** WTSR20 WSSS 111800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 120000 UTC 00HR 20.4N 132.5E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 5KM/H P+24HR 21.0N 131.4E 920HPA 60M/S P+48HR 22.0N 131.3E 920HPA 60M/S P+72HR 22.9N 131.4E 930HPA 55M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 120000 *** WARNING 120000. WARNING VALID 130000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 940 HPA AT 20.5N 132.5E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 21.3N 132.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 22.5N 132.0E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 23.7N 131.8E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 120000UTC 20.5N 132.5E GOOD MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 130000UTC 21.3N 132.3E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 140000UTC 22.5N 132.0E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 925HPA MXWD 090KT 72HF 150000UTC 23.7N 131.8E 220NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 925HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 120000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 120000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL BE STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWE ST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 120300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 20.5N 132.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 132.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 20.7N 132.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 21.4N 131.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 22.2N 131.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 23.0N 131.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 24.5N 131.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 25.9N 132.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 27.3N 134.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT --- REMARKS: 120300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 132.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 120300 *** WARNING 120300. WARNING VALID 130300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 940 HPA AT 20.5N 132.4E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130300UTC AT 21.4N 132.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 120300UTC 20.5N 132.4E GOOD MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 130300UTC 21.4N 132.2E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 140000UTC 22.5N 132.0E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 925HPA MXWD 090KT 69HF 150000UTC 23.7N 131.8E 220NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 925HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 120000 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 09 AT 0000 12 OCTOBER, TYPHOON (KIROGI)(0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO FIVE NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AT ZERO ONE METER PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMINAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FOUR FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE TWO ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 130000 TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE POINT ZERO EAST AT 140000 TWO ONE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT FIVE EAST AND AT 150000 TWO ONE POINT NINE NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 120000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 09 AT 0000 12 OCTOBER TYPHOON (KIROGI) (0520) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 20.5N 132.4E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST THE NORTHWEST AT 01MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 HECTO- PASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 43MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 120KMS 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSTIONS AT 130000 20.7N 132.0E AT 140000 21.2N 131.5E AND AT 150000 21.9N 131.4E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTNT80 EGRR 120515 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.10.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 11.9N 102.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.10.2005 11.9N 102.0W WEAK 12UTC 14.10.2005 12.0N 101.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.10.2005 12.2N 101.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2005 12.7N 101.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2005 13.1N 103.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2005 13.1N 103.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2005 13.8N 104.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2005 14.5N 105.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2005 14.3N 107.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 120515