** WTSR20 WSSS 021800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 022300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 022300 UTC 00HR 25.0N 116.8E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 030000 UTC 00HR 25.1N 116.8E 1000HPA 15M/S= P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTJP23 RJTD 030000 *** WARNING 030000. WARNING VALID 040000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 996 HPA AT 25.5N 116.7E SOUTH CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 26.2N 114.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 030000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 030000UTC 25.5N 116.7E FAIR MOVE NW 12KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 040000UTC 26.2N 114.5E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ32 RJTD 030000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.19 FOR TS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 030000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TD WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY LANDED AND WILL CONTINUO USLY STAY ON LAND FI-NUMBER WILL BE 1.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 030000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8 NAME TS 0519 LONGWANG ANALYSIS POSITION 030000UTC 25.3N 116.7E MOVEMENT WNW 12KT PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 031200UTC 25.8N 115.7E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 030100 UTC 00HR 25.2N 116.6E 1000HPA 15M/S= P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTNT45 KNHC 030240 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005 STAN HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETED ITS TRANSIT OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT...FOR NOW... THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED TO JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. NONETHELESS...THE SYSTEM RETAINS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES. A PROMINENT UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE IS SITUATED OVER STAN...AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ONCE THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST 30 DEG C...STRENGTHENING IS HIGHLY LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 285/9. THE FLOW SOUTH OF A MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THIS WOULD TAKE THE CENTER NEAR OR ACROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS. THERE IS...HOWEVER...A POTENTIAL COMPLICATION TO THE TRACK FORECAST. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID- TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WITHIN ROUGHLY 72 HOURS. THIS DEVELOPMENT COULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE SOON ENOUGH TO INFLUENCE STAN'S TRACK...AND DELAY ITS LANDFALL. THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ALSO TAKE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SLOWER OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF THAN THE EARLIER RUNS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT FASTER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. HOPEFULLY...AN ADDITIONAL SLOWING OF THIS FORECAST WILL NOT BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 20.8N 90.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 21.0N 91.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 21.0N 93.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 20.7N 94.7W 55 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 20.4N 95.8W 65 KT 72HR VT 06/0000Z 20.0N 97.0W 55 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 07/0000Z 19.5N 98.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATED 120HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 030241 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005 0300Z MON OCT 03 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 90.3W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 90.3W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 89.8W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.0N 91.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.0N 93.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.7N 94.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.4N 95.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 25SE 25SW 45NW. 34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.0N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 25SE 0SW 45NW. 34 KT...125NE 50SE 25SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 19.5N 98.0W...INLAND...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 90.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 030241 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005 THE REMAINING CONVECTION IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE EXPOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...WITH THE LOS CABOS MEXICO RADAR DEPICTING INFREQUENT WEAK RAINBANDS MOVING OVER THE COAST OF BAJA JUST SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS ARE DECREASING...30 TO 35 KT...BUT THE CI REMAINS AT 45 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY AS A COMPROMISE. THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AGREE ON DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS...BEFORE REACHING THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT...HOWEVER RETAINS THE SYSTEM AS A 20 KT REMNANT LOW MOVING ONSHORE IN 48 HOURS...AND DISSIPATES IT OVER THE PENINSULA IN 96 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 340/5. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NOGAPS...THE GFDL...AND THE UKMET...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW SUGGEST A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT COMMENCING AROUND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD...AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH LIFTS OUT AND THE LOW/MID- LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO WOULD KEEP OTIS AWAY FROM THE COAST UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED THREE MODEL CLUSTER...INDICATING A WEAK LOW MOVING ONSHORE IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 23.4N 112.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 24.1N 112.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 25.0N 113.3W 25 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 25.9N 113.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 05/0000Z 26.9N 113.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 06/0000Z 28.4N 113.8W 20 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 030241 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT WED OCT 5 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 21.0N 93.3W 45 X X X 45 MMFR 185N 926W 5 1 3 3 12 20.7N 94.7W 27 2 1 X 30 MMMD 210N 897W 99 X X X 99 20.4N 95.8W 12 11 1 2 26 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 2 2 MMSO 238N 982W X 1 5 7 13 BROWNSVILLE TX X X 1 5 6 MMTM 222N 979W X 6 8 4 18 GULF 28N 95W X X X 2 2 MMTX 210N 974W X 14 4 3 21 GULF 27N 96W X X X 3 3 MMVR 192N 961W 5 10 3 2 20 GULF 25N 96W X X 3 6 9 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM MON TO 7AM TUE C FROM 7AM TUE TO 7PM TUE D FROM 7PM TUE TO 7PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 030242 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005 ...STAN WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...BUT LIKELY TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING AGAIN SOON... AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...85 KM...SOUTHWEST OF PROGRESO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR...AND A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN SQUALLS OVER WATER WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. STAN IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...20.8 N... 90.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ35 KNHC 030243 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005 ...OTIS CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD JUST TO THE WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL OTHER COASTAL WARNINGS AND WATCHES. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES... 260 KM... WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 95 MILES... 155 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH ...9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OR VERY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY OR MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. REPEATING THE 8 PM PDT POSITION...23.4 N...112.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 AM PDT. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 030250 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005 0300Z MON OCT 03 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL OTHER COASTAL WARNINGS AND WATCHES. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 112.4W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 112.4W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 112.3W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 24.1N 112.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 25.0N 113.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 25.9N 113.6W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 26.9N 113.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 28.4N 113.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 112.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 030200 UTC 00HR 25.3N 116.4E 1000HPA 15M/S= P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPN31 PHNC 030400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (OTIS) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 23.2N 112.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.2N 112.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 24.1N 112.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 25.0N 113.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 25.9N 113.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 26.9N 113.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 28.4N 113.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031000Z, 031600Z, 032200Z AND 040400Z.// ** WTPQ22 RJTD 030300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 030300UTC 25.7N 116.1E FAIR MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 040300UTC 26.6N 113.6E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =