** WTSR20 WSSS 031800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT25 KNHC 040232 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005 0300Z TUE OCT 04 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. ALTHOUGH HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER...AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO CHILITEPEC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 93.4W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 45SE 0SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 45SE 0SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 93.4W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 93.1W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.7N 94.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 45SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.4N 94.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.1N 95.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.9N 96.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.5N 96.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 93.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 040232 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT MON OCT 03 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT THU OCT 6 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 19.4N 94.8W 57 X X X 57 MMVR 192N 961W 27 1 1 X 29 19.1N 95.5W 37 X X X 37 MMFR 185N 926W 17 X 1 X 18 18.9N 96.0W 27 1 1 1 30 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 3 3 MMSO 238N 982W X X 1 7 8 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 3 3 MMTM 222N 979W X 2 6 6 14 GULF 27N 96W X X X 2 2 MMTX 210N 974W 2 9 4 4 19 GULF 25N 96W X X 1 4 5 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM TUE TO 7AM WED C FROM 7AM WED TO 7PM WED D FROM 7PM WED TO 7PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 040236 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT MON OCT 03 2005 ...STAN STRENGTHENING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. ALTHOUGH HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER...AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO CHILITEPEC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 93.4 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES... 305 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND STAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...19.9 N... 93.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 040238 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2005 THERE HAS BEEN NO AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE OF STAN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE NEXT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR AROUND 0500Z. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR/OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER BUT NO WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES ARE EVIDENT. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT IN ACCORD WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE STATISTICAL RAPID INTENSITY INDEX SHOWS A 49 PER CENT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION... DEFINED AS AN INCREASE OF 25 KT OVER 24 HOURS. MY OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS PROBABLY A CONSERVATIVE ONE. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION BEYOND 36 HOURS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO. WITHOUT THE AIRCRAFT...THE CENTER LOCATION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/06. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TEXAS IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER 2 DAYS OR SO. THIS PATTERN WOULD STEER STAN ACROSS THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN GULF COULD COMPLICATE THE STEERING PATTERN. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT STAN COULD BECOME VERTICALLY DECOUPLED WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST...AND THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL PART OF THE CIRCULATION DRAGGED EASTWARD INTO THE ABOVEMENTIONED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES. THE TRACK MODELS HAVE BECOME DIVERGENT AND SOME...E.G. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND NOGAPS...DO NOT A LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST IS INCREASING. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 19.9N 93.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 19.7N 94.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 19.4N 94.8W 75 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 19.1N 95.5W 85 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 18.9N 96.0W 85 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 07/0000Z 18.5N 96.5W 35 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 040243 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL STAN ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT LUNES 3 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...STAN INTENSIFICANDOSE SOBRE LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE...PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN PRONTO... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA DE MEXICO DESDE AL ESTE DE PUNTA LAGARTO HASTA CHILITEPEC. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN AVISO DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DESDE CABO ROJO HACIA EL SUR HASTA PUNTA EL LAGARTO. AUNQUE LAS CONDICIONES DE HURACAN NO SE ESPERAN QUE LLEGUE A LA COSTA DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL LLEGARAN ANTES DEL CENTRO...POR LO TANTO LAS PREPARACIONES PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE ESTAR LISTAS POR SER COMPLETADAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL STAN ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 93.4 OESTE O COMO A 190 MILLAS...305 KM...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE VERACRUZ MEXICO. STAN SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH... 11 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 65 MPH... 100 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. Y STAN SE PUEDE CONVERTIR EL MARTES EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 990 MILIBARAS...29.23 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE STAN PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS TOTALES DE CERCA DE 15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 PM CDT...19.9 NORTE... 93.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 990 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ CASTRO ** WTPN31 PHNC 032200 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (OTIS) WARNING NR 023A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 25.3N 113.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 25.3N 113.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 26.5N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 27.0N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 27.5N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 11 FEET. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: INSERTED DESIGNATION FOR FINAL WARNING.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 040532 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 04.10.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OTIS ANALYSED POSITION : 25.7N 113.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.10.2005 25.7N 113.3W WEAK 12UTC 04.10.2005 26.1N 113.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 05.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 16.7N 100.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.10.2005 16.7N 100.8W WEAK 12UTC 06.10.2005 17.8N 103.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.10.2005 19.2N 105.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.10.2005 20.2N 106.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 08.10.2005 21.1N 107.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2005 21.5N 108.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2005 21.7N 109.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 09.10.2005 21.5N 109.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.10.2005 21.3N 109.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM STAN ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 93.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.10.2005 19.5N 93.0W MODERATE 12UTC 04.10.2005 19.5N 94.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2005 19.5N 94.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 05.10.2005 16.2N 95.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 06.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 040532 ** WTNT65 KNHC 040553 *** TCUAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1250 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 ...STAN MOVING MORE QUICKLY TOWARD THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO... AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF STAN HAS MOVED MORE QUICKLY TOWARD THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO THAN FORECAST IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO INDICATES THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS FALLING RAPIDLY... AND STAN COULD VERY SOON BECOME A HURRICANE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AFTER 100 AM CDT TO UPDATE THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. THE SPECIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR 100 AM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$