** WTIN20 DEMS 050610 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 05-10-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 23.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTNT25 KNHC 050831 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005 0900Z WED OCT 05 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 97.3W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 97.3W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 97.1W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.7N 97.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 97.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 050836 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT WED OCT 05 2005 ...STAN DISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING... AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST... OVER THE STATE OF OAXACA MEXICO. THE DISSIPATING DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR... AND THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STAN IS DISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH STAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...16.9 N... 97.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 050837 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT WED OCT 05 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT SAT OCT 8 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 99 X X X 99 99 X X X 99 99 X X X 99 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1AM THU TO 1PM THU C FROM 1PM THU TO 1AM FRI D FROM 1AM FRI TO 1AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 050850 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF STAN HAS BECOME VERY ILL-DEFINED. THEREFORE... THE SYSTEM IS LOSING CHARACTERISTICS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE DEPRESSION IS DISSIPATING OVER VERY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN... AND THE REMNANT SURFACE LOW WILL PROBABLY NO LONGER EXIST LATER TODAY. HOWEVER... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE REMAINING VORTICITY IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS COULD LEAD TO REGENERATION JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS... AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD BACK TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. EVEN THOUGH STAN IS DISSIPATING AND HAS LOST ALL CORE CONVECTION... SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS AROUND ITS PERIPHERY. ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY... THE MAIN THREAT FROM STAN CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL... WITH LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 16.9N 97.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 05/1800Z 16.7N 97.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 050854 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL STAN ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 17 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT MIERCOLES 5 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...STAN DISIPANDOSE SOBRE LAS MONTANAS DEL SURESTE DE MEXICO... ...TODAVIA CAPAZ DE PRODUCIR LLUVIAS FUERTES ADICIONALES E INUNDACIONES... A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL STAN ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 97.3 OESTE...SOBRE EL ESTADO DE OAXACA MEXICO. LA DEPRESION DISIPANDOSE SE HA ESTADO MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-SUROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH... 9 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE EL SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION REMANENTE SE MUEVA MUY LENTAMENTE SOBRE LAS MONTANAS DEL SURESTE DE MEXICO ESTA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 30 MPH... 45 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. STAN SE ESTA DISIPANDO SOBRE LAS MONTANAS DEL SURESTE DE MEXICO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1006 MILIBARAS...29.71 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE STAN PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SOBRE PARTES DEL SURESTE DE MEXICO. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 15 A 20 PULGADAS ASOCIADAS CON STAN. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO AMENAZANDO VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 AM CDT...16.9 NORTE... 97.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-SUROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 30 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1006 MILIBARAS. ESTA ES LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA PUBLICA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES SOBRE ESTE SISTEMA. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 051121 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM TAMMY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 730 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM FORMS JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED... RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS FORMED WITHIN THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. AT 730 AM EDT...1130Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 730 AM EDT...1130Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES... EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA AND ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF TAMMY WILL BE MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY. DUE TO THE ANGLE OF APPROACH TO THE COASTLINE... THE SPECIFIC LOCATION AND TIME OF LANDFALL OF THE CENTER ARE UNCERTAIN. ADDITIONALLY...MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. TAMMY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. REPEATING THE 730 AM EDT POSITION...28.4 N... 80.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 051122 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212005 1130Z WED OCT 05 2005 AT 730 AM EDT...1130Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 80.3W AT 05/1130Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 0SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 80.3W AT 05/1130Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 79.7W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 29.4N 81.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...125NE 100SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 30.9N 82.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 31.9N 83.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 32.8N 84.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 80.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 051123 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 730 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 730 AM EDT...1130Z...THE CENTER OF TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 30.9N 82.4W 41 X X X 41 FT MYERS FL 39 X X X 39 31.9N 83.5W 28 3 X X 31 VENICE FL 15 X 1 X 16 32.8N 84.4W 12 11 1 X 24 TAMPA FL 42 X X X 42 MYGF 266N 787W 15 X 1 X 16 CEDAR KEY FL 38 1 X X 39 MIAMI FL 70 X X X 70 ST MARKS FL 25 1 1 X 27 W PALM BEACH FL 99 X X X 99 APALACHICOLA FL 11 5 1 X 17 FT PIERCE FL 99 X X X 99 PANAMA CITY FL 6 7 3 X 16 COCOA BEACH FL 99 X X X 99 PENSACOLA FL X 6 4 X 10 DAYTONA BEACH FL 86 X X X 86 MOBILE AL X 2 4 X 6 JACKSONVILLE FL 49 X X X 49 GULFPORT MS X X 3 X 3 SAVANNAH GA 17 2 1 X 20 GULF 29N 85W 6 5 2 X 13 CHARLESTON SC 2 2 2 X 6 GULF 29N 87W X 2 3 X 5 MARCO ISLAND FL 19 X X X 19 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU C FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI D FROM 2AM FRI TO 2AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 051129 *** TCVAT1 TAMMY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 730 AM AST WED OCT 5 2005 .TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FLC009-031-035-089-109-127-GAC029-039-051-127-179-191-SCC013-015- 019-029-035-053-AMZ330-350-352-354-374-450-452-454-470-472-474- 550-570-051500- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1021.051005T1130Z-000000T0000Z/ 730 AM AST WED OCT 5 2005 COCOA-BEACH-FL 28.32N 80.60W SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...JAX... ** WTUS82 KJAX 051144 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-GAZ154-166-051700- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 