** WTSR20 WSSS 051800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA41 TJSJ 060004 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL TAMMY ADVERTENCIA ESPECIAL NUMERO 3A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT MIERCOLES 5 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...EL CENTRO DE TAMMY MOVIENDOSE TIERRA ADENTRO...FUERTES VIENTOS AUN FUERA DE LA COSTA... A LAS 8 PM EDT...0000Z...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL SUR DE FERNANDINA BEACH HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE FERNANDINA BEACH HACIA EL NORTE HASTA EL SUR DE SANTEE RIVER EN CAROLINA DEL SUR. FAVOR DE CONSULTAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR LAS OFICINAS DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA LOCALES SOBRE POSIBLES AVISOS DE GALERNAS A LAS AFUERAS DEL AREA DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. EL RADAR DOPPLER Y LAS OBSERVACIONES DE SUPERFICIE INDICAN QUE EL CENTRO DE TAMMY SE MOVIO TIERRA ADENTRO CERCA DE MAYPORT FLORIDA DURANTE LA PASADA HOR. A LAS 6 PM EDT...0000Z...SE ESTIMABA QUE EL CENTRO ESTABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 30.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.6 OESTE...MUY CERCA DE JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. TAMMY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN SU TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE TAMMY DEBE CONTINUAR MOVIENDOSE MAS HACIA TIERRA SOBRE EL EXTREMO Y EL SURESTE DE GEORGIA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ESTOS VIENTOS ESTAN LIMITADOS A UN AREA AL NORTE Y NORESTE DEL CENTRO Y MAYORMENTE SOBRE EL MAR. ESTA NOCHE DEBERA COMENZAR UN DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 260 MILLAS...AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMA EN 1002 MILIBARAS...29.59 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE TAMMY PRODUZCA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SOBRE PARTES DEL SURESTE DE GEORGIA...EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL SUR...Y EL SURESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE....CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 8 A 10 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS ESTA TARDE Y ESTA NOCHE SOBRE EL NORESTE DE LA FLORIDA...EL SURESTE DEL GEORGIA...Y EL SUR ESTE DE CAROLINA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 9 PM EDT...30.5 NORTE... 81.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1001 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTUS82 KCHS 060110 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-370-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141- SCZ040-042>045-047>051-060430- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM TAMMY LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 910 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2005 ..TROPICAL STORM TAMMY PUSHES INLAND ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA.. ..TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GEORGIA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST OR VERY NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH. TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...TAMMY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA THIS EVENING. ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS OR BRING THEM INSIDE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... CURRENT ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE RUNNING 1.5 TO 3 FEET ABOVE EXPECTED VALUES AND THESE DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. IF HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS EVENING OR LATE THURSDAY MORNING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY STORM SURGE WILL BE MINIMAL. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN BANDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST. WIND GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY BREAK SMALL LIMBS OR KNOCK DOWN WEAK OR DAMAGED TREES WHICH COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA HAVE BEEN IN THE 2 TO 6 INCH RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA AND THE FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTH CAROLINA. FURTHER INLAND RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM LESS THAN AN INCH UP TO 2 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE AREAS MOST PRONE TO FLOODING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE BETWEEN BEAUFORT AND DARIEN ALONG THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF COASTAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD NOT TRAVEL THIS EVENING...BUT IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...DO NOT PUT YOUR LIFE IN DANGER BY CROSSING ROADS THAT ARE COVERED BY WATER. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... WITH TAMMY EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... WIND AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MODERATE TO SEVERE BEACH EROSION THROUGH THURSDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON BY 1230 PM OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TAMMY CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ JRJ ** WTNT31 KNHC 060231 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM TAMMY ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2005 ...TAMMY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED EARLY THURSDAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES CONCERNING POSSIBLE GALE WARNINGS OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...NORTHWEST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO AN AREA TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND MAINLY OVER WATER. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. TAMMY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA... SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...30.8 N... 82.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 060231 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212005 0300Z THU OCT 06 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED EARLY THURSDAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES CONCERNING POSSIBLE GALE WARNINGS OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 82.1W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......175NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 100SE 0SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 82.1W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 81.6W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 32.0N 83.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 33.0N 85.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 82.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 060231 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2005 RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TAMMY MOVED INLAND NEAR MAYPORT FLORIDA ABOUT 23Z AND SINCE THEN...THE CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER MAINLY OVER WATER. TAMMY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CYCLONE SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 30.8N 82.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 32.0N 83.5W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 07/0000Z 33.0N 85.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 060231 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 33.0N 85.0W 45 X X X 45 SAVANNAH GA 94 X X X 94 DAYTONA BEACH FL 40 X X X 40 CEDAR KEY FL 8 X X X 8 JACKSONVILLE FL 99 X X X 99 ST MARKS FL 12 X X X 12 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI C FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI D FROM 8PM FRI TO 8PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 060234 *** TCVAT1 TAMMY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2005 .TROPICAL STORM TAMMY GAC029-039-051-127-179-191-SCC013-015-019-029-035-053-AMZ330- 350-352-354-374-450-470-060900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1021.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2005 FERNANDINA-BEACH-FL 30.66N 81.44W SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX... ** WTCA41 TJSJ 060252 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL TAMMY ADVERTENCIA ESPECIAL NUMERO 4 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MIERCOLES 5 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...TAMMY SE DEBILITA A MEDIDA QUE SE ADENTRA EN TIERRA... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA HACIA EL NORTE HASTA EL SUR DE SANTEE RIVER CAROLINA DEL SUR. EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PROBABLEMENTE SEA DESCONTINUADO TEMPRANO EL JUEVES. FAVOR DE CONSULTAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR LAS OFICINAS DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA LOCALES SOBRE POSIBLES AVISOS DE GALERNAS A LAS AFUERAS DEL AREA DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL POBREMENTE DEFINIDO CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL TAMMY SE ESTIMO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 30.