** WTNT80 EGRR 041759 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.10.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 11.4N 143.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.10.2005 11.4N 143.3W WEAK 12UTC 05.10.2005 11.2N 145.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2005 11.3N 147.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2005 11.1N 148.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2005 10.7N 149.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2005 10.3N 151.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2005 10.7N 153.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2005 11.2N 155.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2005 11.8N 157.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2005 12.3N 159.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 17.2N 101.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.10.2005 17.2N 101.9W MODERATE 12UTC 06.10.2005 18.3N 103.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2005 19.5N 105.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2005 21.2N 106.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 08.10.2005 22.2N 107.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2005 22.5N 108.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2005 22.9N 108.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 09.10.2005 22.9N 108.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2005 23.4N 108.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.10.2005 23.4N 108.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE STAN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 94.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.10.2005 18.9N 94.5W STRONG 00UTC 05.10.2005 16.2N 95.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 05.10.2005 16.3N 95.4W DISSIPATED NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 26.3N 79.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.10.2005 26.3N 79.4W WEAK 12UTC 05.10.2005 28.9N 81.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2005 31.2N 82.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.10.2005 32.9N 83.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2005 33.7N 82.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2005 34.5N 81.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2005 36.2N 80.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2005 40.2N 78.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 09.10.2005 41.5N 75.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.10.2005 42.5N 73.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 10.10.2005 42.6N 74.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2005 41.3N 74.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 041759 ** WTNT45 KNHC 042040 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2005 STAN CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND AND WEAKEN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 230/5...AND THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DISSIPATES OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF STAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WHERE SOME REGENERATION IS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM STAN CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 17.8N 95.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 17.3N 96.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 042040 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005 2100Z TUE OCT 04 2005 AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL COASTAL WARNINGS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 95.6W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS..350NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 95.6W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 95.4W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.3N 96.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 95.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 042041 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE AS STAN MOVES FARTHER INLAND... AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL COASTAL WARNINGS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES... 170 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...PARTICULARLY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. STAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES ... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. RAINFALL OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN THE STATES OF VERACRUZ...PUEBLA...AND OAXACA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...17.8 N... 95.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 042041 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 99 X X X 99 99 X X X 99 99 X X X 99 MMVR 192N 961W 38 X X X 38 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1PM WED TO 1AM THU C FROM 1AM THU TO 1PM THU D FROM 1PM THU TO 1PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$