** WTNT22 KNHC 082035 *** TCMAT2 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222005 2100Z SAT OCT 08 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA TONIGHT. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 60.8W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 60.8W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 60.1W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 30.1N 62.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 31.1N 65.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.9N 67.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.0N 69.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 34.5N 72.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 36.0N 72.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 37.5N 72.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 60.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 082036 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005 ...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.8 WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES... 520 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR BERMUDA ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...29.1 N... 60.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 082037 *** SPFAT2 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT TUE OCT 11 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.1N 65.5W 57 X X X 57 WILMINGTON NC X X 1 7 8 31.9N 67.9W 9 25 X 1 35 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 1 8 9 33.0N 69.8W X 18 4 1 23 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X 2 8 10 BERMUDA 37 1 X X 38 NORFOLK VA X X X 7 7 SAVANNAH GA X X X 3 3 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 5 5 CHARLESTON SC X X X 4 4 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 3 3 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 6 6 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 082053 *** TCDAT2 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005 CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY...WITH THE OUTER BAND SEEN EARLIER DISSIPATING AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMING FULLY EXPOSED FOR A TIME. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...A NEW BURST HAS FORMED JUST WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE SUBTROPICAL 35-40 KT FROM SAB...SUBTROPICAL 25-30 KT FROM TAFB...AND TROPICAL 25 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES AND THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION BEING SIMILAR TO THAT OF 6 HR AGO. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/17. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. BEFORE 36 HR...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME DECELERATION BETWEEN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A LARGE MID/ UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH. AFTER 36-48 HR...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES LOW CONFIDENCE AS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD APPEARS IN THE GUIDANCE. IF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE RIGHT...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL FORM SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION...WHICH COULD STEER THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE NEW LOW IS SLOWER TO FORM OR TROUGHING CONTINUES ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AS SUGGESTED BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH. THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER 48 HR CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN AT A DECREASING FORWARD SPEED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE U. S. MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH ABOUT 15 KT OF SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO PULSES OF SHEAR DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS...AND THEN UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT SHEAR AFTER THREE DAYS. THE GFDL AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL LOSE THE SYSTEM IN 36-72 HR. ALL OF THIS...COMBINED WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26C-27C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SUGGEST THE CYCLONE COULD STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING A LITTLE ABOVE THAT OF THE SHIPS MODEL... WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KT IN 48 KT. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A FASTER WEAKENING AFTER 72 HR THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. IF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE CORRECT ON THE FORMATION OF THE SECOND LOW...OR IF THE SHIPS MODEL IS RIGHT ABOUT THE SHEAR... THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN EVEN FASTER. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE SYSTEM COULD FULLY TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/2100Z 29.1N 60.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 09/0600Z 30.1N 62.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 09/1800Z 31.1N 65.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 10/0600Z 31.9N 67.9W 45 KT 48HR VT 10/1800Z 33.0N 69.8W 50 KT 72HR VT 11/1800Z 34.5N 72.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 12/1800Z 36.0N 72.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 13/1800Z 37.5N 72.5W 30 KT $$