** WTSR20 WSSS 090600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT23 KNHC 091445 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM VINCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232005 1500Z SUN OCT 09 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 19.2W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 19.2W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 19.3W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 34.7N 18.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 36.3N 16.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 39.1N 13.6W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 19.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 091446 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM VINCE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005 ...20TH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN AN UNUSUAL LOCATION... IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES AND CLOSE TO THE MADEIRA ISLANDS... SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE PREVIOUSLY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE CANARY ISLANDS HAS ACQUIRED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VINCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 19.2 WEST OR ABOUT 515 MILES... 830 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 140 MILES... 225 KM... NORTHWEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. VINCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...34.0 N... 19.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 091447 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM VINCE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF VINCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 19.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT WED OCT 12 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 36.3N 16.1W 30 X X X 30 39.1N 13.6W 4 13 X X 17 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON C FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE D FROM 8AM TUE TO 8AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 091500 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005 THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF NON-TROPICAL ORIGIN THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... IN BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE CANARY ISLANDS... HAS BEEN ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM IS NOW A TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM IS SOMEWHAT OF A SUBJECTIVE DETERMINATION. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SITUATED OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 23-24 CELSIUS AND IS BENEATH A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... IT NOW HAS SEVERAL CHARACTERISTICS THAT WARRANT CLASSIFICATION AS TROPICAL STORM VINCE. THE CYCLONE IS ISOLATED AND IS QUITE SYMMETRIC WITH A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS... PERHAPS 20-25 N MI... AND WHILE IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE... THE INNER CORE OF CONVECTION ONLY HAS A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 100 N MI. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOT APPARENT ON SATELLITE ANIMATIONS... BUT A 07Z AMSU OVERPASS REVEALS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WARM CORE. CYCLONE PHASE SPACE ANALYSES FROM FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY INDICATE THIS SYSTEM IS SYMMETRIC AND NOT VERY FAR ON THE COLD CORE SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS SUPPORTED BY A 0640Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AND BY SUBTROPICAL SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB OF 3.0 BASED ON THE HEBERT-POTEAT TECHNIQUE. SINCE SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST DAY OR SO... VINCE COULD EASILY BE DEEMED TO HAVE BECOME A SUBTROPICAL STORM YESTERDAY. VINCE HAS BEEN CUT OFF FROM THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS... BUT NOW SEEMS TO BE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ALONG THIS SAME HEADING IS EXPECTED UNTIL VINCE MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 34.0N 19.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 34.7N 18.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 36.3N 16.1W 45 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 39.1N 13.6W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 11/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 091715 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.10.2005 TROPICAL STORM VINCE ANALYSED POSITION : 33.7N 19.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL232005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.10.2005 33.7N 19.6W WEAK 00UTC 10.10.2005 35.4N 17.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.10.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 18.0N 67.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.10.2005 18.0N 67.9W WEAK 00UTC 11.10.2005 20.6N 67.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.10.2005 21.6N 69.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2005 23.3N 69.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2005 25.2N 68.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.10.2005 27.1N 68.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2005 29.2N 66.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2005 31.2N 65.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 14.10.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 091715