** WTSR20 WSSS 050600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS82 KMLB 051212 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-047-141-147-051715- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 8 AM EDT WED OCT 5 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORMS OFF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM COCOA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH... ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM TAMMY HAS FORMED JUST OFFSHORE BREVARD COUNTY THIS MORNING. GALE WARNINGS...FLOOD WATCHES AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WERE ALREADY IN PLACE FOR BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES AND RAIN SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN IMPACTED THE AREA SINCE YESTERDAY SO THE WEATHER IMPACT FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED CONSIDERABLY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM COCOA NORTH TO FLAGLER BEACH. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM COCOA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF VOLUSIA COUNTY. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN IN BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. HAZARD WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MADE FOR THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 730 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND EXPECTED TO CLOSELY PARALLEL TO THE NORTHERN BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTY COASTLINE TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GREATEST THREAT ON LAND FROM TAMMY IS FLOODING RAINS. RESIDENTS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOOD WARNINGS. RESIDENTS OF VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES SHOULD ALSO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT BY WIND AND TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR HIGH SURF THIS MORNING AND STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL STORM TAMMY. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS WILL ROTATE ONSHORE...MAINLY IMPACTING VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES AND THE ADJACENT INTERIOR COUNTIES. THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS WILL LIMIT AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS. HOWEVER...MANY AREAS WILL RECEIVE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME AREAS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...RECEIVING 3 TO 4 INCHES BY EARLY THURSDAY. URBAN AND LOW LYING FLOODING MAY RESULT...AND A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT A PERSISTENT RAINBAND MAY SET UP AND TRAIN OVER AREAS OF VOLUSIA COUNTY LATER TODAY CAUSING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IF THIS OCCURS A FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM TAMMY OFFSHORE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN AVERAGE WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COASTLINE TODAY AND AROUND 20 MPH INLAND. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS WILL REACH 40 MPH ON THE BEACHES...MAINLY NORTH OF COCOA BEACH...AND 35 MPH ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. LATER TODAY THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTY WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ...ESPECIALLY NEAR PASSING HEAVY SHOWERS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY. THESE WINDS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ESPECIALLY ON HIGH BRIDGES OR CAUSEWAYS NEAR THE COAST. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT THE BEACHES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 930 AM AND 1030 AM THIS MORNING AND BETWEEN 930 PM AND 1030 PM TONIGHT. TIDES HAVE BEEN RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE THE DUNE LINE HAS BEEN WEAKENED OR UNDERMINED FROM PRIOR STORMS ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COAST. LARGE BREAKING SURF OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE ROUGH POUNDING SURF...NUMEROUS STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR. EVEN AT LOW TIDE...THE HIGH SURF WILL BE A DANGER TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE WATER. SETS OF LARGE BREAKERS CAN KNOCK YOU DOWN AND MAKE YOU SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT. REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. ...MARINE IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL MAKE THE COASTAL WATER EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. THE BUOY 20 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL WAS REPORTING 13 FOOT SEAS WITH EAST WINDS OF 21 KNOTS GUSTING TO 27 KNOTS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN RAINBANDS TODAY HOWEVER THE RISK OF TORNADOES IS VERY LOW WITH THESE TYPE OF SYSTEMS. A FEW WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE NEARSHORE OR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. THE GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK CAN BE VIEWED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB PAGE AT...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB AND CLICKING ON HAZARDS. $$ HAGEMEYER ** WTUS82 KCHS 051239 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-370-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141- SCZ040-042>045-047>051-051600- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM TAMMY LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 839 AM EDT WED OCT 5 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GEORGIA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA NORTH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 730 AM EDT...1130Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE TODAY. TAMMY IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 16 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD MAKE QUICK PREPARATIONS FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS OR BRING THEM INSIDE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 1 TO PERHAPS 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED VALUES TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... WITH TAMMY EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 12 NOON OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TAMMY CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ MTE ** WTUS82 KCHS 051255 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-370-374-GAZ116>119-138>141-SCZ043>045-047>051- 051600- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM TAMMY LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 855 AM EDT WED OCT 5 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GEORGIA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA NORTH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 730 AM EDT...1130Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE TODAY. TAMMY IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 16 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD MAKE QUICK PREPARATIONS FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS OR BRING THEM INSIDE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 1 TO PERHAPS 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED VALUES TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... WITH TAMMY EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 12 NOON OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TAMMY CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ ** WTUS82 KJAX 051305 RRA *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-GAZ154-166-051700- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT...RETRANSMISSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 743 AM EDT WED OCT 5 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL...ST JOHNS...AND FLAGLER COUNTIES AND CAMDEN AND GLYNN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 730 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FLAGLER BEACH AND 155 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE. TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ONLY A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL LATER TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAMMY IS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AND WHILE THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST TODAY...YOU SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE CENTER POSITION AS MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME IN BANDS MOVING INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC. RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTLINE TODAY. BOATS AND PROPERTY ALONG THE BEACHES SHOULD BE SECURED AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTLINES FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO PERSISTENT STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS. TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND ALSO THE TIDAL RIVERS INCLUDING THE ST. JOHNS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDES. WATER LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY SOUTH OF MATANZAS INLET ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH OVER THE COUPLE DAYS AND ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. INTERESTS ALONG THE CANALS SHOULD KEEP VULNERABLE PROPERTY SECURED AND MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP CLOSE WATCH ON THE SECURITY OF YOUR BOATS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH ROUGH SEAS OF UP TO 12 FEET. LOCAL INLETS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MARINERS NAVIGATING THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY AT ST ANDREWS SOUND ARE ADVISED THAT LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE LIKELY NEAR THE CHANNEL. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE COMMON WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 8 TO 10 INCHES. COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINFALL... PONDING OF WATER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND THE ST. JOHNS RIVER. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS BANDS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH TAMMY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TAMMY FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON TODAY. $$ LETRO ** WTNT21 KNHC 051433 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212005 1500Z WED OCT 05 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 80.3W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 180SE 0SW 250NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 80.3W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 80.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 30.2N 81.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...125NE 100SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 31.4N 82.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 32.3N 83.8W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 80.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 051433 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2005 AT 13Z THE CENTER OF TAMMY PASSED OVER NOAA BUOY 41009...WHICH REPORTED A PRESSURE JUST UNDER 1004 MB. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BUOY AND NWS RADAR INDICATE THAT TAMMY IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. THIS RIGHTWARD DEFLECTION OF THE TRACK MAY BE A RESPONSE TO THE ASYMMETRIC DISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTION...WHICH REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. TAMMY IS LOCATED BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TURN TAMMY TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH THE CENTER WILL JUMP OR REFORM TO THE RIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTION. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON TAMMY OVERNIGHT...AND I AM GIVING THIS MODEL MORE THAN THE USUAL AMOUNT OF WEIGHT THIS MORNING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BECAUSE TAMMY IS MOVING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA COAST...AND BECAUSE MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH TAMMY IS WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...THE PRECISE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE LANDFALL OF THE CENTER IS OF RELATIVELY LITTLE IMPORTANCE. DOPPLER RADAR IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINDS ALOFT...ABOUT 35 KT. BASED ON EARLIER SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS THE INTENSITY IS PRESUMED TO STILL BE NEAR 35 KT. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE STORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE COULD ABATE JUST A LITTLE BIT BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO PREVENT RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. TAMMY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 28.9N 80.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 30.2N 81.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 31.4N 82.6W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 07/0000Z 32.3N 83.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 051434 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.4N 82.6W 42 1 X X 43 TAMPA FL X 2 X X 2 32.3N 83.8W 24 3 X X 27 CEDAR KEY FL 8 3 X X 11 FT PIERCE FL 99 X X X 99 ST MARKS FL 18 2 X X 20 COCOA BEACH FL 99 X X X 99 APALACHICOLA FL 5 5 X X 10 DAYTONA BEACH FL 99 X X X 99 PANAMA CITY FL 4 6 X X 10 JACKSONVILLE FL 68 X X X 68 PENSACOLA FL 1 4 X X 5 SAVANNAH GA 21 1 X X 22 MOBILE AL X 2 X X 2 CHARLESTON SC 3 2 X X 5 GULF 29N 85W 1 3 X X 4 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU C FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI D FROM 8AM FRI TO 8AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 051438 *** TCVAT1 TAMMY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT WED OCT 5 2005 .TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FLC009-031-035-089-109-127-GAC029-039-051-127-179-191-SCC013-015- 019-029-035-053-AMZ330-350-352-354-374-450-452-454-470-472-474- 550-570-052100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1021.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED OCT 5 2005 COCOA-BEACH-FL 28.32N 80.60W SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...JAX... ** WTNT31 KNHC 051442 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM TAMMY ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2005 ...TAMMY MOVING NORTHWARD OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA AND ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TAMMY WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE FLORIDA COAST LATER TODAY. DUE TO THE ANGLE OF APPROACH TO THE COASTLINE...THE SPECIFIC LOCATION AND TIME OF LANDFALL OF THE CENTER ARE UNCERTAIN. A DDITIONALLY...MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. TAMMY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...28.9 N... 80.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTUS82 KMLB 051457 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-047-141-147-052000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1057 AM EDT WED OCT 5 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM COCOA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH... ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM TAMMY IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AS IT MAKES PROGRESS NORTHWARD...KEEPING MOST OF THE WEATHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF LAND OVER THE MARINE AREA. FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN CANCELED AND IF TAMMY CONTINUES ON ITS PRESENT EVOLUTION TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM COCOA NORTH TO FLAGLER BEACH. