** WTSR20 WSSS 061800 ***
NO STORM WARNING=




** WTPN21 PHNC 070300 ***
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 070251ZOCT2005//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061721ZOCT2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.1N 104.7W TO 20.2N 108.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 070000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.4N 105.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 104.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.2W, APPROX-
IMATELY 56 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION NEARLY 100 NM
NORTH
OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS
AS THE CONVECTION HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE LLCC. HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH
MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
080300Z.//




** WTNT80 EGRR 070538 ***


 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC      



 AND ATLANTIC                                        



            GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.10.2005



 

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 22.0N 105.5W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 07.10.2005  22.0N 105.5W     WEAK

 12UTC 07.10.2005  24.0N 108.0W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 08.10.2005        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

                                                                   



 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT





 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 070538