** WTSR20 WSSS 121800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 130000 UTC 00HR 21.4N 131.7E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR NNW 5KM/H P+24HR 22.8N 131.9E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 24.3N 132.2E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 26.2N 133.6E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 130000UTC 21.4N 131.7E GOOD MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 140000UTC 23.1N 132.0E 80NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 150000UTC 24.7N 132.5E 150NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 160000UTC 26.1N 133.4E 220NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 130000 *** WARNING 130000. WARNING VALID 140000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 940 HPA AT 21.4N 131.7E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 23.1N 132.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 24.7N 132.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 26.1N 133.4E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 130000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 130000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH-NORTHEA ST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 130300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 21.4N 131.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N 131.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 22.0N 131.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 22.6N 131.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 23.3N 131.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 24.0N 131.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 25.5N 132.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 27.7N 134.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 30.1N 136.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: 130300Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 131.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 130300 UTC 00HR 21.5N 131.6E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR NNW 5KM/H= ** WTPH RPLL 130000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 13 AT 0000 13 TYPHOON (KIROGI) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METER PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADUIS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE THREE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADUIS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 140000 TWO THREE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT SIX EAST AT 150000 TWO FIVE POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT EIGHT EAST AND AT 160000 TWO SEVEN POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE - HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD. WEATHER MANILA ** WTJP31 RJTD 130300 *** WARNING 130300. WARNING VALID 140300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 940 HPA AT 21.4N 131.6E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140300UTC AT 23.1N 131.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 130300UTC 21.4N 131.6E GOOD MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 140300UTC 23.1N 131.8E 80NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 150000UTC 24.7N 132.5E 150NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 160000UTC 26.1N 133.4E 220NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 130525 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 13.10.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 11.3N 101.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2005 11.3N 101.7W WEAK 00UTC 15.10.2005 11.6N 101.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2005 12.0N 101.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2005 12.2N 101.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2005 12.2N 102.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2005 12.2N 102.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 12.7N 102.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2005 12.8N 102.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2005 12.8N 103.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2005 12.9N 104.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 17.1N 79.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.10.2005 17.1N 79.9W WEAK 00UTC 16.10.2005 17.0N 79.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.10.2005 17.0N 80.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2005 16.5N 80.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 15.9N 80.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2005 15.4N 80.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2005 15.3N 82.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2005 15.8N 83.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 130525