** WTSR20 WSSS 110600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 111200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 111200 UTC 00HR 20.7N 132.8E 965HPA 40M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR SW 5KM/H P+24HR 20.4N 131.9E 965HPA 40M/S P+48HR 20.9N 130.8E 960HPA 45M/S P+72HR 23.3N 130.4E 960HPA 45M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 111200 *** WARNING 111200. WARNING VALID 121200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 950 HPA AT 20.7N 132.9E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING SOUTHSOUTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 21.5N 132.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 22.6N 131.8E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 23.8N 131.4E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 111200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 111200UTC 20.7N 132.9E GOOD MOVE SSW SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 121200UTC 21.5N 132.4E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 131200UTC 22.6N 131.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 72HF 141200UTC 23.8N 131.4E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 111500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 006 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 21W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 20.7N 132.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 132.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 20.7N 132.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 21.1N 131.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 21.5N 131.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 22.1N 131.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 22.7N 131.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 23.2N 131.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 23.6N 131.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT --- REMARKS: 111500Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 132.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 111500 *** WARNING 111500. WARNING VALID 121500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0520 KIROGI (0520) 950 HPA AT 20.6N 132.9E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121500UTC AT 21.5N 132.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 111500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 111500UTC 20.6N 132.9E GOOD MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 121500UTC 21.5N 132.4E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 131200UTC 22.6N 131.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 69HF 141200UTC 23.8N 131.4E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 111200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 07 AT 1200 11 OCTOBER, TYPHOON (KIROGI) (0520) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METER PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 121200 TWO ZERO POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT THREE EAST AT 131200 ONE NINE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT SIX EAST AND AT 141200 TWO ZERO POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 111200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 07 AT 1200 11 OCTOBER, TYPHOON (KIROGI) (0520) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 20.8N 132.8E FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AT 02MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 350MPS NEAR CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 150KMS 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 121200 20.1N 131.3E AT 131200 19.9N 129.6E AND AT 141200 20.1N 127.8E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT80 EGRR 111739 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.10.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+72 : 10.7N 101.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2005 10.7N 101.3W WEAK 00UTC 15.10.2005 11.2N 100.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2005 11.2N 100.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2005 11.2N 100.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2005 11.2N 101.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2005 11.4N 102.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.10.2005 11.9N 103.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 22.2N 66.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.10.2005 21.5N 68.7W WEAK 00UTC 12.10.2005 24.1N 68.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2005 26.8N 67.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2005 28.7N 66.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2005 31.1N 65.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 111739 ** WTNT80 EGRR 111739 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.10.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+72 : 10.7N 101.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2005 10.7N 101.3W WEAK 00UTC 15.10.2005 11.2N 100.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2005 11.2N 100.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2005 11.2N 100.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2005 11.2N 101.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2005 11.4N 102.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.10.2005 11.9N 103.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 22.2N 66.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.10.2005 21.5N 68.7W WEAK 00UTC 12.10.2005 24.1N 68.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2005 26.8N 67.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2005 28.7N 66.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2005 31.1N 65.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 111739