** WTPZ35 KNHC 030600 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005 ...OTIS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...FURTHER WEAKENING ANTICIPATED... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 112.6 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES... 290 KM... WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 90 MILES... 145 KM... SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH ... 9 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OR VERY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT OR MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. REPEATING THE 11 PM PDT POSITION...23.6 N...112.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM PDT. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 030600 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.10.2005 TROPICAL STORM OTIS ANALYSED POSITION : 23.1N 112.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.10.2005 23.1N 112.1W MODERATE 12UTC 03.10.2005 23.7N 112.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 04.10.2005 25.7N 112.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2005 26.3N 112.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 05.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.10.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 17.5N 102.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.10.2005 17.5N 102.7W MODERATE 12UTC 06.10.2005 19.1N 104.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2005 20.3N 106.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 07.10.2005 21.7N 107.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 08.10.2005 22.5N 109.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 08.10.2005 24.2N 111.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 09.10.2005 22.1N 112.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.10.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN ANALYSED POSITION : 19.8N 89.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.10.2005 19.8N 89.4W WEAK 12UTC 03.10.2005 20.4N 91.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2005 19.7N 92.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 04.10.2005 19.7N 94.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2005 19.8N 96.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.10.2005 19.5N 97.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.10.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 26.0N 88.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.10.2005 26.0N 88.1W WEAK 12UTC 06.10.2005 26.4N 90.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2005 25.5N 91.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2005 25.3N 92.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2005 23.1N 94.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2005 21.3N 92.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2005 20.6N 90.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK ** WTIN20 DEMS 030630 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 03-10-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTH,WEST AND SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 22.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTJP23 RJTD 030600 *** WARNING 030600. WARNING VALID 040600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 1000 HPA AT 26.0N 115.5E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 27.4N 113.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1008 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 030600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 030600UTC 26.0N 115.5E FAIR MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 040600UTC 27.4N 113.1E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ32 RJTD 030600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.20 FOR TS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 030600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TD WITHIN 12 HOURS. TS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY LANDED AND WILL CONTINUO USLY STAY ON LAND FI-NUMBER WILL BE 1.0 AFTER 24 HOURS. 5.REMARKS THIS IS FINAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING ON TS 0519 LONGWANG (0519).= ** WTIO31 PGTW 030900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z --- NEAR 22.2N 88.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 88.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 23.5N 88.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 030900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 88.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 20 NM SOUTH OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// ** WTPZ25 KNHC 030835 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005 0900Z MON OCT 03 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 112.8W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 50SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 112.8W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 112.6W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 24.7N 113.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 25.5N 113.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 26.4N 114.3W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 27.0N 114.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 27.6N 115.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 28.0N 117.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 112.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB $$ ** WTIO31 PGTW 030900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z --- NEAR 22.2N 88.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 88.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 23.5N 88.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 030900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 88.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 20 NM SOUTH OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// ** WTPZ35 KNHC 030855 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON OCT 03 2005 ...OTIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...STILL A TROPICAL STORM... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES... 140 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ... 11 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OR VERY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 2 AM PDT POSITION...24.0 N...112.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 AM PDT. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 030857 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005 0900Z MON OCT 03 2005 AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 91.5W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 91.5W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 91.0W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.5N 92.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.4N 94.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 95.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 96.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.5N 97.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 91.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 030900 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT MON OCT 03 2005 ...STAN REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF GULF COAST OF MEXICO... AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES... 615 KM... EAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 320 MILES... 510 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH... 17 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...20.5 N... 91.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 030901 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT MON OCT 03 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT THU OCT 6 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 20.4N 94.2W 48 X X X 48 MMFR 185N 926W 4 1 2 3 10 20.2N 95.2W 31 1 X X 32 MMMD 210N 897W 7 X 1 X 8 20.0N 96.3W 15 8 1 1 25 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 2 2 MMSO 238N 982W X X 5 7 12 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 5 5 MMTM 222N 979W X 6 7 5 18 GULF 27N 96W X X X 2 2 MMTX 210N 974W 1 14 4 3 22 GULF 25N 96W X X 2 6 8 MMVR 192N 961W 16 5 1 2 24 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1AM TUE TO 1PM TUE C FROM 1PM TUE TO 1AM WED D FROM 1AM WED TO 1AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 030902 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2005 THE CENTER OF STAN EMERGED OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT ABOUT 0430Z. SHORTLY THEREAFTER AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FLEW INTO THE CENTER AND MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB... THEN 1002 MB ON A MORE RECENT PENETRATION. MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 43 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER... IN THE BAND OF CONVECTION EMANATING OFFSHORE FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO MIX THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE USING THE 80 PERCENT REDUCTION...