** WTSR20 WSSS 130600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 131207 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 13/10/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 004/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 13/10/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1003 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.8S / 85.5E (SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/10/14 AT 00 UTC: 9.3S / 84.2E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/10/14 AT 12 UTC: 10.5S / 83.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: EASTERLY WINDSHEAR HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED, ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REBUILT NEAR THE CENTRE. HOWEVER, CONVECTION IS STILL FLUCTUATING A LOT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL PRESSURES. SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 131208 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/2/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2005/10/13 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.8S / 85.5E (SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/10/14 00 UTC: 09.3S/84.2E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2005/10/14 12 UTC: 10.5S/83.0E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2005/10/15 00 UTC: 11.6S/81.3E, MAX WIND=030KT. 48H: 2005/10/15 12 UTC: 12.5S/79.6E, MAX WIND=030KT. 60H: 2005/10/16 00 UTC: 12.9S/78.0E, MAX WIND=025KT. 72H: 2005/10/16 12 UTC: 13.1S/76.0E, MAX WIND=025KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0- CONVECTION HAS REBUILT NEAR THE CENTRE OVER THE LAST HOURS, AS THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS DECREASED. HOWEVER, CONVECTION REMAINS VERY FLUCTUATING AND CAN BARELY CONSOLIDATE. MOST NWP MODELS ANALYZE THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, TRACK IT SOUTHWESTWARDS. ARP/TROP ONLY DEEPENS IT SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND 24 HOURS. SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 131200 UTC 00HR 21.8N 131.7E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR N 5KM/H P+24HR 23.5N 131.8E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 25.5N 132.9E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 27.0N 134.1E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 131200 *** WARNING 131200. WARNING VALID 141200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 940 HPA AT 21.8N 131.8E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 23.2N 132.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 24.9N 132.7E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 26.5N 134.0E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 131200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 131200UTC 21.8N 131.8E GOOD MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 141200UTC 23.2N 132.1E 80NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 151200UTC 24.9N 132.7E 150NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 161200UTC 26.5N 134.0E 220NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 131500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 21.8N 131.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 131.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 22.3N 131.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 22.8N 132.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 23.4N 132.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 24.1N 132.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 26.4N 134.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 28.9N 136.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 31.7N 139.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: 131500Z POSITION NEAR 21.9N 131.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 131200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 15 AT 1200 13 0CTOBER, TYPHOON (KIROGI) (0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT NINE NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ZERO TWO METER PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FOUR FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 141200 TWO THREE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT ZERO EAST AT 151200 TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT SIX EAST AND AT 161200 TWO SIX POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 131500 UTC 00HR 21.9N 131.7E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR N 5KM/H= ** WTPH RPLL 131230 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 15 AT 0600 13 OCTOBER, TYPHOON (KIROGI) (0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT NINE NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILO- METER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FOUR FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 141200 TWO THREE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT ZERO EAST AT 151200 TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT SIX EAST AND AT 161200 TWO SIX POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTJP31 RJTD 131500 *** WARNING 131500. WARNING VALID 141500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 940 HPA AT 21.9N 131.8E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141500UTC AT 23.4N 132.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 131500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 131500UTC 21.9N 131.8E GOOD MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 141500UTC 23.4N 132.1E 80NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 151200UTC 24.9N 132.7E 150NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 161200UTC 26.5N 134.0E 220NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 131718 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.10.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 10.5N 102.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2005 10.5N 102.1W WEAK 00UTC 15.10.2005 11.2N 101.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2005 12.0N 102.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2005 12.2N 103.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.10.2005 12.6N 104.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2005 13.2N 104.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 14.2N 105.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2005 14.7N 107.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2005 14.8N 108.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 131718