** WTSR20 WSSS 100600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 101200 UTC 00HR 22.5N 133.6E 1000HPA 18M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR W 8KM/H P+24HR 22.3N 133.0E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 22.7N 132.2E 985HPA 28M/S P+72HR 23.4N 131.6E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 101200 *** WARNING 101200. WARNING VALID 111200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0520 KIROGI (0520) 1000 HPA AT 22.1N 133.4E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING SOUTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 21.9N 132.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 22.4N 132.4E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 23.1N 131.7E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 101200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 101200UTC 22.1N 133.4E FAIR MOVE SW SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 111200UTC 21.9N 132.9E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 121200UTC 22.4N 132.4E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 131200UTC 23.1N 131.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 101500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 22.2N 133.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 133.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 21.8N 132.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 21.7N 131.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 22.2N 131.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 23.2N 130.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 25.5N 131.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 133.2E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.// ** WTNT23 KNHC 101438 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM VINCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232005 1500Z MON OCT 10 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 14.2W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 14.2W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 15.3W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 36.4N 11.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...ASBORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.9N 14.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 101439 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM VINCE ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005 ...VINCE WEAKENING AND ACCELERATING EASTWARD... AT 11 AM EDT... 1500Z... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VINCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 14.2 WEST OR ABOUT 740 MILES... 1195 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES... OR ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM... NORTHEAST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. VINCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 21 MPH... 33 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY... AND VINCE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...34.9 N... 14.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 101441 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005 THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED AS NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS BLOWN NEARLY ALL OF THE CONVECTION OFF TO THE EAST. SOME NEW CONVECTION HAS RESUMED ON THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER... BUT VINCE IS CLEARLY ON A FAST DECLINE. THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT... MORE IN LINE WITH THE DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS THAN THE MUCH HIGHER CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES... DUE TO THE GREATLY DIMINISHED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION TO THE SHEAR... VINCE IS OVER SSTS NEAR 22C... SO IT WILL LIKELY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ROUGHLY 12 HOURS. VINCE IS MOVING QUICKLY ON A HEADING JUST NORTH OF DUE EAST... 080 DEGREES AT ABOUT 18 KT... WHICH IS A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. THE CIRCULATION CENTER WILL PROBABLY BE PULLED A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD BY THE APPROACHING FRONT UNTIL THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW DISSIPATES OR IS ABSORBED BY THE FRONT. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 34.9N 14.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 36.4N 11.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 11/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 101200 *** T T T GALE WARNING 03 AT 1200 10 OCTOBER, TROPICAL STORM (KIROGI)(0520) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO TWO POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT FIVE EST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FORECAST POSITION AT 111200 TWO ONEPOINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT THREE EAST AT 121200 TWO ONE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT TWO EAST AND AT 131200 TWO TWO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THEE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 101200 *** TTT WARNING 03 AT 1200 10 OCTOBER TROPICAL STORM (KIROGI) (0520) WAS ESTMTD BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 22.2N 133.5E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 02MPS ROUGH ROUGH TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FROM CNTER ESTMTD CNTRL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 18MPS NEAR CNTER 13MPS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FORECAST POSITIONS AT 111200 21.7N 131.3E AT 121200 32.8N 129.2E AT 131200 22.3N 12710E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP31 RJTD 101500 *** WARNING 101500. WARNING VALID 111500. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0520 KIROGI (0520) 1000 HPA AT 22.3N 133.2E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111500UTC AT 21.9N 132.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 101500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 101500UTC 22.3N 133.2E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 111500UTC 21.9N 132.8E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 121200UTC 22.4N 132.4E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 131200UTC 23.1N 131.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 101736 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.10.2005 TROPICAL STORM VINCE ANALYSED POSITION : 35.2N 15.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL232005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.10.2005 35.2N 15.8W WEAK 00UTC 11.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 17.9N 65.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.10.2005 17.9N 65.8W WEAK 00UTC 11.10.2005 19.8N 65.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2005 22.0N 66.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2005 23.9N 66.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.10.2005 26.2N 65.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2005 28.6N 64.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2005 33.6N 61.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.10.2005 34.5N 62.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.10.2005 35.7N 65.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.10.2005 37.3N 63.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2005 38.6N 61.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 101736