** WTPZ25 KNHC 032022 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005 2100Z MON OCT 03 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 113.4W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 113.4W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 113.2W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 26.5N 114.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.0N 114.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 27.5N 115.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 113.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 032022 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON OCT 03 2005 THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS SINCE THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS VANISHED FOR THE PAST 6 TO 8 HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AND OBSERVATIONS FROM AUTOMATIC STATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUN WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION ARE ABOUT 25 KNOTS. OTIS IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN A DRY AIR ENVIRONMENT AND MOVING OVER INCREASING COOLER WATERS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST UNTIL DISSIPATION. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 25.6N 113.4W 25 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 26.5N 114.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 04/1800Z 27.0N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 05/0600Z 27.5N 115.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 032039 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2005 ALTHOUGH THE PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS...FROM 700 MB DUE TO AIRSPACE RESTRICTIONS...WERE ONLY 41 KT...DROPSONDES IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANT REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF NEAR 50 KT...WHICH WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. STAN HAS BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP COLD CONVECTION SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THUS FAR THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN RESTRICTED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS STILL APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING...WITH THE SHIPS MODEL NOW TAKING STAN UP TO 92 KT PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THIS GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WIND FIELDS FROM GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SOME DECOUPLING OF THE MID AND LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS COULD OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL...AND IF THIS OCCURS I WOULD EXPECT SOME LAST MINUTE WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THIS IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER. EARLIER IN THE DAY STAN MOVED LITTLE...WITH THE CENTER LAGGING PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT AIRCRAFT FIX SUGGESTS THAT A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION HAS RESUMED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS BASED ON A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE 255/6. MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NORTH OF STAN. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS BRACKETED BY THE UKMET AND NOGAPS...WHICH TAKE STAN WESTWARD TO A LANDFALL IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...AND THE GFDL...WHICH TAKES STAN SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A LANDFALL IN 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFS...AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 20.0N 92.6W 50 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 19.7N 93.5W 60 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 19.4N 94.2W 70 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 19.2N 95.0W 80 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 19.1N 95.8W 80 KT 72HR VT 06/1800Z 19.0N 97.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 032039 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT MON OCT 03 2005 ...STAN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO CHILITEPEC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. ALTHOUGH HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER...AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST OR ABOUT 240 MILES... 385 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND STAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...20.0 N... 92.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 032039 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005 2100Z MON OCT 03 2005 AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO CHILITEPEC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. ALTHOUGH HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER...AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 92.6W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 45SE 0SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 45SE 0SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 92.6W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 92.1W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.7N 93.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 45SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.4N 94.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 19.2N 95.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.1N 95.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.0N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 92.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 032039 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT MON OCT 03 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT THU OCT 6 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 19.4N 94.2W 57 X X X 57 MMVR 192N 961W 16 6 2 1 25 19.2N 95.0W 37 1 X X 38 MMFR 185N 926W 21 X X 1 22 19.1N 95.8W 21 3 1 1 26 MMMD 210N 897W X X 1 2 3 MMSO 238N 982W X X 2 7 9 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 4 4 MMTM 222N 979W X 1 7 6 14 GULF 27N 96W X X X 2 2 MMTX 210N 974W X 8 6 4 18 GULF 25N 96W X X 1 5 6 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1PM TUE TO 1AM WED C FROM 1AM WED TO 1PM WED D FROM 1PM WED TO 1PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 032050 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL STAN ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT LUNES 3 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...STAN CONTINUA INTENSIFICANDOSE... A LAS 4 PM CDT...2100Z...EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA DE MEXICO DESDE AL ESTE DE PUNTA LAGARTO HASTA CHILITEPEC. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN AVISO DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DESDE CABO ROJO HACIA EL SUR HASTA PUNTA EL LAGARTO. AUNQUE LAS CONDICIONES DE HURACAN NO SE ESPERAN QUE LLEGUE A LA COSTA DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL LLEGARAN ANTES DEL CENTRO...POR LO TANTO LAS PREPARACIONES PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE ESTAR LISTAS POR SER COMPLETADAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 4 PM CDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL STAN ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 92.6 OESTE O COMO A 240 MILLAS...385 KM...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE VERACRUZ MEXICO. STAN SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE SUROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH... 11 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH... 95 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. Y STAN SE PUEDE CONVERTIR EN HURACAN ESTA NOCHE O MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ES DE 995 MILIBARAS...29.38 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE STAN PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS TOTALES DE CERCA DE 15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 PM CDT...20.0 NORTE... 92.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE SUROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 995 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 PM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ CASTRO ** WTPN31 PHNC 032200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (OTIS) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 25.3N 113.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 25.3N 113.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 26.5N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 27.0N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 27.5N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040400Z, 041000Z, 041600Z AND 042200Z.// ** WTNT35 KNHC 032343 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM STAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT MON OCT 03 2005 ...STAN MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. ALTHOUGH HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER...AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO CHILITEPEC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES... 340 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND STAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...20.1 N... 93.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$