** WTPN21 PGTW 061400 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 061351ZOCT2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.2N 110.9E TO 16.7N 107.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 110.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 17.1N 110.6E HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST THAT COULD AID IN OUTFLOW. THE AREA IS UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. DUE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASED CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 071351Z.// 4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MANOP HEADER TO BE 061400. ** WTPN21 PGTW 061400 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 061351ZOCT2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.2N 110.9E TO 16.7N 107.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 110.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 17.1N 110.6E HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST THAT COULD AID IN OUTFLOW. THE AREA IS UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. DUE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASED CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 071351Z.// 4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MANOP HEADER TO BE 061400. ** WTNT31 KWNH 062057 *** TCPAT1 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 7 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TAMMY NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 5 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2005 ...THE REMNANTS OF TAMMY MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO... ALL FLOOD WATCHES ALONG THE PATH OF TAMMY HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 5 PM EDT...21Z...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 75 MILES WEST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. THE REMNANTS OF TAMMY HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND ARE NOW MOVING TO THE SOUTH AT ABOUT 20 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 29.65 INCHES OR 1004 MB. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 8AM EDT LOCATION STORM TOTAL ======== =========== ...GEORGIA... STERLING 7.40 DARIEN 7.15 JESUP 6.36 BRUNSWICK/MALCOLM 6.18 HUNTER 5.98 SAVANNAH 5.57 EDEN 5.54 PORT WENTWORTH 5.29 KITE 5.11 WOODBINE 5.02 ...FLORIDA... MAYPORT 3.47 SAINT AUGUSTINE 3.33 FERNANDINA BEACH 3.31 DAYTONA BEACH 2.12 JACKSONVILLE 1.98 SANFORD/ORLANDO 1.94 ...SOUTH CAROLINA... HARDEEVILLE 4.96 JAMESTOWN 4.58 BEAUFORT 2.50 ...NORTH CAROLINA... CURRIE 2.50 SHALLOTTE 2.31 ELIZABETHTOWN 2.27 ...ALABAMA... AUBURN 1.54 SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF TAMMY. HEAVIER RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES... BUT THESE RAINS ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH TAMMY... BUT ARE THE RESULT OF DEEP MOISTURE COMING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...30.2 NORTH...85.6 WEST... MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH AT 20 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 15 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 29.65 INCHES OR 1004 MB. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF TAMMY ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. TRIMARCO/TERRY $$