTC: 13.6S/79.4E, MAX WIND=025KT. 48H: 2005/10/16 00 UTC: 14.5S/77.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 60H: 2005/10/16 12 UTC: 15.3S/75.7E, MAX WIND=025KT. 72H: 2005/10/17 00 UTC: 16.0S/74.0E, MAX WIND=025KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0- NO RECENT AVAILABLE MICROWAVE PICTURE TO HELP TO PRECISELY LOCATE THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION CENTRE. SYSTEM IS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WINDSHEAR IS WEAK AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD. CONVECTION EXISTS NEAR THE CENTRE BUT REMAINS VERY FLUCTUATING AND CAN BARELY CONSOLIDATE. MOST NWP MODELS ANALYZE THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, TRACK IT SOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN WESTWARDS BEYOND 36 HOURS WITHOUT DEEPENING IT SIGNIFICANTLY. ONLY ARP/TROP DEEPENS IT SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND 24 HOURS AND MAKE IT TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 140000 UTC 00HR 22.6N 131.4E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR N 5KM/H P+24HR 24.0N 132.3E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 25.8N 133.7E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 27.9N 135.6E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 140000 *** WARNING 140000. WARNING VALID 150000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 940 HPA AT 22.6N 131.3E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 24.4N 132.7E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 26.3N 134.7E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 28.8N 137.3E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 140000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 140000UTC 22.6N 131.3E GOOD MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 150000UTC 24.4N 132.7E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 160000UTC 26.3N 134.7E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 170000UTC 28.8N 137.3E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 140000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 140000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NOR THEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 140300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS// 1. TYPHOON 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 22.5N 131.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 131.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 23.2N 131.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 24.0N 131.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 24.8N 132.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 26.0N 133.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 29.3N 135.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 32.3N 139.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 34.9N 143.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7N 131.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTH- EAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 140300 UTC 00HR 22.6N 131.4E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR N 5KM/H= ** WTPH RPLL 140000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 17 AT 0000 14 OCTOBER,TYPHOON (KIROGI) (0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO TWO POINT SIX NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METER PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTMD CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FOUR FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAX WINDS FOUR THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 150000 TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT FOUR EAST AT 160000 TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPSWITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTJP31 RJTD 140300 *** WARNING 140300. WARNING VALID 150300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 940 HPA AT 22.5N 131.4E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150300UTC AT 24.2N 132.5E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 140300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 140300UTC 22.5N 131.4E GOOD MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 150300UTC 24.2N 132.5E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 160000UTC 26.3N 134.7E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 170000UTC 28.8N 137.3E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 140515 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 14.10.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 10.4N 128.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2005 10.4N 128.1W WEAK 00UTC 15.10.2005 10.3N 128.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2005 9.5N 129.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2005 9.7N 129.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2005 9.8N 131.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2005 10.4N 133.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 10.5N 134.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2005 11.2N 135.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2005 11.8N 136.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2005 12.2N 137.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2005 12.3N 139.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.10.2005 12.2N 140.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 17.6N 75.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.10.2005 17.6N 75.4W WEAK 12UTC 14.10.2005 17.6N 76.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2005 17.5N 79.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2005 16.6N 79.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2005 15.2N 79.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.10.2005 16.6N 80.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2005 17.7N 79.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 17.6N 79.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2005 16.8N 79.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2005 16.7N 80.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.10.2005 17.6N 82.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.10.2005 17.4N 83.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 20.10.2005 17.4N 84.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 140515 ** WTIN20 DEMS 140524 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 14-10-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH EAST AND EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 18.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.)