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 35 KT AT THE SURFACE. ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN BURSTING NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD SOON BE OCCURRING THERE. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT... MAKING STAN A TROPICAL STORM ONCE AGAIN. THE AIRCRAFT LOCATED THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION... AND THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS NOW WESTWARD... 270/9. A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER STAN TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WITH AN EVENTUAL SLIGHT BEND SOUTH OF WEST AND A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT ENOUGH RIDGING WILL PERSIST TO TAKE STAN ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HOWEVER... IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME COMPLICATING FACTORS... INCLUDING INTERACTION WITH HIGH TERRAIN AS STAN APPROACHES THE COAST... A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... AND LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... COULD CAUSE A SLOWER MOTION THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. STAN IS NOW OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... AND IS BENEATH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AS DEPICTED IN GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO STRENGTHENING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO DIVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 48 HOURS AND ERODE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...BUT THE SHEAR WILL PROBABLY NOT INCREASE IN TIME TO WEAKEN STAN BEFORE FINAL LANDFALL. ACCORDINGLY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DIAGNOSES WEAK SHEAR AND FORECASTS A 65 KT HURRICANE APPROACHING THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO SHIPS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE NEW FORECAST REQUIRES A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 20.5N 91.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 92.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 20.4N 94.2W 50 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 20.2N 95.2W 60 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 20.0N 96.3W 70 KT 72HR VT 06/0600Z 19.5N 97.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 030905 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005 0900Z MON OCT 03 2005 ...CORRECTED TO ADD 34 KT RADII AT ADVISORY TIME... AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 91.5W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 91.5W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 91.0W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.5N 92.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.4N 94.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 95.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 96.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.5N 97.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 91.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 030908 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON OCT 03 2005 EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND A 0126Z QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY SOLUTION INDICATE THAT OTIS REMAINS SHEARED ABOUT 45 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE 35 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN OTIS TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS...WITH DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 330/6. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITHIN THE LOW/MID-LAYER STEERING FLOW OF A RIDGE EXTENDING OVER MEXICO. AFTERWARD...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A NARROW LOW/MID- LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA CAUSING OTIS TO DRIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AND THE SHALLOW GFS BETA ADVECTION MODEL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...KEEPING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OFFSHORE...PARALLELING THE COAST...THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE 34 KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 24.0N 112.8W 35 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 24.7N 113.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 25.5N 113.7W 25 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 26.4N 114.3W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 05/0600Z 27.0N 114.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 06/0600Z 27.6N 115.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 07/0600Z 28.0N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 030918 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL STAN ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT LUNES 3 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...STAN VUELVE A OBTENER INTENSIDAD DE TORMENTA TROPICAL... ...SE EMITIERON VIGILANCIAS DE HURACAN PARA PARTES DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO... A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900Z...EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA UNA PARTE DE LA COSTA DEL GLOFO DE MEXICO DESDE CABO ROJO HACIA EL SUR HASTA PUNTA EL LAGARTO. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL STAN ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 91.5 OESTE O COMO A 385 MILLAS...615 KM...AL ESTE DE TUXPAN MEXICO Y COMO A 320 MILLAS...510 KM...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE VERACRUZ MEXICO. STAN SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH... 17 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS CON UNA LEVE DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH... 65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1002 MILIBARAS...29.59 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE STAN PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS TOTALES DE CERCA DE 15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 AM CDT...20.5 NORTE... 91.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1002 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 031000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (OTIS) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z --- NEAR 23.7N 112.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.7N 112.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 24.7N 113.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 25.5N 113.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 26.4N 114.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 27.0N 114.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 27.6N 115.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 28.0N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 031000Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 112.8W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031600Z, 032200Z, 040400Z AND 041000Z.// ** WTPQ22 RJTD 030900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 030900UTC 26.0N 115.3E FAIR MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 040900UTC 27.4N 112.9E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPZ35 KNHC 031135 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM PDT MON OCT 03 2005 ...OTIS BARELY A TROPICAL STORM... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 85 KM... SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OR VERY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 5 AM PDT POSITION...24.4 N...112.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM PDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 031152 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM STAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT MON OCT 03 2005 ...STAN ORGANIZING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST OR ABOUT 355 MILES... 570 KM... EAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO. STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH... 17 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT STAN IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...20.4 N... 91.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$