** WTSR20 WSSS 030600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 031200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 031200UTC 27N 116E MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 1008HPA = ** WTKO20 RKSL 031200 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9 NAME TD 0519 LONGWANG ANALYSIS POSITION 031200UTC 27.0N 116.0E MOVEMENT WNW 10KT PRES 1008HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPZ35 KNHC 031429 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON OCT 03 2005 ...OTIS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...NORTHWEST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TODAY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 8 AM PDT POSITION...25.2 N...112.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THIS WILL BE THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON WEAKENING OTIS. THE NEXT FORECAST/ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 031429 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005 1500Z MON OCT 03 2005 AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 112.9W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 112.9W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 112.8W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 25.6N 113.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 26.5N 114.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 27.0N 114.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 27.5N 115.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 28.0N 116.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 112.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 031430 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT MON OCT 03 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED AS STAN CONTINUES WESTWARD IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. ALTHOUGH HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER...AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 92.3 WEST OR ABOUT 330 MILES... 535 KM... EAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 265 MILES... 430 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR. A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND STAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTER OF STAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...20.4 N... 92.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 031430 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON OCT 03 2005 DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED SOUTH OF AN AREA OF A FEW THUNDERSTORM CELLS. INITIAL INTENISTY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS AND FURTHER WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. OTIS APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR TWO. OTIS COULD STILL GENERATE SPORADIC BURTS OF CONVECTION. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 25.2N 112.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 25.6N 113.3W 25 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 26.5N 114.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 05/0000Z 27.0N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 05/1200Z 27.5N 115.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 06/1200Z 28.0N 116.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 031430 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005 1500Z MON OCT 03 2005 AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. ALTHOUGH HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER...AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.3W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 45SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.3W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 91.9W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.2N 93.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 94.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.8N 95.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.5N 96.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 75SE 60SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.0N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 92.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 031431 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT MON OCT 03 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT THU OCT 6 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 20.0N 94.7W 52 1 X X 53 MMVR 192N 961W 23 2 1 1 27 19.8N 95.5W 35 1 X X 36 MMFR 185N 926W 4 1 2 4 11 19.5N 96.2W 23 2 1 1 27 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 3 3 MMSO 238N 982W X X 3 7 10 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 4 4 MMTM 222N 979W X 5 6 5 16 GULF 27N 96W X X X 2 2 MMTX 210N 974W 2 12 4 3 21 GULF 25N 96W X X 1 5 6 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7AM TUE TO 7PM TUE C FROM 7PM TUE TO 7AM WED D FROM 7AM WED TO 7AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 031458 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2005 THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT IS SCHEDULED FOR 18Z. IN THE MEANTIME...THE HAS BEEN A MARKED INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. A STATION ON CAYOS ARCAS VERY NEAR THE PRESUMED CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 997 MB. BECAUSE THE OVERNIGHT AIRCRAFT FOUND VERY LITTLE WIND NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING INCREASED TO 40 KT AT THIS TIME. IT IS ALSO UNCLEAR JUST HOW CLOSE THE CENTER IS TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. IN ANY EVENT...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH LIGHT SHEAR... GOOD OUTFLOW...AND WARM WATER. I ASSUME THE WIND FIELD IS IN THE PROCESS OF CONTRACTING IN RESPONSE TO THE CHANGES IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN...AND ONCE THIS OCCURS A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION RATE COULD OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE GFDL MODEL IS NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC...AND THIS COULD BE DUE TO ISSUES...EITHER REAL OR IMAGINED...WITH TOPOGRAPHY HAVING A NEGATIVE INFLUENCE ON THE CYCLONE'S STRUCTURE NEAR LANDFALL. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET ALL MAINTAIN ENOUGH RIDGING IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO TAKE STAN...OR AT LEAST ITS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...INLAND INTO MEXICO. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SLOWS OR STALLS THE SURFACE CIRCULATION HOWEVER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS INTERACTION WITH HIGH TERRAIN AS STAN APPROACHES THE COAST COULD CAUSE A SLOWER MOTION THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ALTHOUGH LANDFALL IS NOT FORECAST FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE COASTLINE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. THIS IS THE REASON FOR ISSUING THE HURRICANE WARNING AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 20.4N 92.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 20.2N 93.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 20.0N 94.7W 65 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 19.8N 95.5W 75 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 19.5N 96.2W 80 KT 72HR VT 06/1200Z 19.0N 97.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 031600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (OTIS) WARNING NR 022 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031200Z --- NEAR 24.7N 112.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 24.7N 112.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 25.6N 113.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 26.5N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 27.0N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 27.5N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 28.0N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032200Z, 040400Z, 041000Z AND 041600Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 031733 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.10.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OTIS ANALYSED POSITION : 24.2N 112.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.10.2005 24.2N 112.8W WEAK 00UTC 04.10.2005 25.4N 113.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 04.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 10.7N 144.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.10.2005 10.7N 144.3W WEAK 12UTC 05.10.2005 10.6N 146.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2005 10.4N 148.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2005 10.6N 149.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2005 10.4N 151.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2005 10.2N 154.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2005 10.4N 156.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2005 11.2N 159.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2005 11.8N 162.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2005 12.2N 165.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 18.9N 102.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.10.2005 18.9N 102.9W WEAK 12UTC 06.10.2005 19.2N 104.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 07.10.2005 22.8N 106.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.10.2005 22.1N 107.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2005 22.9N 108.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 08.10.2005 23.6N 110.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 09.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM STAN ANALYSED POSITION : 20.2N 91.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.10.2005 20.2N 91.9W MODERATE 00UTC 04.10.2005 19.7N 93.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2005 19.6N 94.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2005 20.2N 96.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 05.10.2005 20.7N 97.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 24.5N 79.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.10.2005 24.5N 79.3W WEAK 12UTC 05.10.2005 27.0N 80.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2005 28.2N 83.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.10.2005 27.8N 84.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2005 28.9N 87.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2005 28.6N 88.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2005 27.8N 88.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2005 27.3N 88.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2005 27.1N 86.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.10.2005 27.9N 84.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 031733 ** WTNT35 KNHC 031748 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM STAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT MON OCT 03 2005 ...STAN MEANDERING AS IT STRENGTHENS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. ALTHOUGH HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER...AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 92.3 WEST OR ABOUT 330 MILES... 535 KM... EAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 265 MILES... 430 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. STAN HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER...A MOTION TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 MPH... 90 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND STAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO THE CENTER OF STAN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...20.3 N... 92.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 55 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$