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM COCOA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN IN BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MADE FOR THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES NORTH- NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AROUND 40 MPH.... POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS TAMMY MOVES NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM TAMMY IS NOW DANGEROUS HIGH SURF ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED NOW THAT THE WEST SIDE OF TAMMY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERLAND. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. PASSING RAIN SQUALLS WILL BRING SHORT DOWNPOURS THAT MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE CENTER OF TAMMY IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL IT PASSES NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA KEEPING THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY WEATHER OFFSHORE AND THE WIND IMPACT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT OVER LAND. WINDS WILL GUST FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NORTHERN BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND WEAKENING THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER OF TAMMY PULLS NORTHWARD. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT THE BEACHES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT BETWEEN 930 PM AND 1030 PM. THE DAYTONA BEACH PATROL REPORTED WAVES GOING TO THE SEA WALL AT HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE THE DUNE LINE HAS BEEN WEAKENED OR UNDERMINED FROM PRIOR STORMS ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COAST. LARGE BREAKING SURF OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE ROUGH POUNDING SURF...NUMEROUS STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR. EVEN AT LOW TIDE...THE HIGH SURF WILL BE A DANGER TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE WATER. SETS OF LARGE BREAKERS CAN KNOCK YOU DOWN AND MAKE YOU SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT. REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. ...MARINE IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM TAMMY IS PRIMARILY A MARINE IMPACT STORM FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL MAKE THE COASTAL WATERS EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. THE BUOY 20 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL WAS REPORTING 11 FOOT SEAS WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 23 KNOTS GUSTING TO 29 KNOTS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE RISK OF TORNADOES IS VERY LOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST. A FEW WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE NEARSHORE OR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN VOLUSIA COUNTY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 3PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. THE GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK CAN BE VIEWED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB PAGE AT...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB AND CLICKING ON HAZARDS. $$ HAGEMEYER ** WTUS82 KCHS 051545 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-370-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141- SCZ040-042>045-047>051-051930- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM TAMMY LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1145 AM EDT WED OCT 5 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM TAMMY MOVING NORTHWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GEORGIA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA NORTH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA OR ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH AND SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. TAMMY IS MOVING TO THE NORTH AT 14 MPH. A TURN MORE TO THE NORTH- NORTHWEST AND SOME DECREASE IN SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD MAKE QUICK PREPARATIONS FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS OR BRING THEM INSIDE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED VALUES TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN BANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WIND GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY BREAK SMALL LIMBS OR KNOCK DOWN WEAK OR DAMAGED TREES. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... WITH TAMMY EXPECTED TO MAKE LAND FALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... WIND AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MODERATE BEACH EROSION THROUGH THURSDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON BY 330 PM OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TAMMY CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ MTE ** WTUS82 KJAX 051609 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-GAZ154-166-052300- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1209 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2005 ...TAMMY MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL...ST JOHNS...AND FLAGLER COUNTIES AND CAMDEN AND GLYNN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FLAGLER BEACH AND 130 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE. TAMMY IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ONLY A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAMMY IS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AND WHILE THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST TODAY...YOU SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE CENTER POSITION AS MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME IN BANDS MOVING INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC. RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BOATS AND PROPERTY ALONG THE BEACHES SHOULD BE SECURED AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTLINES FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO PERSISTENT STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS. TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND ALSO THE TIDAL RIVERS INCLUDING THE ST. JOHNS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDES. WATER LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH OVER THE COUPLE DAYS AND ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. INTERESTS ALONG THE CANALS SHOULD KEEP VULNERABLE PROPERTY SECURED AND MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP CLOSE WATCH ON THE SECURITY OF YOUR BOATS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ROUGH SEAS OF UP TO 12 FEET. LOCAL INLETS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS. MARINERS NAVIGATING THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY AT ST ANDREWS SOUND ARE ADVISED THAT LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE LIKELY NEAR THE CHANNEL. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE COMMON WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 8 TO 10 INCHES. COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINFALL... PONDING OF WATER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS HAVE BEEN RUNNING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER BANDS ALONG THE COAST AND THE ST. JOHNS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AS BANDS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH TAMMY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TAMMY FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM TODAY. $$ LETRO ** WTCA41 TJSJ 051716 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL TAMMY ADVERTENCIA ESPECIAL NUMERO 2 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MIERCOLES 5 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...TAMMY MOVIENDOSE AL NORTE MAR AFUERA DE LA COSTA ORIENTAL DE FLORIDA... