** WTNT25 KNHC 050230 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005 0300Z WED OCT 05 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 96.6W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 96.6W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 96.6W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.5N 97.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.5N 97.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 96.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 050231 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 ...STAN IS NOW A RAINMAKER... AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.8 WEST...OVER THE STATE OF OAXACA MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED BEFORE DISSIPATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY OVER WATER WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. STAN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. RAINFALL OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN THE STATES OF VERACRUZ...PUEBLA...AND OAXACA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...17.3 N... 96.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 050231 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT STAN HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND THE OVERALL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CENTER IS ALREADY WELL INLAND OVER THE STATE OF OAXACA MEXICO. SOME MODELS BRING STAN TO THE PACIFIC WHERE REGENERATION IS POSSIBLE. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME OTHER MODELS BRING A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION BACK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. I WAS TEMPTED TO WRITE THE LAST ADVISORY BUT THIS IS A LARGE SYSTEM WHICH IS STILL PRODUCING 25 TO 30-KNOT WINDS OVER WATER ON THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ON THE PACIFIC SIDE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM STAN CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 17.3N 96.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 16.5N 97.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 06/0000Z 16.5N 97.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 050231 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT STAN HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND THE OVERALL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CENTER IS ALREADY WELL INLAND OVER THE STATE OF OAXACA MEXICO. SOME MODELS BRING STAN TO THE PACIFIC WHERE REGENERATION IS POSSIBLE. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME OTHER MODELS BRING A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION BACK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. I WAS TEMPTED TO WRITE THE LAST ADVISORY BUT THIS IS A LARGE SYSTEM WHICH IS STILL PRODUCING 25 TO 30-KNOT WINDS OVER WATER ON THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ON THE PACIFIC SIDE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM STAN CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 17.3N 96.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 16.5N 97.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 06/0000Z 16.5N 97.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 050331 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005 0300Z WED OCT 05 2005 ...CORRECTION FOR SYNOPTIC POSITION... TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 96.6W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 96.6W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 96.6W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.5N 97.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.5N 97.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 96.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 050523 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.10.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 95.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.10.2005 15.8N 95.8W WEAK 12UTC 05.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 17.9N 102.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.10.2005 17.9N 102.3W WEAK 00UTC 06.10.2005 17.9N 102.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2005 18.9N 104.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2005 19.7N 105.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2005 20.5N 106.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2005 20.7N 106.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2005 21.4N 106.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2005 22.4N 107.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.10.2005 23.2N 107.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 26.9N 78.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.10.2005 26.9N 78.5W WEAK 12UTC 05.10.2005 28.8N 81.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2005 28.9N 83.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.10.2005 29.7N 85.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.10.2005 29.7N 86.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.10.2005 28.9N 86.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2005 29.0N 85.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 050523