** WTNT25 KNHC 040610 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005 0600Z TUE OCT 04 2005 AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO CHILITEPEC. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO CHILITEPEC. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 94.1W AT 04/0600Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 70 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 45SE 0SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 45SE 0SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 94.1W AT 04/0600Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 93.2W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.0N 94.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 45SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.9N 94.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 95 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.7N 95.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.5N 95.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.5N 96.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 94.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 040610 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT THU OCT 6 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 18.9N 94.9W 73 X X X 73 MMVR 192N 961W 36 X 1 X 37 18.7N 95.2W 60 X X X 60 MMFR 185N 926W 15 X 1 2 18 18.5N 95.5W 48 X X X 48 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 3 3 MMSO 238N 982W X X 1 6 7 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 3 3 MMTM 222N 979W X 1 3 8 12 GULF 27N 96W X X X 2 2 MMTX 210N 974W 1 6 5 4 16 GULF 25N 96W X X X 5 5 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM TUE TO 7AM WED C FROM 7AM WED TO 7PM WED D FROM 7PM WED TO 7PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 040622 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM STAN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 ...STAN ACCELERATES TOWARD THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO... ...VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD... AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO CHILITEPEC. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO CHILITEPEC. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES... 220 KM... EAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH... 17 KM/HR. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF STAN WILL BE VERY NEAR THE COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STAN IS VERY CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AS A HURRICANE OF CATEGORY ONE OR TWO INTENSITY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS FALLING RAPIDLY... WITH THE LATEST MEASUREMENT OF 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...19.3 N... 94.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 040626 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2005 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST FOR STAN. THE TRACK FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF STAN TO THE COAST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... MORE QUICKLY THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER... IT IS POSSIBLE STAN WILL REACH THE COAST EVEN FASTER THAN INDICATED BELOW. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... REQUIRING AN EXTENSION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING EASTWARD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD DUE TO THE RAPIDLY FALLING CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE WIND RADII FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED FOR POINTS OFFSHORE OR NEAR THE COAST. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0600Z 19.3N 94.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 19.0N 94.6W 70 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 18.9N 94.9W 80 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 18.7N 95.2W 90 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 06/0000Z 18.5N 95.5W 65 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 07/0000Z 18.5N 96.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTIN20 DEMS 040630 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 04-10-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 22.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPN21 PHNC 040700 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/040651ZOCT05// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030651Z OCT 05// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 110 NM RADIUS OF 14.6N 94.3W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 032330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 94.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 94.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 94.3W, IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. 040018Z AMSU AND 040029 SSMI PASSES DEPICT AN ORGANIZED CIRCULATION. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION AND ORGANZATION HAS SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO PERSIST. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 050700Z.// ** WTPN21 PHNC 040700 *** ALERT ATCF MIL 99X XXX 051004000000 2005100400 14.6 265.7 -999.9-999.9 110 14.6 265.7 040700 0510040651 1 SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 040651Z OCT 05// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030651Z OCT 05// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 030700)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 110 NM RADIUS OF 14.6N 94.3W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 032330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 94.3W. THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY AT 03 KNOTS. THE NEXT SATELLITE INVESTIGATION IS SCHEDULED FOR 050600Z. 2. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 050700Z. // EP, 99, 2005100200, , BEST, 0, 127N, 927W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 99, 2005100206, , BEST, 0, 128N, 931W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 99, 2005100212, , BEST, 0, 128N, 935W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 99, 2005100218, , BEST, 0, 129N, 940W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D, EP, 99, 2005100300, , BEST, 0, 132N, 945W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D, EP, 99, 2005100306, , BEST, 0, 137N, 946W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D, EP, 99, 2005100312, , BEST, 0, 141N, 946W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D, EP, 99, 2005100318, , BEST, 0, 146N, 940W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D, EP, 99, 2005100400, , BEST, 0, 146N, 943W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D, ** WTCA45 TJSJ 040654 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL STAN ADVERTENCIA ESPECIAL NUMERO 12 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT MARTES 4 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...STAN ACELERA HACIA LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO... ...MUY CERCA DE INTENSIDAD DE HURACAN... ...SE EXTIENDE EL AVISO DE HURACAN HACIA EL ESTE... A LA 100 AM CDT...0600Z...EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA CAMBIADO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DESDE EL ESTE DE PUNTA LAGARTO HACIA EL ESTE HASTA CHILITEPEC. AHORA ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DESDE CABO ROJO HACIA EL SUR Y ESTE HASTA CHILITEPEC. LAS PREPARACIONES PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADAS PRONTO EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LA 1 AM CDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL STAN ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 94.1 OESTE O COMO A 135 MILLAS... 220 KM...AL ESTE DE VERACRUZ MEXICO. STAN SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-SUROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH... 17 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE PRONOSTICA UNA DISMINUCION GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE SATN ESTARA MUY CERCA DE LA COSTA TARDE ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 70 MPH... 110 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. STAN ESTA MUY CERCA DE INTENSIDAD DE HURACAN Y SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SE ESPERA QUE STAN LLEGUE A LA COSTA DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO COMO UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA UNO O DOS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KM DEL CENTRO. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICA QUE LA PRESION CENTRAL ESTA BAJANDO RAPIDAMENTE...CON LA MEDIDA MAS RECIENTE DE 982 MILIBARAS...29.00 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE STAN PRODUZCA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SOBRE PARTES DEL SURESTE DE MEXICO...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 1 AM CDT...19.3 NORTE... 94.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-SUROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 982 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 040858 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 ...STAN BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO... AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...FROM NORTH OF PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO CHILITEPEC. