** WTPQ20 RJTD 091800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 091800UTC 22.7N 135.9E POOR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1008HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 101800UTC 22.6N 133.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTNT23 KNHC 092041 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE VINCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232005 2100Z SUN OCT 09 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 18.6W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 18.6W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 18.9W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 35.4N 17.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 37.6N 14.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 40.5N 11.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 15SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 18.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 092048 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE VINCE ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005 ...VINCE BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE PASSING NORTHWEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS... ...MAINLY A HAZARD FOR MARINE INTERESTS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE VINCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 18.6 WEST OR ABOUT 535 MILES... 865 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 125 MILES... 200 KM... NORTHWEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. VINCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT... BUT VINCE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES... 130 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...34.2 N... 18.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 092048 *** SPFAT3 HURRICANE VINCE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF VINCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 18.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT WED OCT 12 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 37.6N 14.5W 26 1 X X 27 40.5N 11.0W 2 14 X X 16 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE C FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE D FROM 2PM TUE TO 2PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 092055 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005 IF IT LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE... IT PROBABLY IS... DESPITE ITS ENVIRONMENT AND UNUSUAL LOCATION. MOST AVAILABLE DATA SUGGESTS VINCE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING TODAY. IN FACT... THE CIRA INTENSITY ESTIMATE BASED ON THE EARLIER AMSU OVERPASS NEAR 07Z WAS 50 KT AND 995 MB... SO VINCE WAS PROBABLY EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER THIS MORNING THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MORE RECENTLY... METSAT-8 IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE EARLIER RAGGED EYE FEATURE WITH ABOUT 20 N MI DIAMETER HAS CONTRACTED TO 15 N MI AS A BONA FIDE EYE. SOME ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT IS NOW DISCERNIBLE AROUND THE DEEP CONVECTION... ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE TOPS REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN IN MOST HURRICANES. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBERS RANGE FROM 3.5 TO 4.5... WITH THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE BASED ON AN EYE PATTERN. THESE ESTIMATES PROVIDE THE BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 65 KT. IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE SURFACE WINDS ARE AS STRONG AS THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST... ESPECIALLY SINCE THE CONVECTION MIGHT LACK SOME VIGOR OVER THE 23-24C SSTS... BUT WE HAVE NO DATA TO CONFIRM OR DENY THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. VINCE IS STILL MOVING NORTHEASTWARD BUT NOT VERY FAST... ABOUT 045/5... SO IT COULD MAINTAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR SEVERAL HOURS WHILE ITS OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT CHANGES LITTLE. VINCE IS THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS AND NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR RAMPS UP. A COLD FRONT IS SEVERAL HUNDRED N MI NORTHWEST OF VINCE... AND AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD MARCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC... IT SHOULD PULL VINCE NORTHEASTWARD AT A GRADUALLY INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND SUGGEST THAT VINCE WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... BUT IT COULD TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE SMALL CIRCULATION OF VINCE TO COMPLETELY LOSE ITS INDENTITY. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 34.2N 18.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 35.4N 17.1W 65 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 37.6N 14.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 40.5N 11.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 11/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 092100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 092100UTC 22.7N 135.2E POOR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1008HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 102100UTC 22.6N 133.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT =