** WTSR20 WSSS 040600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT35 KNHC 041213 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE STAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 CORRECTED FOR DISTANCE FROM VERACRUZ ...STAN NEARING THE MEXICAN COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO CHILITEPEC. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES... 195 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH... 16 KM/HR. A CONTINUED SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK... STAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...18.7 N... 94.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 041436 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 ...STAN MAKES LANDFALL SOUTHEAST OF VERACRUZ NEAR PUNTA ROCA PARTIDA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO CHILITEPEC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE STAN WAS LOCATED JUST INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES... 135 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION. STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. RAINFALL OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN THE STATES OF VERACRUZ AND PUEBLA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...18.6 N... 95.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 041437 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE STAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005 1500Z TUE OCT 04 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO CHILITEPEC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 95.1W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 60SE 10SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 95.1W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 94.8W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.3N 95.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 45SE 45SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.0N 96.2W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 95.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 041438 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2005 ALTHOUGH THE PRECISE CENTER POSTITION IS UNCERTAIN...BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 10Z...STAN SHOULD BE JUST INLAND OF THE COASTLINE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER COULD BE SOMEWHAT FARTHER INLAND...BUT SINCE DECOUPLING OF THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS IS POSSIBLE IN RESPONSE TO THE TERRAIN OF MEXICO...I PREFER TO STAY WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOTION FOR THE SURFACE CENTER. CONTINUITY OF THIS TRACK...WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE SURFACE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES. THE MOST RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA NEAR 10Z INDICATED AN INTENSITY OF 70 KT. WHILE THERE WAS A BURST OF VERY COLD CONVECTION SINCE THEN...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE AIRCRAFT CREW REPORTED DETERIORATION OF THE EYEWALL ON THEIR LAST PAST. BALANCING THESE FACTORS LEADS ME TO HOLD THE INTENSITY AT 70 KT. A RAPID DECAY OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES INLAND OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO. STAN POSES A VERY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THREAT...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD-SLIDES ARE VERY LIKELY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 18.6N 95.1W 70 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 05/0000Z 18.3N 95.7W 45 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 05/1200Z 18.0N 96.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 041438 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE STAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 18.0N 96.2W 62 X X X 62 MMTX 210N 974W 5 X X X 5 99 X X X 99 MMVR 192N 961W 74 X X X 74 99 X X X 99 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7AM WED TO 7PM WED C FROM 7PM WED TO 7AM THU D FROM 7AM THU TO 7AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN21 PHNC 041430 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION/041430ZOCT05// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040651Z OCT 05// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 94.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 94.6W, IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION AND ORGANZATION HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 041204Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS DISSIPATED. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF LINEAR FLOW. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.// ** WTPN21 PHNC 041430 *** ALERT ATCF MIL 99X XXX 051004000000 2005100400 SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION 041421Z OCT 05// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040651Z OCT 05// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 040700)// RMKS/ 1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A. // EP, 99, 2005100200, , BEST, 0, 127N, 927W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 99, 2005100206, , BEST, 0, 128N, 931W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 99, 2005100212, , BEST, 0, 128N, 935W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 99, 2005100218, , BEST, 0, 129N, 940W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D, EP, 99, 2005100300, , BEST, 0, 132N, 945W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D, EP, 99, 2005100306, , BEST, 0, 137N, 946W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D, EP, 99, 2005100312, , BEST, 0, 141N, 946W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D, EP, 99, 2005100318, , BEST, 0, 146N, 940W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D, EP, 99, 2005100400, , BEST, 0, 146N, 943W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D, ** WTPN21 PHNC 041430 *** ALERT ATCF MIL 99X XXX 051004000000 2005100400 SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION 041421Z OCT 05// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040651Z OCT 05// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 040700)// RMKS/ 1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A. // EP, 99, 2005100200, , BEST, 0, 127N, 927W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 99, 2005100206, , BEST, 0, 128N, 931W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 99, 2005100212, , BEST, 0, 128N, 935W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 99, 2005100218, , BEST, 0, 129N, 940W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D, EP, 99, 2005100300, , BEST, 0, 132N, 945W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D, EP, 99, 2005100306, , BEST, 0, 137N, 946W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D, EP, 99, 2005100312, , BEST, 0, 141N, 946W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D, EP, 99, 2005100318, , BEST, 0, 146N, 940W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D, EP, 99, 2005100400, , BEST, 0, 146N, 943W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D, ** WTNT80 EGRR 041712 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.10.2005 DUE TO COMPUTER PROBLEMS AT EXETER, THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE 12UTC MODEL RUN IS NOT AVAILABLE AT PRESENT. WE ANTICIPATE A DELAY OF ABOUT 2 HOURS. WILL SEND AS SOON AS AVAILABLE. MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 041712 ** WTNT35 KNHC 041742 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM STAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 ...STAN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INLAND...BUT HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES... AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING AND ADJUSTED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA TO COATZACOALCOS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.5 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES... 150 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/HR. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...PARTICULARLY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. STAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...28.18 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. RAINFALL OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN THE STATES OF VERACRUZ AND PUEBLA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...18.0 N... 95.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 988 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$