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES... 195 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR. A CONTINUED SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK... STAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...18.8 N... 94.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 040858 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE STAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005 0900Z TUE OCT 04 2005 AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...FROM NORTH OF PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO CHILITEPEC. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 94.4W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 60SE 30SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 94.4W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 94.1W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.4N 95.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 45NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.2N 96.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 94.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 040859 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE STAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 18.2N 96.2W 55 X X X 55 MMTX 210N 974W 6 X X X 6 99 X X X 99 MMVR 192N 961W 59 X X X 59 99 X X X 99 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1AM WED TO 1PM WED C FROM 1PM WED TO 1AM THU D FROM 1AM THU TO 1AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 040900 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2005 MANY UNEXPECTED CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED WITH STAN OVERNIGHT. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN IN THE SYSTEM FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... AND THE CENTER FIXES INDICATE STAN HAS BEEN MOVING PERSISTENTLY SOUTHWESTWARD OR 235/10. THIS IS MUCH FASTER THAN ANY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WERE FORECASTING... AND THERE DOES NOT NOW APPEAR TO BE ANY OBVIOUS REASON WHY THIS MOTION WILL NOT CONTINUE. UNLESS STAN SLOWS DOWN OR CHANGES DIRECTION VERY SOON... IT WILL CROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ANTICIPATES THE CENTER TO BE ONSHORE IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS... AND TO CONTINUE INLAND INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO WHERE IT SHOULD DISSIPATE IN LESS THAN 36 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH STAN WILL PROBABLY BE MOVING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ONCE IT IS INLAND... IT COULD STILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF COMPLEX TERRAIN. HOW STRONG STAN HAS BECOME THIS MORNING IS A BIT SPECULATIVE... BUT MOST OF THE AVAILABLE DATA SUPPORT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 65 KT AND MAKING STAN A HURRICANE. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT... AND AS I TYPE WAS JUST MEASURED AT 979 MB. FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING IN RESPONSE AND ARE VERY CLOSE TO SUPPORTING 65 KT SURFACE WINDS. THE AIRCRAFT RADAR DEPICTS WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL BANDING THAT ALMOST CLASSIFIES AS AN EYEWALL. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS ALSO BECOME VERY IMPRESSIVE... WITH AN EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION DURING THE NIGHT AND CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -90C. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 65 KT. WHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STAN INLAND AT 12 HOURS WITH A 65 KT INTENSITY... IT COULD BE STRONGER AT LANDFALL. PREPARATIONS MUST BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 18.8N 94.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 18.4N 95.4W 65 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 05/0600Z 18.2N 96.2W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 040925 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN STAN ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 13 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT MARTES 4 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...STAN SE CONVIERTE EN UN HURACAN A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERCA A LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO... A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900Z...EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA CAMBIADO LA PARTE NORTE DEL AVISO DE HURACAN A UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...DESDE EL NORTE DEL PALMA SOLA HASTA CABO ROJO. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DESDE PALMA SOLA HACIA EL SUR Y ESTE HASTA CHILITEPEC. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADAS PRONTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN STAN ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 94.4 OESTE O COMO A 120 MILLAS... 195 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE VERACRUZ MEXICO. STAN SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL SUROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH... 19 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UNA CONTINUACION DEL MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL SUROESTE CON UNA DISMINUCION GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION HOY. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE STAN ENTRE A TIERRA DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 75 MPH... 120 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. STAN ES UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR -SIMPSON. SON POSIBLES ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD ANTES DE ENTRAR A TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 982 MILIBARAS...29.00 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE STAN PRODUZCA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SOBRE PARTES DEL SURESTE DE MEXICO...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 AM CDT...18.8 NORTE... 94.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...SUROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 982 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTNT65 KNHC 040925 *** TCUAT5 HURRICANE STAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 425 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 ...STAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY... SHORTLY AFTER THE 4 AM CDT ADVISORY WAS TRANSMITTED...DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE STAN HAVE INCREASED TO 80 MPH. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 041141 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE STAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 ...STAN NEARING THE MEXICAN COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO CHILITEPEC. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES... 195 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH... 16 KM/HR. A CONTINUED SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK... STAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...18.7 N... 94.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 041155 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN STAN ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 13A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT MARTES 4 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...STAN ACERCANDOSE A LA COSTA DE MEXICO... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DESDE PALMA SOLA HACIA EL SUR Y ESTE HASTA CHILITEPEC. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD YA DEBEN HABER SIDO COMPLETADOS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL NORTE DE PALMA SOLA HASTA CABO ROJO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 7 AM CDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN STAN ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 94.7 OESTE O COMO A 165 MILLAS... 195 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE VERACRUZ MEXICO. STAN SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL SUROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH... 16 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UNA CONTINUACION DEL MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL SUROESTE CON UNA DISMINUCION GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION HOY. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE STAN ENTRE A TIERRA DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 80 MPH... 130 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. STAN ES UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR -SIMPSON. SON POSIBLES ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD ANTES DE ENTRAR A TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 979 MILIBARAS...28.91 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE STAN PRODUZCA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SOBRE PARTES DEL SURESTE DE MEXICO...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 7 AM CDT...18.7 NORTE... 94.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...SUROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 979 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$