** WTSR20 WSSS 091800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPN21 PGTW 092330 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 092321ZOCT2005// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/092321ZOCT2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.8N 135.3E TO 24.3N 132.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 092130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 134.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 135.0E HAS BEEN RELOCATED NEAR 22.9N 134.9E BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES. THE DISTURBANCE IS NOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTI- SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES CONVERGING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 092053Z AMSU-B IMAGE AND A 092123Z SSM/I IMAGE REVEAL THAT THE LLCC HAS BECOME SUPERPOSED WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER, AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE RECENT ALIGNMENT OF THE LLCC AND CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 102330Z.// ** WTPN21 PGTW 092330 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 092321ZOCT2005// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/092321ZOCT2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.8N 135.3E TO 24.3N 132.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 092130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 134.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 135.0E HAS BEEN RELOCATED NEAR 22.9N 134.9E BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES. THE DISTURBANCE IS NOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTI- SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES CONVERGING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 092053Z AMSU-B IMAGE AND A 092123Z SSM/I IMAGE REVEAL THAT THE LLCC HAS BECOME SUPERPOSED WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER, AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE RECENT ALIGNMENT OF THE LLCC AND CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 102330Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 100000UTC 22.9N 134.5E FAIR MOVE W 10KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 110000UTC 23.1N 133.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 100000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 22.9N 134.5E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 100000 UTC IS FAIR. TD WILL DECELERATE . TD WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTNT23 KNHC 100222 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE VINCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232005 0300Z MON OCT 10 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 17.8W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 17.8W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 18.3W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 35.8N 15.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 38.0N 12.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 40.0N 8.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 17.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 100222 *** SPFAT3 HURRICANE VINCE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF VINCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 17.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT WED OCT 12 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 38.0N 12.0W 26 X X X 26 40.0N 8.0W 6 10 X X 16 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE C FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE D FROM 8PM TUE TO 8PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 100223 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE VINCE ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005 ...VINCE PASSING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS... ...THREAT TO SHIPPING... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VINCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 17.8 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND ABOUT 565 MILES... 910 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES. VINCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...34.5 N... 17.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 100225 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005 THE EYE OF VINCE IS BECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED...AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE HAS DECREASED. MOREOVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING INDICATIVE OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AS THE DENSE OVERCAST HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT ERODED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ALL OF THIS IS SUGGESTING THAT A WEAKENING TREND IS IMMINENT...IF IT IS NOT ALREADY UNDERWAY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 65 KT...ALTHOUGH AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NEVER QUITE SUPPORTED HURRICANE STRENGTH. IN 24-36 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 35 KT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW 20 DEG C. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING...WITH VINCE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS IT NEARS THE IBERIAN PENINSULA. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A COLD FRONT BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. INITIAL MOTION...055/6...IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS HEADING. A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE...AND CAUSE VINCE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO NOGAPS AND THE NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE GFS AND GFDL ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT OF THE NEW NHC TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 34.5N 17.8W 65 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 35.8N 15.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 38.0N 12.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 40.0N 8.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 12/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 100000 *** T T T WARNING 01 AT 0000 10 OCTOBER, TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO TWO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT SIX EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FIVE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FORECAST POSITION AT 110000 TWO THREE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT FOUR EAST AT 120000 TWO THREE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT FOUR EAST AT 130000 TWO FOUR POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 100300UTC 22.9N 133.9E FAIR MOVE W 10KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 110300UTC 23.1N 132.6E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPH RPLL 100000 *** TTT WARNING 01 AT 0000 10 OCTOBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 22.8N 134.6E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT 02MPS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 55MPS NEAR CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FORECAST POSITIONS AT 110000 23.0N 132.4E AT 120000 23.5N 130.4E AT 130000 24.0N 128.3E ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT80 EGRR 100542 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.10.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-T ANALYSED POSITION : 29.6N 66.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL222005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.10.2005 29.6N 66.0W WEAK 12UTC 10.10.2005 30.7N 68.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE VINCE ANALYSED POSITION : 34.3N 18.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL232005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.10.2005 34.3N 18.4W MODERATE 12UTC 10.10.2005 35.2N 16.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 11.10.2005 37.0N 12.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 18.9N 66.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.10.2005 18.9N 66.6W WEAK 00UTC 11.10.2005 21.0N 68.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2005 22.7N 68.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2005 24.4N 67.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2005 26.9N 66.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2005 29.3N 65.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 100542