** WTIN20 DEMS 100604 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 10-10-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL, AND ADJOINING ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 19.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ---------- ** WTJP21 RJTD 100600 *** WARNING 100600. WARNING VALID 110600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0520 KIROGI (0520) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 22.6N 133.9E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 22.3N 133.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 22.5N 132.9E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 22.9N 132.6E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0520 KIROGI (0520) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 100600UTC 22.6N 133.9E FAIR MOVE W 07KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 110600UTC 22.3N 133.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 120600UTC 22.5N 132.9E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 130600UTC 22.9N 132.6E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KIROGI 0520 (0520) INITIAL TIME 100600 UTC 00HR 22.6N 134.0E 1000HPA 18M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR W 5KM/H P+24HR 22.2N 133.2E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 22.5N 132.8E 985HPA 28M/S P+72HR 23.0N 132.4E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 100600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0520 KIROGI ANALYSIS POSITION 100600UTC 22.5N 133.9E MOVEMENT W 7KT PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 110600UTC 22.3N 132.7E WITHIN 55NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 48HR POSITION 120600UTC 22.6N 131.8E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 72HR POSITION 130600UTC 23.4N 131.0E WITHIN 160NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 64KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 100600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 0520 KIROGI (0520) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 100600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL DECELERATE THEN BE STATIONARY. TS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN BE STATIONARY. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 100900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/092321ZOCT2005// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 22.5N 133.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 133.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 21.9N 132.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 21.7N 132.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 22.0N 131.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 22.9N 130.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 25.1N 131.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 133.6E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 21W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 092321ZOCT2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 092330). NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.// ** WTNT23 KNHC 100828 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM VINCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232005 0900Z MON OCT 10 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 16.6W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 16.6W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 17.2W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 36.4N 14.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 16.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 100828 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005 VINCE HAS BECOME RAPIDLY LESS ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...AS A BLAST OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS OVERTAKEN THE CYCLONE. CONVECTION IS BEING DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND THE EYE HAS DISINTEGRATED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WITH VINCE OVER 23C WATERS AND THE SHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...A CONTINUED RAPID DECLINE IS EXPECTED. THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ALL SHOW VINCE BECOMING ABSORBED OR DISSIPATING WITHIN 24 HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT VINCE COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BEFORE THEN. VINCE HAS ACCELERATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 070/10. AS THE CONVECTION AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE...A SLIGHT TURN BACK TO THE LEFT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER DISSIPATES. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND GFDN SOLUTIONS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 34.8N 16.6W 50 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 36.4N 14.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 100828 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM VINCE ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005 ..VINCE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VINCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 16.6 WEST OR ABOUT 620 MILES... 995 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES...OR ABOUT 145 MILES... 235 KM... NORTH OF THE MADIERA ISLANDS. VINCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR. SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND VINCE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES ...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...34.8 N... 16.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 100600 *** T T T GALE WARNING 02 AT 0600 10 OCTOBER , TROPICAL STORM (KIROGI) {0520} UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO TWO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT NINE EAST MOVING WEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FORECAST POSITIONS AT 110600 TWO TWO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT SIX EAST AT 120600 TWO TWO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT EIGHT EAST AT 130600 TWO THREE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA = ** WTPH RPLL 100600 *** TTT WARNING 02 AT 0600 10 OCTOBER TROPICAL STORM (KIROGI) (0520) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTMTD BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 22.5N 133.9E MOVING WEST AT 02MPS ROUGH TOVERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FROM CNTER ESTMTD CNTRL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 18MPD NEAR CNTER 13MPS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FORECAST POSITIONS AT 110600 22.7N 131.6E AT 120600 22.8N 130.8E AT 130600 23.0N 130.0E ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP31 RJTD 100900 *** WARNING 100900. WARNING VALID 110900. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0520 KIROGI (0520) 1000 HPA AT 22.2N 133.5E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING SOUTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110900UTC AT 21.7N 133.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0520 KIROGI (0520) ANALYSIS PSTN 100900UTC 22.2N 133.5E FAIR MOVE SW SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 110900UTC 21.7N 133.0E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 120600UTC 22.5N 132.9E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 130600UTC 22.9N 132.6E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT =