** WTSR20 WSSS 120600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 121210 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 12/10/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 002/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 12/10/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1005 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.2S / 86.6E (FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS TO THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS TO THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/10/13 AT 00 UTC: 5.4S / 86.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/10/13 AT 12 UTC: 5.8S / 85.5E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT ENTIRELY FAVOURABLE FOR THE SYSTEM , IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING SLOWLY WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS. FOR THE MOMENT, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT REQUIRE REGULAR ADVISORY ISSUANCE.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 121210 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/2/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2005/10/12 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.2S / 86.6E (FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/10/13 00 UTC: 05.4S/86.0E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2005/10/13 12 UTC: 05.8S/85.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2005/10/14 00 UTC: 06.4S/84.9E, MAX WIND=025KT. 48H: 2005/10/14 12 UTC: 07.3S/84.0E, MAX WIND=025KT. 60H: 2005/10/15 00 UTC: 07.9S/83.0E, MAX WIND=025KT. 72H: 2005/10/15 12 UTC: 08.2S/81.8E, MAX WIND=025KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5 SYSTEM NR 2 IS MOVING OVER SST REACHING 28 TO 29 DEGREES, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA ; ALOFT, DIVERGENCE IS GOOD IN THE VICINITY OF A LARGE RIDGE. NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION REMAINS FLUCTUATING AND CAN NOT CONSOLIDATE UNDER A RATHER STRONG NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEA R ; THIS CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS. MOST NWP MODELS ANALYZE THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, TRACK IT SOUTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING IT SLIGHTLY. FOR THE MOMENT, THE SYSTEM DOES NOT REQUIRE REGULAR ADVISORY ISSUANCE.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 121200 UTC 00HR 20.9N 132.1E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NNW 5KM/H P+24HR 22.0N 131.8E 935HPA 55M/S P+48HR 23.5N 131.8E 945HPA 50M/S P+72HR 25.4N 132.2E 945HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 121200 *** WARNING 121200. WARNING VALID 131200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 935 HPA AT 20.8N 132.2E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 22.1N 132.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 23.2N 132.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 24.6N 132.7E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 121200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 121200UTC 20.8N 132.2E GOOD MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 131200UTC 22.1N 132.3E 80NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 141200UTC 23.2N 132.3E 150NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 151200UTC 24.6N 132.7E 220NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 121500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 20.9N 132.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 132.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 21.5N 131.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 22.4N 131.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 23.0N 131.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 23.6N 131.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 24.3N 132.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 25.0N 132.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 25.7N 133.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 132.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 121200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 11 AT 1200 12 OCTOBER, TYPHOON (KIROGI) (0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT NINE NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ZERO TWO METER PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FOUR FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WIND FOUR THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 131200 TWO TWO POINT SIX NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT SEVEN EAST AT 141200 TWO FOUR POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT EIGHT EAST AND AT 151200 TWO FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 121200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 11 AT 1200 12 OCTOBER, TYPHOON (KIROGI) (0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT NINE NORTH ONE TRHEE TWO POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTH AT ZERO TWO METER PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FOUR FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE TWO ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 141200 24.4 NORTH 131.8 EAST AND AT 151200 25.9 NORTH 132.1 EAST AND AT 151200 25.9 NORTH 132.1 EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTJP31 RJTD 121500 *** WARNING 121500. WARNING VALID 131500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 935 HPA AT 20.9N 132.2E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131500UTC AT 22.3N 132.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 121500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 121500UTC 20.9N 132.2E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 131500UTC 22.3N 132.3E 80NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 141200UTC 23.2N 132.3E 150NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 151200UTC 24.6N 132.7E 220NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT =