** WTIO20 FMEE 120611 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 12/10/2005 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 001/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 12/10/2005 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1005 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.5S / 87.2E (FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 250 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, EXTENDING UP TO 500 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS TO THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS TO THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/10/12 AT 18 UTC: 5.8S / 86.6E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/10/13 AT 06 UTC: 6.1S / 86.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT ENTIRELY FAVOURABLE FOR THE SYSTEM ; SYSTEM #2 IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING SLOWLY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 120611 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/2/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2005/10/12 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.5S / 87.2E (FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/10/12 18 UTC: 05.8S/86.6E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2005/10/13 06 UTC: 06.1S/86.0E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2005/10/13 18 UTC: 06.5S/85.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 48H: 2005/10/14 06 UTC: 06.8S/84.8E, MAX WIND=025KT. 60H: 2005/10/14 18 UTC: 07.3S/83.8E, MAX WIND=030KT. 72H: 2005/10/15 06 UTC: 08.0S/83.0E, MAX WIND=030KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5 CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS STRONG NEAR THE SYSTEM BUT REMAINS FLUCTUANTING. THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY UNDERGOES AN UNFAVOURABLE NORTHWESTERN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT THIS CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU=48. SYSTEM #2 IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE TROUGH, INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 120610 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 12-10-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING ANDAMAN SEA AND EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER SOUTH MAHARASHTRA , SOUTH KARNATAKA, GOA, COASTAL KARNATAKA, KERALA AND OVER ADJOINING ARABIAN SEA. RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 18.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTIO21 FMEE 120611 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 12/10/2005 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 001/02 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MERCREDI 12/10/2005 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 2 1005 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 5.5S / 87.2E (CINQ DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-SEPT DEGRES DEUX EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST, ET JUSQU'A 500 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT LE GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD JUSQU'A 180 MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 12/10/2005 A 18 UTC: 5.8S / 86.6E, VENT MAX = 25 KT. A 24H POUR LE 13/10/2005 A 06 UTC: 6.1S / 86.0E, VENT MAX = 25 KT. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LES CONDITIONS NE SONT PAS ENCORE TOTALEMENT FAVORABLES POUR LE SYSTEME, IL EST PREVU SE DEPLACER VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN S'INTENSIFIANT LENTEMENT. ** WTIO20 FMEE 120611 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 12/10/2005 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 001/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 12/10/2005 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1005 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.5S / 87.2E (FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 250 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, EXTENDING UP TO 500 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS TO THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS TO THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/10/12 AT 18 UTC: 5.8S / 86.6E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/10/13 AT 06 UTC: 6.1S / 86.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT ENTIRELY FAVOURABLE FOR THE SYSTEM ; SYSTEM #2 IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING SLOWLY. ** WTIO30 FMEE 120611 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/2/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2005/10/12 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.5S / 87.2E (FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/10/12 18 UTC: 05.8S/86.6E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2005/10/13 06 UTC: 06.1S/86.0E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2005/10/13 18 UTC: 06.5S/85.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 48H: 2005/10/14 06 UTC: 06.8S/84.8E, MAX WIND=025KT. 60H: 2005/10/14 18 UTC: 07.3S/83.8E, MAX WIND=030KT. 72H: 2005/10/15 06 UTC: 08.0S/83.0E, MAX WIND=030KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5 CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS STRONG NEAR THE SYSTEM BUT REMAINS FLUCTUANTING. THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY UNDERGOES AN UNFAVOURABLE NORTHWESTERN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT THIS CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU=48. SYSTEM #2 IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE TROUGH, INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY. ** WTJP21 RJTD 120600 *** WARNING 120600. WARNING VALID 130600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 935 HPA AT 20.6N 132.3E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 21.7N 132.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 22.9N 132.2E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 24.2N 132.5E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 120600UTC 20.6N 132.3E GOOD MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 130600UTC 21.7N 132.2E 80NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 140600UTC 22.9N 132.2E 150NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 150600UTC 24.2N 132.5E 220NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 120600 UTC 00HR 20.6N 132.3E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NNW 5KM/H P+24HR 21.8N 131.6E 920HPA 60M/S P+48HR 23.4N 131.3E 920HPA 60M/S P+72HR 24.9N 131.6E 930HPA 55M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 120600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 120600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL BE STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 120600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME TY 0520 KIROGI ANALYSIS POSITION 120600UTC 20.6N 132.3E MOVEMENT NW 3KT PRES/VMAX 935HPA 89KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 130600UTC 21.5N 131.7E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 930HPA 93KT 48HR POSITION 140600UTC 22.8N 131.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 925HPA 97KT 72HR POSITION 150600UTC 24.5N 131.3E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 930HPA 93KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 120900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 20.7N 132.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 132.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 21.4N 131.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 22.4N 131.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 23.1N 131.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 24.0N 131.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 25.2N 132.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 26.3N 133.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 27.6N 135.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: 120900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 132.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 120600 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 10 AT 0600 12 OCTOBER, TYPHOON (KIROGI) {0520} WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT SIX NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO ONE METER PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FOUR FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE TWO ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 130600 TWO ONE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT EIGHT EAST AT 140600 TWO ONE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT FOUR EAST AND AT 150600 TWO TWO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA = ** WTJP31 RJTD 120900 *** WARNING 120900. WARNING VALID 130900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 935 HPA AT 20.7N 132.3E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130900UTC AT 21.9N 132.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 120900UTC 20.7N 132.3E GOOD MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 130900UTC 21.9N 132.2E 80NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 140600UTC 22.9N 132.2E 150NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 150600UTC 24.2N 132.5E 220NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTPH RPLL 120600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 10 AT 0600 12 OCTOBER, TYPHOON (KIROGI) (0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT SIX NORTH ONE TRHEE TWO POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO ONE METER PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FOUR FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE TWO ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 130600 TWO ONE POINT TWO NROTH ONE THREE ONE POINT EIHGT EAST AT 140600 TWO ONE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT FOUR EAST AND AT 150600 TWO TWO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD