** WTNT32 KNHC 082359 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005 ...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT... 0000Z... THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES... 430 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH... 32 KM/HR. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR BERMUDA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB... 29.80 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION... 29.2 N... 62.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD... WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB/LAUER $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 082359 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005 ...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT... 0000Z... THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES... 430 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH... 32 KM/HR. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR BERMUDA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB... 29.80 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION... 29.2 N... 62.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD... WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB/LAUER $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 082359 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005 ...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT... 0000Z... THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES... 430 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH... 32 KM/HR. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR BERMUDA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB... 29.80 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION... 29.2 N... 62.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD... WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB/LAUER $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 082359 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005 ...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT... 0000Z... THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES... 430 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH... 32 KM/HR. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR BERMUDA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB... 29.80 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION... 29.2 N... 62.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD... WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB/LAUER $$ ** WTSR20 WSSS 081800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT22 KNHC 090239 *** TCMAT2 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222005 0300Z SUN OCT 09 2005 AT 11 PM EST...0300Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 62.6W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 62.6W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 62.1W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.8N 65.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.6N 67.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 31.3N 69.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.8N 71.3W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 32.5N 73.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 62.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 090240 *** SPFAT2 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT TUE OCT 11 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 30.6N 67.4W 65 X X X 65 SAVANNAH GA X X X 4 4 31.3N 69.5W 27 10 X X 37 CHARLESTON SC X X X 5 5 31.8N 71.3W 1 22 1 1 25 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 6 6 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 2 2 WILMINGTON NC X X 1 6 7 BERMUDA 3 2 X 2 7 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 1 7 8 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 2 2 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X 2 6 8 FT PIERCE FL X X X 3 3 NORFOLK VA X X X 4 4 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 3 3 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 2 2 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 3 3 TAMPA FL X X X 2 2 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 3 3 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON C FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON D FROM 8PM MON TO 8PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 090248 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005 ...DEPRESSION DISSIPATING SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS DISSIPATING SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. AT 11 PM EST...0300Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF DISSIPATING SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES... 405 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE DISSIPATING DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR. THE REMNANT LOW CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A DECREASING FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...29.2 N... 62.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 090300 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NO LONGER PRODUCING ANY DEEP CONVECTION... AND WHAT CONVECTION THERE HAD BEEN EARLIER THIS EVENING WAS NOT AT ALL ORGANIZED ABOUT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER... WHICH IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED. THEREFORE... THE SYSTEM NO LONGER HAS THE CHARACTERISTICS OF EITHER A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE DEMISE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN BROUGHT ON BY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTH. THIS SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO ABATE ANY TIME SOON... SO REGENERATION APPEARS UNLIKELY... BUT THE REMANT LOW WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE SEEMINGLY REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPING NEW CONVECTION. THE TRACK FORECAST ASSUMES THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW AND ANTICIPATES A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION... IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC... FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS UNTIL THE LOW DISSIPATES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0300Z 29.2N 62.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 09/1200Z 29.8N 65.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 10/0000Z 30.6N 67.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 10/1200Z 31.3N 69.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 11/0000Z 31.8N 71.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 12/0000Z 32.5N 73.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 090303 *** TCDAT2 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005 ...CORRECTED FOR SUBTROPICAL NOT TROPICAL...AND LAST ADVISORY... SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NO LONGER PRODUCING ANY DEEP CONVECTION... AND WHAT CONVECTION THERE HAD BEEN EARLIER THIS EVENING WAS NOT AT ALL ORGANIZED ABOUT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER... WHICH IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED. THEREFORE... THE SYSTEM NO LONGER HAS THE CHARACTERISTICS OF EITHER A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE... AND SO THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE DEMISE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN BROUGHT ON BY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTH. THIS SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO ABATE ANY TIME SOON... SO REGENERATION APPEARS UNLIKELY... BUT THE REMANT LOW WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE SEEMINGLY REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPING NEW CONVECTION. THE TRACK FORECAST ASSUMES THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW AND ANTICIPATES A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION... IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC... FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS UNTIL THE LOW DISSIPATES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0300Z 29.2N 62.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 09/1200Z 29.8N 65.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 10/0000Z 30.6N 67.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 10/1200Z 31.3N 69.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 11/0000Z 31.8N 71.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 12/0000Z 32.5N 73.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 090537 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 09.10.2005 00UTC 10.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-T ANALYSED POSITION : 28.9N 62.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL222005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 09.10.2005 28.9N 62.1W WEAK 12UTC 09.10.2005 28.7N 65.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 090537