** WTPQ20 BABJ 101800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 101800 UTC 00HR 22.1N 133.4E 1000HPA 18M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR SW 5KM/H P+24HR 21.9N 132.9E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 22.6N 131.7E 985HPA 28M/S P+72HR 23.4N 131.4E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 101800 *** WARNING 101800. WARNING VALID 111800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0520 KIROGI (0520) 990 HPA AT 21.9N 133.2E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 21.6N 132.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 22.1N 131.9E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 22.9N 131.6E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 101800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 101800UTC 21.9N 133.2E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 111800UTC 21.6N 132.6E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 121800UTC 22.1N 131.9E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 72HF 131800UTC 22.9N 131.6E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 101800 UTC 00HR 22.1N 133.4E 1000HPA 18M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR SW 5KM/H P+24HR 21.9N 132.9E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 22.6N 131.7E 985HPA 28M/S P+72HR 23.4N 131.4E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 102100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 21.7N 133.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 133.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 20.9N 133.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 20.1N 133.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 20.1N 134.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 20.9N 134.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 22.6N 136.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 24.3N 137.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 26.7N 140.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT --- REMARKS: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 102100Z POSITION NEAR 21.5N 133.5E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.// ** WTNT23 KNHC 102033 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM VINCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232005 2100Z MON OCT 10 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 11.6W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 75SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 11.6W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 12.8W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 37.5N 8.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.9N 11.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 102038 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM VINCE ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2005 ...VINCE ABOUT TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION AS IT RACES EASTWARD... ...REMNANTS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE NEAR SOUTHERN PORTUGAL... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VINCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 11.6 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES... 275 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO DE SAO VICENTE OR THE SOUTHWESTERNMOST TIP OF PORTUGAL. VINCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH... 41 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE REMNANT LOW OF VINCE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHERN PORTUGAL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED... AND VINCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SHORTLY AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...35.9 N... 11.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 102049 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2005 THE BURST OF CONVECTION THAT BEGAN ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER AT ABOUT THE TIME OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DID NOT LAST LONG... AND THE CONVECTION IS JUST ABOUT GONE. SSTS NEAR 22C AND PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A STEADY DECLINE. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT... WHICH LEANS WEAKER THAN A BLEND OF THE 18Z DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS... 2.5/3.0... DUE TO THE NEARLY COMPLETE ABSENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION. EVEN WITHOUT THE CONVECTION... THE CENTRAL PRESSURE MIGHT STILL BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 35 KT. VINCE PASSED DIRECTLY OVER BUOY 44743... OPERATED BY THE EUROPEAN GROUP ON OCEAN STATIONS... WHICH MEASURED A PRESSURE NEAR 997 MB AT 14Z... WHICH IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN HAD BEEN ESTIMATED AT THE TIME. HOWEVER... VINCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SHORTLY AND NOT LONG AFTER THAT DEGENERATE INTO A REMANT LOW LATER TONIGHT. VINCE IS RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 22 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE HEADING AND SPEED ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE LANDFALL OF THE REMNANT LOW. IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BEFORE THE FRONT CAN ABSORB IT. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 35.9N 11.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 37.5N 8.0W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 101800 *** T T T GALE WARNING 04 AT 1800 10 OCTOBER, TROPICAL STORM (KIROGI)(0520) HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED AND WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT TWO EAST FORECAS TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTERESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FORECAST POSITIONS AT 111800 TWO ONE POINT SIX NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT ONE EAST AT 121800 TWO TWO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT ONE EAST AND AT 131800 TWO TWO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 101800 *** TTT GALE WARNING 04 AT 1800 10 OCTOBER, TROPICAL STORM (KIROGI) (0520) HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 21.8N 133.2E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 02 MPS ROUGH ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150 KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 20 MPS NEAR CENTER 13 MPS WITHIN 150 KMS RADIUS FORECAST POSITIONS AT 111800 21.6, 131.1E AT 121800 22.0N 129.1E AT 131800 22.8N 127.0E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA REQUESTED TO SEND THREE- HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP31 RJTD 102100 *** WARNING 102100. WARNING VALID 112100. TYPHOON WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0520 KIROGI (0520) 990 HPA AT 21.6N 133.1E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 112100UTC AT 21.4N 132.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 102100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 102100UTC 21.6N 133.1E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 112100UTC 21.4N 132.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 121800UTC 22.1N 131.9E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 69HF 131800UTC 22.9N 131.6E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT =