** WTSR20 WSSS 080600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT32 KNHC 081434 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005 ...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.0 WEST OR ABOUT 450 MILES... 725 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. A SHIP NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1009.5 MB...29.81 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...28.1 N... 59.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 081434 *** TCMAT2 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222005 1500Z SAT OCT 08 2005 AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 59.0W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 59.0W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 58.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.2N 60.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 30.4N 63.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 31.2N 66.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 32.3N 68.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 34.0N 71.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 36.0N 72.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 37.0N 72.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 59.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 081435 *** SPFAT2 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 30.4N 63.4W 34 X X X 34 WILMINGTON NC X X X 7 7 31.2N 66.4W 4 21 1 X 26 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 9 9 32.3N 68.3W X 15 5 2 22 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X 1 9 10 BERMUDA 3 16 1 1 21 NORFOLK VA X X X 7 7 SAVANNAH GA X X X 2 2 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 6 6 CHARLESTON SC X X X 3 3 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 4 4 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 5 5 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN C FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON D FROM 8AM MON TO 8AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 081443 *** TCDAT2 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSIRE AREA SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CALLED A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUBTROPICAL INSTEAD OF TROPICAL DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH A LARGE-MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF A CENTRAL CONVECTIVE FEATURE... WITH AN ELONGATED OUTER BAND IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25-30 KT FROM TAFB AND 35-40 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS A BLEND OF THESE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 320/13...UNCERTAIN BECAUSE WHILE THE OVERNIGHT MOTION WAS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THE LAST FEW IMAGES SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD THE LEFT. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH. AFTER 48 HR OR SO...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES LOW CONFIDENCE AS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD APPEARS IN THE GUIDANCE. IF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE RIGHT...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL FORM TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION...WHICH COULD STEER THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE NEW LOW IS SLOWER TO FORM OR TROUGHING CONTINUES ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AS SUGGESTED BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH. THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER 48 HR WILL CALL FOR A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN AT A DECREASING FORWARD SPEED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH ABOUT 10 KT OF SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO SOME PULSES OF SHEAR DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS...AND THEN UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT SHEAR AFTER THREE DAYS. THE GFDL AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL LOSE THE SYSTEM IN 36-72 HR. ALL OF THIS...COMBINED WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26C-27C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SUGGEST THE CYCLONE COULD STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KT IN 48 KT. IF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE CORRECT ON THE FORMATION OF THE SECOND LOW...OR IF THE SHIPS MODEL IS CORRECT ABOUT THE SHEAR...THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR. THERE IS A CHANCE THE CYCLONE COULD FULLY TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/1500Z 28.1N 59.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 09/0000Z 29.2N 60.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 09/1200Z 30.4N 63.4W 40 KT 36HR VT 10/0000Z 31.2N 66.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 10/1200Z 32.3N 68.3W 50 KT 72HR VT 11/1200Z 34.0N 71.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 12/1200Z 36.0N 72.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 13/1200Z 37.0N 72.0W 40 KT $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 081444 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005 ...CORRECTED TROPICAL TO SUBTROPICAL IN FOURTH PARAGRAPH... ...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.0 WEST OR ABOUT 450 MILES... 725 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. A SHIP NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1009.5 MB...29.81 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...28.1 N... 59.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 081737 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005 ...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.9 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES... 620 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...28.6 N... 59.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 081748 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 08.10.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 21.2N 106.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.10.2005 21.2N 106.9W WEAK 00UTC 09.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 11.7N 140.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 09.10.2005 11.7N 140.8W WEAK 12UTC 09.10.2005 12.0N 140.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2005 12.9N 138.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 081748