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 82.1 OESTE O COMO A 40 MILLAS...AL NOROESTE DE JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. TAMMY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ESTOS VIENTOS ESTAN LIMITADOS A UN AREA AL NORTE Y NORESTE DEL CENTRO Y MAYORMENTE SOBRE EL MAR. SE PRONOSTICA DEBILITAMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 200 MILLAS...AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMA EN 1002 MILIBARAS...29.59 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE TAMMY PRODUZCA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SOBRE PARTES DEL SURESTE DE GEORGIA...EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL SUR...Y EL SURESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE....CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 8 A 10 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS ESTA TARDE Y ESTA NOCHE SOBRE EL NORESTE DE LA FLORIDA...EL SURESTE DEL GEORGIA...Y EL SUR ESTE DE CAROLINA HASTA EL JUEVES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...30.8 NORTE... 82.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1002 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTUS82 KJAX 060318 AAB *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-GAZ153-154-165-166-060900- TROPICAL STORM TAMMY LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1104 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2005 UPDATED TO REMOVE FLOOD WATCH ...TAMMY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL...ST JOHNS...AND FLAGLER COUNTIES AND CAMDEN AND GLYNN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO AN AREA TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND MAINLY OVER WATER. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAMMY REMAINS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AND WHILE THE CENTER OF THE STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA...YOU SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE CENTER POSITION AS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME IN RAINBANDS. RESIDENTS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD CONTINUE THEIR PREPARATIONS FOR PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND TWO TO TWO AND A HALF FEET ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO PERSISTENT STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS. TIDES WILL CONTINUE AT THE SAME LEVELS OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING TIDE ON THURSDAY. MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND ALSO THE TIDAL RIVERS NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. WATER LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. INTERESTS ALONG THE CANALS SHOULD KEEP VULNERABLE PROPERTY SECURED AND MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP CLOSE WATCH ON THE SECURITY OF YOUR BOATS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH ROUGH SEAS OF UP TO 15 FEET. LOCAL INLETS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS. MARINERS NAVIGATING THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY AT ST ANDREWS SOUND ARE ADVISED THAT LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE LIKELY NEAR THE CHANNEL. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... MUCH OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING WELL OFFSHORE. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED...BUT MANY SECONDARY ROADS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL REMAIN FLOODED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS HAVE BEEN RUNNING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER BANDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES AS WELL AS OVER NASSAU SOUND...CUMBERLAND SOUND... ST ANDREWS SOUND AND SAINT SIMONS SOUND OVERNIGHT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AS BANDS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH TAMMY AFFECT THE AREA...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTAL COUNTIES. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TAMMY FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 5 AM...OR EARLIER SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ SANDRIK/HESS ** WTUS82 KCHS 060322 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-370-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141- SCZ040-042>045-047>051-060730- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM TAMMY LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1122 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM TAMMY IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST...OR ABOUT 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. TAMMY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS OR BRING THEM INSIDE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... CURRENT ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE RUNNING 1.5 TO 3 FEET ABOVE EXPECTED VALUES AND THESE DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SHALLOW TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WATER UP TO A HALF FOOT IS LIKELY COVERING PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 80...BETWEEN TYBEE ISLAND AND WILMINGTON ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN BANDS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST. AREAS MOST PRONE TO SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...WHERE DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA HAVE BEEN IN THE 2 TO 6 INCH RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA AND THE FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTH CAROLINA. FURTHER INLAND RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM LESS THAN AN INCH UP TO 2 INCHES. NUMEROUS RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG COASTAL AREAS FROM BEAUFORT SOUTHWARD TO DARIEN. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE AREAS MOST PRONE TO FLOODING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE BETWEEN BEAUFORT AND DARIEN ALONG THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... WIND AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MODERATE TO SEVERE BEACH EROSION THROUGH THURSDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON BY 330 AM THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TAMMY CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ JRJ ** WTNT80 EGRR 060523 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 06.10.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 11.1N 146.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.10.2005 11.1N 146.9W WEAK 12UTC 06.10.2005 11.1N 147.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2005 11.3N 148.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.10.2005 11.3N 149.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2005 11.5N 149.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2005 11.5N 149.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2005 11.1N 150.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2005 12.0N 151.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 10.10.2005 12.0N 152.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.10.2005 12.2N 154.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM TAMMY ANALYSED POSITION : 30.2N 81.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL212005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.10.2005 30.2N 81.5W MODERATE 12UTC 06.10.2005 31.2N 83.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2005 31.2N 84.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 07.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 17.8N 102.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.10.2005 17.8N 102.8W WEAK 00UTC 07.10.2005 18.2N 103.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2005 19.0N 105.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2005 19.8N 105.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2005 20.2N 106.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2005 21.0N 106.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 09.10.2005 22.0N 106.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 10.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 9.8N 39.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.10.2005 9.8N 39.9W WEAK 00UTC 07.10.2005 12.2N 42.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2005 13.9N 44.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2005 15.6N 45.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2005 17.1N 47.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 060523 ** WTNT31 KNHC 060556 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM TAMMY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2005 ...CENTER OF TAMMY CONTINUES MOVING INLAND BUT RAINBANDS STILL COMING ONSHORE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES CONCERNING POSSIBLE GALE WARNINGS OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST OR NEAR WAYCROSS GEORGIA. TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED ARE NEAR 40 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO AN AREA NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER... MAINLY OVER WATER BUT ALSO NEAR THE COASTLINE IN THE WARNING AREA. WEAKENING IS FORECAST... AND TAMMY WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. TAMMY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA... SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...31.2 N... 82.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$