743 AM EDT WED OCT 5 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL...ST JOHNS...AND FLAGLER COUNTIES AND CAMDEN AND GLYNN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 730 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FLAGLER BEACH AND 155 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE. TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ONLY A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL LATER TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAMMY IS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AND WHILE THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST TODAY...YOU SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE CENTER POSITION AS MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME IN BANDS MOVING INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC. RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTLINE TODAY. BOATS AND PROPERTY ALONG THE BEACHES SHOULD BE SECURED AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTLINES FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO PERSISTENT STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS. TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND ALSO THE TIDAL RIVERS INCLUDING THE ST. JOHNS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDES. WATER LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY SOUTH OF MATANZAS INLET ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH OVER THE COUPLE DAYS AND ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. INTERESTS ALONG THE CANALS SHOULD KEEP VULNERABLE PROPERTY SECURED AND MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP CLOSE WATCH ON THE SECURITY OF YOUR BOATS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH ROUGH SEAS OF UP TO 12 FEET. LOCAL INLETS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MARINERS NAVIGATING THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY AT ST ANDREWS SOUND ARE ADVISED THAT LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE LIKELY NEAR THE CHANNEL. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE COMMON WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 8 TO 10 INCHES. COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINFALL... PONDING OF WATER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND THE ST. JOHNS RIVER. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS BANDS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH TAMMY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TAMMY FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON TODAY. $$ LETRO ** WTCA41 TJSJ 051148 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL TAMMY ADVERTENCIA ESPECIAL NUMERO 1 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 730 AM EDT MIERCOLES 5 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...SE FORMA UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL JUSTO FUERA DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA... ...SE EMITEN AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL... IMAGENES DE RADAR Y OBSERVACIONES DE SUPERFICIE INDICAN QUE SE HA FORMADO UN CICLON TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA EXTENSA DE MAL TIEMPO AL NORTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. A LAS 730 AM EDT...1130Z...SE HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE COCOA BEACH FLORIDA HACIA EL NORTE HASTA EL RIO SOUTH SANTEE CAROLINA DEL SUR. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTA EN EFECTO AVISO DE GALERNA AL NORTE DEL AREA DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL. FAVOR DE CONSULTAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR LAS OFICINAS LOCALES DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEORLOGIA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 730 AM EDT...1130Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL TAMMY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 80.3 OESTE O COMO A 20 MILLAS AL ESTE DE CABO CANAVERAL FLORIDA Y COMO A 155 MILLAS AL SUR-SURESTE DE JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. TAMMY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...CON UNA DISMINUCION GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION. CON ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE TAMMY SE ESTARA MOVIENDO CASI PARALELO A LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA HOY. DEBIDO AL ANGULO DE ACERCAMIENTO A LA COSTA...EL LUGAR ESPECIFICO Y LA HORA DE ENTRADA A TIERRA DEL CENTRO ES INCIERTO. EN ADICION...LA MAYOR PARTE DE LOS VIENTOS FUERTES Y LAS LLUVIAS FUERTES ESTAN LOCALIZADOS BIEN AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO DE CIRCULACION. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ES POSIBLE ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1004 MB...29.65 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE TAMMY PRODUZCA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SOBRE PARTES DEL NORTE DE LA FLORIDA...EL SURESTE DE GEORGIA...EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL SUR...Y EL SURESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 8 A 10 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS ESTA TARDE Y ESTA NOCHE SOBRE EL NORESTE DE LA FLORIDA...EL SURESTE DEL GEORGIA...Y EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL SUR. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 730 AM EDT...28.4 NORTE... 80.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1004 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 051151 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 730 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2005 RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITHIN THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM IS SUFFICIENT TO CLASSIFY IT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY BEGAN TO DEPICT A CLOSED CIRCULATION AFTER ABOUT 06Z THIS MORNING... WHICH BECAME WELL-DEFINED BY 08Z ABOUT 40 MILES EAST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA. SURFACE WIND DIRECTION OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE LOCATION OF THE CIRCULATION ON RADAR... ALTHOUGH THE WINDS NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER ARE WEAK. ALL OF THE STRONGER WINDS AND CONVECTION OCCUPY THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM... MOST OF IT WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS OF 30 KT HAVE BEEN COMMON THIS MORNING... BUT MOSTLY OUTSIDE OF THE REGIONS OF STRONGEST RADAR ECHOES... SO IT SEEMS SAFE TO ASSUME THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN AREAS OF DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT. TROPICAL STORM TAMMY IS MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...WITH ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 335/14 BASED PRIMARILY ON RADAR FIXES. THE STEERING IS BEING PROVIDED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE LOW OVER THE GULF TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MOVES OFFSHORE. THEREFORE... ONLY A SUBTLE BEND TO THE WEST IN THE HEADING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS FORECAST... WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. DUE TO THE ANGLE OF APPROACH OF THE CENTER OF TAMMY TO THE COASTLINE... IT IS DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY THE LANDFALL TIME OR LOCATION OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER... IT IS MORE IMPORTANT TO FOCUS ON THE LARGE AREA OF WINDS AND CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER... WHICH NECESSITATES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A LONG STRETCH OF COASTLINE. SINCE TAMMY IS UNDER MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR... ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY... AND THE ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN WILL PROBABLY PERSIST. TAMMY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1130Z 28.4N 80.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 05/1800Z 29.4N 81.1W 40 KT...NEAR COASTLINE 24HR VT 06/0600Z 30.9N 82.4W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 06/1800Z 31.9N 83.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 07/0600Z 32.8N 84.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$