** WTPQ20 BABJ 021700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 021700 UTC 00HR 24.5N 117.9E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 350KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 021800 UTC 00HR 24.6N 117.7E 988HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 26.0N 114.8E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 021800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 021800UTC 24.8N 117.8E GOOD MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 031800UTC 26.0N 115.5E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP23 RJTD 021800 *** WARNING 021800. WARNING VALID 031800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0519 LONGWANG (0519) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL S TORM 990 HPA AT 24.8N 117.8E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 26.0N 115.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 021800 UTC 00HR 24.6N 117.7E 988HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 26.0N 114.8E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTPQ32 RJTD 021800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.17 FOR TS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL(TYPHOON MODEL) ON TS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) AT 12 UTC IS VALID TILL 18 HOURS.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 021800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 021800UTC 24.8N 117.8E GOOD MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 031800UTC 26.0N 115.5E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP23 RJTD 021800 *** WARNING 021800. WARNING VALID 031800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0519 LONGWANG (0519) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL S TORM 990 HPA AT 24.8N 117.8E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 26.0N 115.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 021800 UTC 00HR 24.6N 117.7E 988HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 26.0N 114.8E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTPN33 PGTW 022100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 029 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 24.9N 117.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 24.9N 117.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 25.6N 116.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 022100Z POSITION NEAR 25.1N 117.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED OVER CHINA APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// ** WTIO31 PGTW 022100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 20.7N 87.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 87.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 21.7N 87.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 22.7N 88.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 23.8N 88.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 022100Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 87.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z AND 032100Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 021945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 021800 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LONGWANG (0519) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (24.6 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (117.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 021945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 021800 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LONGWANG (0519) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (24.6 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (117.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTIO31 PGTW 022000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 20.7N 87.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 87.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 21.7N 87.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 22.7N 88.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 23.8N 88.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 022100Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 87.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z AND 032100Z.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 022000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 029 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 24.9N 117.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 24.9N 117.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 25.6N 116.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 022100Z POSITION NEAR 25.1N 117.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED OVER CHINA APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 021900 UTC 00HR 24.6N 117.5E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTNT25 KNHC 022029 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005 2100Z SUN OCT 02 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 89.4W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......105NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 89.4W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 88.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 21.1N 90.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...105NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.3N 93.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...105NE 75SE 75SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.1N 94.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...105NE 75SE 75SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.0N 96.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 25SE 25SW 45NW. 34 KT...105NE 75SE 75SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.5N 98.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...105NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 89.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 022030 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT WED OCT 5 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 21.3N 93.0W 44 X X X 44 MMFR 185N 926W 3 2 1 2 8 21.1N 94.9W 21 9 1 X 31 MMMD 210N 897W 99 X X X 99 21.0N 96.1W 5 19 1 1 26 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 2 2 MMSO 238N 982W X 2 7 5 14 BROWNSVILLE TX X X 1 6 7 MMTM 222N 979W X 11 6 3 20 GULF 27N 96W X X X 3 3 MMTX 210N 974W 1 15 3 3 22 GULF 25N 96W X 1 3 6 10 MMVR 192N 961W 2 8 3 3 16 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1PM MON TO 1AM TUE C FROM 1AM TUE TO 1PM TUE D FROM 1PM TUE TO 1PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 022031 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005 ...STAN CONTINUES TO CROSS THE YUCATAN... AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 85 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO. STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...AND A TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN A FEW SQUALLS OVER WATER WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. STAN COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER TONIGHT. ONCE IT REACHES THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...STAN IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES ...195 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND FAR WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...20.7 N... 89.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 022032 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10...A BIT FASTER THAN BEFORE. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. AS A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES LIFTS OUT... RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY BEND THE TRACK OF STAN TO THE LEFT AND TAKE IT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS STAN APPROACHES THE MEXICAN COAST... THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE MOTION COULD SLOW AS STAN NEARS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT WITH THIS SLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD DECOUPLE FROM THE CIRCULATION ALOFT NEAR LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND UKMET GUIDANCE. THERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL SHIP REPORTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TO BE SAFE I WILL PRESUME THAT SUCH WINDS STILL EXIST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER...WHERE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN...HENCE THE LOWERING OF THE WARNINGS. ONCE IN THE GULF...STAN SHOULD HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN... WITH WARM WATERS...LIGHT SHEAR...AND UPPER ANTICYCLONIC SUPPORT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 20.7N 89.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 21.1N 90.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 21.3N 93.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 04/0600Z 21.1N 94.9W 55 KT 48HR VT 04/1800Z 21.0N 96.1W 65 KT 72HR VT 05/1800Z 20.5N 98.0W 45 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 022033 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005 2100Z SUN OCT 02 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL OTHER COASTAL WARNINGS AND WATCHES. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 112.3W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 112.3W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 112.2W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.7N 112.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 24.8N 113.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 26.0N 114.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.5N 114.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.5N 114.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 29.0N 114.0W...DISSIPATED MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 112.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPZ35 KNHC 022033 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005 ...OTIS PARALLELING THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL OTHER COASTAL WARNINGS AND WATCHES. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES... 245 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 125 MILES... 200 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. OTIS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OR VERY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY OR MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...23.0 N...112.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 PM PDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 022035 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005 THE WEAKENING TREND HAS CONTINUED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION AND IS NOT VERY DEEP. T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. OTIS IS ALREADY BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WITH DRY AIR TO ITS WEST...AND COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE RATE INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. OTIS HAS NOT BEEN MOVING VERY MUCH DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO...BUT IT NOW APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 6 KT. THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING SHALLOW...AND WILL PROBABLY BE STEERED VERY SLOWLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A VERY SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY MOTION...ON A TRACK PARALLELING THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SINCE OTIS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA REMAINS UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 23.0N 112.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 23.7N 112.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 24.8N 113.2W 30 KT 36HR VT 04/0600Z 26.0N 114.0W 25 KT 48HR VT 04/1800Z 27.5N 114.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 05/1800Z 28.5N 114.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 06/1800Z 29.0N 114.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 022200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (OTIS) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 22.7N 112.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 112.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 23.7N 112.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 24.8N 113.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 26.0N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 27.5N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 28.5N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 29.0N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031000Z, 031600Z, 032200Z AND 040400Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 022100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 022100 UTC 00HR 24.8N 117.2E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 022000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 022000 UTC 00HR 24.6N 117.3E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 022100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 022100UTC 25.3N 117.4E FAIR MOVE NW 11KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 032100UTC 26.1N 115.2E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ32 RJTD 021800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.18 FOR TS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL(TYPHOON MODEL) ON TS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) AT 18 UTC IS VALID TILL 18 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 022200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 022200 UTC 00HR 24.9N 117.0E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 022245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LONGWANG (0519) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS. AT 022100 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (24.8 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (117.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TROPICAL STORM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE HONG KONG AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 032100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 022245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LONGWANG (0519) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS. AT 022100 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (24.8 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (117.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TROPICAL STORM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE HONG KONG AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 032100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPZ35 KNHC 022351 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005 ...OTIS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...OUTER RAINBANDS MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWEST BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES...240 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 120 MILES... 190 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ...8 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OR VERY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY OR MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. REPEATING THE 5 PM PDT POSITION...23.2 N...112.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM PDT. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH $$ ** WTPZ35 KNHC 022351 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005 ...OTIS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...OUTER RAINBANDS MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWEST BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES...240 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 120 MILES... 190 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ...8 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OR VERY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY OR MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. REPEATING THE 5 PM PDT POSITION...23.2 N...112.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM PDT. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH $$