** WTSR20 WSSS 101800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 110000 *** WARNING 110000. WARNING VALID 120000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0520 KIROGI (0520) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 985 HPA AT 21.4N 133.1E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING SOUTHSOUTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 21.5N 132.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 22.6N 132.2E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 24.3N 132.3E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 110000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0520 KIROGI (0520) UPGRADED FROM TS ANALYSIS PSTN 110000UTC 21.4N 133.1E GOOD MOVE SSW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 120000UTC 21.5N 132.8E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 130000UTC 22.6N 132.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 140000UTC 24.3N 132.3E 220NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 110000 UTC 00HR 21.8N 133.1E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR SW 5KM/H P+24HR 21.2N 132.3E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 20.4N 131.6E 985HPA 28M/S P+72HR 21.0N 130.0E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 110000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR STS 0520 KIROGI (0520) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 110000 UTC IS GOOD. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 110300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 21.2N 133.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 133.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 21.0N 133.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 20.9N 133.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 21.1N 133.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 21.8N 134.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 23.1N 135.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 24.2N 136.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 25.9N 138.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 133.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.// ** WTNT43 KNHC 110227 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2005 WELL... THE LONG AND STRANGE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON CONTINUES AS TROPICAL STORM VINCE BEARS DOWN ON THE SOUTHERN IBERIAN PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MOROCCO. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE COME DOWN CONSIDERABLY AND WERE A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT AT 00Z FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. HOWEVER... A SMALL BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH TOPS TO -50C HAS REDEVELOPED SINCE THEN ABOUT 50 NMI NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ALSO... A LATE ARRIVING 10/2100Z OBSERVATION FROM SHIP V2ON3 LOCATED ABOUT 90 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER INDICATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 41 KT. QUALITY-CONTROL CHECKS BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER INDICATE THE WIND AND PRESSURE DATA WERE VIABLE... SO THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT AS IT WAS 18Z SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE CLOUD PATTERN NOTED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THAT TIME. THE 34-KT AND 12-FT SEAS RADII WERE INCREASED BASED ON THE REPORT FROM SHIP V20N3 AND OTHER NEARBY SHIPS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/20. VINCE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR VINCE TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN PORTUGAL AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN SPAIN BETWEEN 06-12Z. AFTER MOVING INLAND... VINCE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER INTERIOR SPAIN. HOWEVER... WINDS MAY STILL BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM-FORCE IN 12-HOURS IN THE STRAIT OF GILBRATAR DUE TO THE STRONG FUNNELING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE... WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE IN THAT AREA WITH EASTWARD-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS... EVEN IF VINCE IS AN EXTREMELY RARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS PART OF THE WORLD. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 36.4N 9.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 37.9N 6.1W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 24HR VT 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND OVER SPAIN $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 110227 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM VINCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232005 0300Z TUE OCT 11 2005 INTERESTS IN AND NEAR EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTUGAL... SOUTHWESTERN SPAIN... AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MOROCCO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VINCE THROUGH TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 9.5W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 100SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 9.5W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 10.6W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 37.9N 6.1W...DISSIPATING OVER SWRN SPAIN MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED OVER NORTHEASTERN SPAIN REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.4N 9.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 110228 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM VINCE ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MON OCT 10 2005 ...VINCE STILL MAINTAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHERN PORTUGAL AND SOUTHWESTERN SPAIN... INTERESTS IN AND NEAR EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTUGAL... SOUTHWESTERN SPAIN... AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MOROCCO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VINCE THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VINCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 9.5 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...85 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO DE SAO VICENTE OR THE SOUTHWESTERNMOST TIP OF PORTUGAL. VINCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY. VINCE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTS PORTUGAL AND SOUTHWESTERN SPAIN AROUND SUNRISE LOCAL TIME TUESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM ...MAINLY EAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF VINCE REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH...76 KM/HR. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS... WILL BE POSSIBLE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTUGAL... SOUTHWESTERN SPAIN... AND NORTHWESTERN MOROCCO. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...36.4 N... 9.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 110000 *** TTT GALE WARNING AT 0000 11 OCTOBER,TROPICAL STORM(KIROGI) (0520) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST SLOWLY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FORECAST POSITIONS AT 120000 TWO ONE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT FOUR EAST AT 130000 TWO ONE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT SIX EAST AND AT 140000 TWO TWO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA = ** WTPH RPLL 110000 *** TTT GALE WARNING 05 AT 0000 11 OCTOBER, TROPICAL STORM (KIROGI) (0520) HAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 21.4N 133.2E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SOUTHEAST SLOWLY ROUGH TO HIGH S AS WITHIN 150 KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 23MPS NEAR CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FORECAST POSITIONS AT 120000 21.2N, 133.4E AT 130000 22.8N 133.6E AT 140000 22.5N 133.3E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 110300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 110300UTC 21.2N 133.0E GOOD MOVE SSW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 120300UTC 21.7N 132.7E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 130000UTC 22.6N 132.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 140000UTC 24.3N 132.3E 220NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 110300 *** WARNING 110300. WARNING VALID 120300. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0520 KIROGI (0520) 985 HPA AT 21.2N 133.0E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING SOUTHSOUTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120300UTC AT 21.7N 132.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=