** WTIN20 DEMS 130610 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 13-10-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH EAST AND EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 17.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTIO20 FMEE 130616 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 13/10/2005 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 003/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 13/10/2005 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1005 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.5S / 86.2E (SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTRE, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/10/13 AT 18 UTC: 7.3S / 85.4E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/10/14 AT 06 UTC: 8.2S / 84.5E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL PRESSURES, WITHOUT SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENING. SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 130617 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/2/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2005/10/13 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.5S / 86.2E (SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/10/13 18 UTC: 07.3S/85.4E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2005/10/14 06 UTC: 08.2S/84.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2005/10/14 18 UTC: 09.0S/83.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 48H: 2005/10/15 06 UTC: 10.0S/82.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 60H: 2005/10/15 18 UTC: 11.0S/81.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 72H: 2005/10/16 06 UTC: 11.5S/80.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5 LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE IS FULLY EXPOSED WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION . THIS CONVECTION IS VERY FLUCTUATING IN ACTIVITY AND SPATIAL COVERAGE. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR DOES NOT ALLOW ORGANIZATION. MOST NWP MODELS ANALYZE THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, TRACK IT SOUTHWESTWARDS, WITHOUT DEEPENING IT SIGNIFICANTLY. SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 130600 UTC 00HR 21.6N 131.8E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR N 5KM/H P+24HR 23.4N 132.0E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 25.0N 132.8E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 26.8N 134.0E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 130600 *** WARNING 130600. WARNING VALID 140600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 940 HPA AT 21.5N 131.8E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTHEAST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 22.9N 132.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 24.5N 132.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 26.1N 133.7E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 130600UTC 21.5N 131.8E GOOD MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 140600UTC 22.9N 132.0E 80NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 150600UTC 24.5N 132.5E 150NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 160600UTC 26.1N 133.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 130600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 130600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH-NORTHEA ST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 130600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME TY 0520 KIROGI ANALYSIS POSITION 130600UTC 21.5N 131.8E MOVEMENT N 3KT PRES/VMAX 940HPA 84KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 140600UTC 22.9N 131.6E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 84KT 48HR POSITION 150600UTC 24.6N 131.8E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 80KT 72HR POSITION 160600UTC 26.6N 132.9E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 76KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 130900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 21.5N 131.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 131.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 22.1N 131.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 22.7N 131.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 23.3N 131.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 24.0N 132.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 25.8N 133.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 28.0N 135.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 30.4N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 21.7N 131.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS MOVED NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.// ** WTPH RPLL 130600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 14 AT 0600 13 OCTOBER, TYPHOON (KIROGI) (0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT SIX NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILO- METER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FOUR FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 140600 TWO THREE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT NINE EAST AT 150600 TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT FOUR EAST AND AT 160600 TWO SIX POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPH RPLL 130600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 14 AT 0600 13 OCTOBER, TYPHOON (KIROGI) (0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT SIX NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILO- METER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FOUR FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 140600 TWO THREE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT NINE EAST AT 150600 TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT FOUR EAST AND AT 160600 TWO SIX POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPH RPLL 130600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 14 AT 0600 13 OCTOBER, TYPHOON (KIROGI) (0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT SIX NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILO- METER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FOUR FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 140600 TWO THREE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT NINE EAST AT 150600 TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT FOUR EAST AND AT 160600 TWO SIX POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 130900 UTC 00HR 21.7N 131.8E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR N 5KM/H P+24HR 23.5N 132.2E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 25.0N 132.9E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 26.8N 134.1E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP31 RJTD 130900 *** WARNING 130900. WARNING VALID 140900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 940 HPA AT 21.6N 131.8E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140900UTC AT 23.0N 132.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 130900UTC 21.6N 131.8E GOOD MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 140900UTC 23.0N 132.1E 80NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 150600UTC 24.5N 132.5E 150NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 160600UTC 26.1N 133.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT =