** WTNT80 EGRR 121723 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.10.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 10.4N 102.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2005 10.4N 102.1W WEAK 00UTC 15.10.2005 11.3N 101.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2005 12.0N 102.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2005 12.2N 103.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2005 12.7N 104.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2005 13.6N 105.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 14.2N 105.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2005 14.7N 107.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2005 15.2N 108.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 25.6N 67.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2005 25.6N 67.2W WEAK 00UTC 13.10.2005 28.8N 64.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.10.2005 31.8N 64.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.10.2005 34.1N 64.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2005 EXTRA TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 17.5N 73.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2005 17.5N 73.5W WEAK 00UTC 13.10.2005 19.7N 77.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2005 17.3N 75.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2005 17.7N 76.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2005 16.2N 77.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2005 16.9N 76.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2005 16.4N 78.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2005 16.4N 79.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2005 18.1N 80.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2005 18.2N 80.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 17.2N 82.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2005 17.1N 83.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2005 16.5N 84.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 121723 ** WTNT80 EGRR 121724 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.10.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 10.4N 102.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2005 10.4N 102.1W WEAK 00UTC 15.10.2005 11.3N 101.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2005 12.0N 102.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2005 12.2N 103.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2005 12.7N 104.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2005 13.6N 105.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 14.2N 105.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2005 14.7N 107.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2005 15.2N 108.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 25.6N 67.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2005 25.6N 67.2W WEAK 00UTC 13.10.2005 28.8N 64.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.10.2005 31.8N 64.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.10.2005 34.1N 64.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2005 EXTRA TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 17.5N 73.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2005 17.5N 73.5W WEAK 00UTC 13.10.2005 19.7N 77.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2005 17.3N 75.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2005 17.7N 76.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2005 16.2N 77.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2005 16.9N 76.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2005 16.4N 78.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2005 16.4N 79.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2005 18.1N 80.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2005 18.2N 80.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 17.2N 82.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2005 17.1N 83.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2005 16.5N 84.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 121724 ** WTNT80 EGRR 121725 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.10.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 10.4N 102.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2005 10.4N 102.1W WEAK 00UTC 15.10.2005 11.3N 101.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2005 12.0N 102.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2005 12.2N 103.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2005 12.7N 104.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2005 13.6N 105.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 14.2N 105.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2005 14.7N 107.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2005 15.2N 108.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 25.6N 67.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2005 25.6N 67.2W WEAK 00UTC 13.10.2005 28.8N 64.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.10.2005 31.8N 64.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.10.2005 34.1N 64.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2005 EXTRA TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 17.5N 73.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2005 17.5N 73.5W WEAK 00UTC 13.10.2005 19.7N 77.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2005 17.3N 75.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2005 17.7N 76.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2005 16.2N 77.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2005 16.9N 76.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2005 16.4N 78.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2005 16.4N 79.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2005 18.1N 80.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2005 18.2N 80.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 17.2N 82.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2005 17.1N 83.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2005 16.5N 84.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 121725 ** WTNT80 EGRR 121723 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.10.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 10.4N 102.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2005 10.4N 102.1W WEAK 00UTC 15.10.2005 11.3N 101.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2005 12.0N 102.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2005 12.2N 103.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2005 12.7N 104.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2005 13.6N 105.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 14.2N 105.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2005 14.7N 107.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2005 15.2N 108.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 25.6N 67.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2005 25.6N 67.2W WEAK 00UTC 13.10.2005 28.8N 64.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.10.2005 31.8N 64.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.10.2005 34.1N 64.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2005 EXTRA TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 17.5N 73.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2005 17.5N 73.5W WEAK 00UTC 13.10.2005 19.7N 77.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2005 17.3N 75.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2005 17.7N 76.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2005 16.2N 77.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2005 16.9N 76.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2005 16.4N 78.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2005 16.4N 79.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2005 18.1N 80.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2005 18.2N 80.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 17.2N 82.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2005 17.1N 83.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2005 16.5N 84.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 121723 ** WTNT80 EGRR 121724 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.10.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 10.4N 102.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2005 10.4N 102.1W WEAK 00UTC 15.10.2005 11.3N 101.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2005 12.0N 102.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2005 12.2N 103.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2005 12.7N 104.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2005 13.6N 105.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 14.2N 105.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2005 14.7N 107.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2005 15.2N 108.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 25.6N 67.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2005 25.6N 67.2W WEAK 00UTC 13.10.2005 28.8N 64.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.10.2005 31.8N 64.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.10.2005 34.1N 64.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2005 EXTRA TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 17.5N 73.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2005 17.5N 73.5W WEAK 00UTC 13.10.2005 19.7N 77.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2005 17.3N 75.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2005 17.7N 76.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2005 16.2N 77.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2005 16.9N 76.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2005 16.4N 78.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2005 16.4N 79.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2005 18.1N 80.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2005 18.2N 80.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 17.2N 82.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2005 17.1N 83.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2005 16.5N 84.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 121724 ** WTNT80 EGRR 121725 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.10.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 10.4N 102.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2005 10.4N 102.1W WEAK 00UTC 15.10.2005 11.3N 101.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2005 12.0N 102.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2005 12.2N 103.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2005 12.7N 104.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2005 13.6N 105.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 14.2N 105.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2005 14.7N 107.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2005 15.2N 108.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 25.6N 67.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2005 25.6N 67.2W WEAK 00UTC 13.10.2005 28.8N 64.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.10.2005 31.8N 64.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.10.2005 34.1N 64.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2005 EXTRA TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 17.5N 73.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2005 17.5N 73.5W WEAK 00UTC 13.10.2005 19.7N 77.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2005 17.3N 75.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2005 17.7N 76.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2005 16.2N 77.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2005 16.9N 76.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2005 16.4N 78.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2005 16.4N 79.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2005 18.1N 80.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2005 18.2N 80.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 17.2N 82.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2005 17.1N 83.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2005 16.5N 84.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 121725 ** WTNT80 EGRR 121723 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.10.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 10.4N 102.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2005 10.4N 102.1W WEAK 00UTC 15.10.2005 11.3N 101.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2005 12.0N 102.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2005 12.2N 103.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2005 12.7N 104.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2005 13.6N 105.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 14.2N 105.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2005 14.7N 107.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2005 15.2N 108.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 25.6N 67.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2005 25.6N 67.2W WEAK 00UTC 13.10.2005 28.8N 64.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.10.2005 31.8N 64.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.10.2005 34.1N 64.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2005 EXTRA TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 17.5N 73.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2005 17.5N 73.5W WEAK 00UTC 13.10.2005 19.7N 77.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2005 17.3N 75.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2005 17.7N 76.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2005 16.2N 77.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2005 16.9N 76.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2005 16.4N 78.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2005 16.4N 79.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2005 18.1N 80.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2005 18.2N 80.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 17.2N 82.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2005 17.1N 83.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2005 16.5N 84.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 121723 ** WTNT80 EGRR 121724 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.10.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 10.4N 102.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2005 10.4N 102.1W WEAK 00UTC 15.10.2005 11.3N 101.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2005 12.0N 102.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2005 12.2N 103.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2005 12.7N 104.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2005 13.6N 105.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 14.2N 105.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2005 14.7N 107.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2005 15.2N 108.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 25.6N 67.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2005 25.6N 67.2W WEAK 00UTC 13.10.2005 28.8N 64.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.10.2005 31.8N 64.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.10.2005 34.1N 64.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2005 EXTRA TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 17.5N 73.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2005 17.5N 73.5W WEAK 00UTC 13.10.2005 19.7N 77.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2005 17.3N 75.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2005 17.7N 76.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2005 16.2N 77.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2005 16.9N 76.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2005 16.4N 78.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2005 16.4N 79.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2005 18.1N 80.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2005 18.2N 80.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 17.2N 82.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2005 17.1N 83.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2005 16.5N 84.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 121724 ** WTNT80 EGRR 121725 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.10.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 10.4N 102.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2005 10.4N 102.1W WEAK 00UTC 15.10.2005 11.3N 101.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2005 12.0N 102.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2005 12.2N 103.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2005 12.7N 104.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2005 13.6N 105.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 14.2N 105.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2005 14.7N 107.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2005 15.2N 108.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 25.6N 67.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2005 25.6N 67.2W WEAK 00UTC 13.10.2005 28.8N 64.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.10.2005 31.8N 64.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.10.2005 34.1N 64.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2005 EXTRA TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 17.5N 73.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2005 17.5N 73.5W WEAK 00UTC 13.10.2005 19.7N 77.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2005 17.3N 75.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2005 17.7N 76.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2005 16.2N 77.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2005 16.9N 76.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2005 16.4N 78.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2005 16.4N 79.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2005 18.1N 80.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2005 18.2N 80.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 17.2N 82.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2005 17.1N 83.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2005 16.5N 84.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 121725 ** WTPQ20 RJTD 121800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 121800UTC 21.1N 131.9E GOOD MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 131800UTC 22.6N 132.1E 80NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 141800UTC 23.8N 132.5E 150NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 72HF 151800UTC 25.3N 133.3E 220NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 121800 *** WARNING 121800. WARNING VALID 131800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 935 HPA AT 21.1N 131.9E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 22.6N 132.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 23.8N 132.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 25.3N 133.3E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 121800 UTC 00HR 21.1N 131.9E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR NNW 5KM/H P+24HR 22.7N 131.7E 930HPA 55M/S P+48HR 24.3N 132.0E 925HPA 60M/S P+72HR 26.0N 133.0E 930HPA 55M/S= ** WTNT80 EGRR 121723 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.10.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 10.4N 102.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2005 10.4N 102.1W WEAK 00UTC 15.10.2005 11.3N 101.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2005 12.0N 102.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2005 12.2N 103.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2005 12.7N 104.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2005 13.6N 105.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 14.2N 105.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2005 14.7N 107.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2005 15.2N 108.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 25.6N 67.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2005 25.6N 67.2W WEAK 00UTC 13.10.2005 28.8N 64.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.10.2005 31.8N 64.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.10.2005 34.1N 64.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2005 EXTRA TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 17.5N 73.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2005 17.5N 73.5W WEAK 00UTC 13.10.2005 19.7N 77.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2005 17.3N 75.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2005 17.7N 76.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2005 16.2N 77.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2005 16.9N 76.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2005 16.4N 78.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2005 16.4N 79.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2005 18.1N 80.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2005 18.2N 80.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 17.2N 82.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2005 17.1N 83.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2005 16.5N 84.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 121723 ** WTJP31 RJTD 122100 *** WARNING 122100. WARNING VALID 132100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 935 HPA AT 21.3N 131.9E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 132100UTC AT 22.7N 132.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 122100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 122100UTC 21.3N 131.9E GOOD MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 132100UTC 22.7N 132.1E 80NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 141800UTC 23.8N 132.5E 150NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 69HF 151800UTC 25.3N 133.3E 220NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPH RPLL 121800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 12 AT 1800 12 OCTOBER, TYPHOON (KIROGI) (0520) HAS INTENSIFIED FURTHER AND WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 21.1N 131.9E FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT 02MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 45MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 150KMS 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 131800 24.0N 132.0E AT 141800 25.6N 132.3E AND AT 151800 27.2N 133.1E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA PD=