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO DESDE COCOA BEACH FLORIDA HACIA EL NORTE HASTA EL RIO SOUTH SANTEE CAROLINA DEL SUR. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTA EN EFECTO AVISO DE GALERNA AL NORTE DEL AREA DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL. FAVOR DE CONSULTAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR LAS OFICINAS LOCALES DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEORLOGIA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL TAMMY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 80.3 OESTE O COMO A 40 MILLAS AL NOR NORESTE DE CABO CANAVERAL FLORIDA Y COMO A 130 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. TAMMY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. UN GIRO AHCIA EL NOR NOROESTE CON ALGUNA REDUCION EN SU VELOCIDAD ES ANTICIPADO MAS TARDE DURANTE HOY. CON ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE TAMMY SE ESTARA ACERCANDOSE A LA COSTA DE LA FLORIDA MAS TARDE DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY. DEBIDO AL ANGULO DE ACERCAMIENTO A LA COSTA...EL LUGAR ESPECIFICO Y LA HORA DE ENTRADA A TIERRA DEL CENTRO ES INCIERTO. EN ADICION...LA MAYOR PARTE DE LOS VIENTOS FUERTES Y LAS LLUVIAS FUERTES ESTAN LOCALIZADOS BIEN AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO DE CIRCULACION. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ES POSIBLE ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1004 MB...29.65 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE TAMMY PRODUZCA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SOBRE PARTES DEL NORTE DE LA FLORIDA...EL SURESTE DE GEORGIA...EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL SUR...Y EL SURESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 8 A 10 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS ESTA TARDE Y ESTA NOCHE SOBRE EL NORESTE DE LA FLORIDA...EL SURESTE DEL GEORGIA...Y EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL SUR. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...28.9 NORTE... 80.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1004 MB. UNA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM EDT SEGIUDO POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN21 PHNC 051730 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/051721ZOCT2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.4N 99.6W TO 17.5N 101.7W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 051200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 99.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.4N 99.6W, APPROXIMATELY 35 NM SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS FLARING CONVECTION CONSOL- IDATING OVER A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTI- MATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 061730Z.// ** WTNT31 KNHC 051742 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM TAMMY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2005 ...TAMMY A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT PARALLELS THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST... AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BECAUSE TAMMY IS CURRENTLY MOVING ON A TRACK ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE...THE SPECIFIC LOCATION AND TIME OF LANDFALL OF THE CENTER ARE UNCERTAIN. ADDITIONALLY...MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. TAMMY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...29.4 N... 80.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 051750 *** TCVAT1 TAMMY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2005 .TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FLC031-035-089-109-GAC029-039-051-127-179-191-SCC013-015-019-029- 035-053-AMZ330-350-352-354-374-450-452-454-470-472-474-052100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1021.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2005 FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W $$ FLC009-127-AMZ550-570-052100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1021.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2005 COCOA-BEACH-FL 28.32N 80.60W FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...JAX... ** WTUS82 KMLB 051756 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-047-141-147-052000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 2 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES DISCONTINUED... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTH TO JUPITER INLET TONIGHT. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN IN BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT THE BEACHES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT BETWEEN 930 PM AND 1030 PM. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE THE DUNE LINE HAS BEEN WEAKENED OR UNDERMINED FROM PRIOR STORMS ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST. LARGE BREAKING SURF OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE ROUGH POUNDING SURF...NUMEROUS STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR. EVEN AT LOW TIDE...THE HIGH SURF WILL BE A DANGER TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE WATER. REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. ...MARINE IMPACTS... HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTH TO JUPITER INLET. THE BUOY 20 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL WAS REPORTING 12 FOOT SEAS WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 23 KNOTS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT BY NWS MELBOURNE ON TROPICAL STORM TAMMY. REGULAR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL RESUME FOR BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. $$ HAGEMEYER ** WTNT80 EGRR 051755 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.10.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL POSITION : 10.8N 145.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.10.2005 10.8N 145.3W WEAK 00UTC 06.10.2005 10.8N 146.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2005 10.8N 147.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2005 10.8N 148.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2005 10.9N 149.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2005 11.3N 150.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2005 12.1N 151.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2005 12.6N 152.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 17.8N 102.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.10.2005 17.8N 102.3W MODERATE 00UTC 07.10.2005 18.1N 103.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2005 19.1N 105.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 08.10.2005 19.9N 105.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2005 20.7N 106.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2005 21.4N 107.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 09.10.2005 21.8N 107.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 10.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 97.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.10.2005 16.7N 97.9W WEAK 00UTC 06.10.2005 16.4N 97.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 06.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM TAMMY ANALYSED POSITION : 29.0N 80.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL212005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.10.2005 29.0N 80.3W MODERATE 00UTC 06.10.2005 30.1N 82.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.10.2005 30.5N 83.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 07.10.2005 31.5N 84.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 07.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 051755