** WTSR20 WSSS 020600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ35 KNHC 021207 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A...CORRECTION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005 ...CORRECTION TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... ...OTIS WEAKENS TO TROPICAL STORM... AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HTROPICAL STORM OTIS OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 165 MILES... 265 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR...AND A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. REPEATING THE 5 AM PDT POSITION...22.5 N...111.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM PDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 021200 UTC 00HR 24.4N 118.8E 965HPA 38M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 021200 UTC 00HR 24.4N 118.8E 965HPA 38M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 26.0N 115.6E 995HPA 20M/S P+48HR 27.0N 112.2E 1005HPA 12M/S= ** WTJP23 RJTD 021200 *** WARNING 021200. WARNING VALID 031200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 985 HPA AT 24.4N 118.7E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 25.8N 116.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 021200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 021200UTC 24.4N 118.7E GOOD MOVE W 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 031200UTC 25.8N 116.1E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 021300 UTC 00HR 24.5N 118.6E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTPN33 PGTW 021500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 028 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z --- NEAR 24.4N 118.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 24.4N 118.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 25.1N 117.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 25.9N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 021500Z POSITION NEAR 24.6N 118.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 021345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 021200 UTC, TYPHOON LONGWANG (0519) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (24.3 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (118.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031200 UTC TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (24.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (115.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 021345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 021200 UTC, TYPHOON LONGWANG (0519) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (24.3 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (118.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031200 UTC TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (24.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (115.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT34 KNHC 021422 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2005 ...DEPRESSION DISSIPATING... SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN IS DISSPATING OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 35.7 WEST OR ABOUT 780 MILES...1250 KM... WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR. THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...17.0 N... 35.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 021422 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192005 1500Z SUN OCT 02 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 35.7W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 35.7W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 35.3W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.2N 37.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.0N 38.9W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 35.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 021423 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005 THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF AN ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL WELL TO THE WEST OF DECAYING CONVECTION. WITH AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND VERY DRY AIR...THERE SEEMS LITTLE CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL RECOVER...AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY UNLESS AN UNEXPECTED REGENERATION OCCURS. NOW A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WITH THE LOW LAYER FLOW...AT 315/11. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE REMNANT LOW DISSIPATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE GFS HAD BEEN ALONE IN FORECASTING THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF A DECAYING SYSTEM AND AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO HAVE GOTTEN IT RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO FOLLOW THE GFS AND SHALLOW BAM GUIDANCE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 17.0N 35.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 03/0000Z 18.2N 37.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 38.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 021423 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST WED OCT 5 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 20.0N 38.9W 57 X X X 57 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON C FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE D FROM 8AM TUE TO 8AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 021430 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005 ...STAN MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 75 KM... SOUTHWEST OF TULUM MEXICO AND ABOUT 145 MILES... 235 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO. STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STAN WILL BE MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR MOST OF TODAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...BUT REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES ...195 KM FROM THE CENTER...IN RAINBANDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...19.8 N... 88.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 021430 CCA *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DIECINUEVE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT DOMINGO 2 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...DEPRESION DISIPANOSE... LAS IMAGENS DEL SATELITE INDICAN QUE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIECINUEVE SE ESTA DISIPANDO SOBRE EL CENTRO DEL ATLANTICO... A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIECINUEVE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.0 NORTE... LONGITUD 35.7 OESTE O COMO A 780 MILLAS...1250 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KILOMETROS POR HORA. LOS REMANENTES DE LA DEPRESION DEBEN CONTINUAR EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH... 45 KILOMETROS POR HORA. LOS VIENTOS ASOCIADOS CON LOS REMANENTES DE LA DEPRESION CONTINUARAN DISMINUYENDON GRADUALMENTE. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MB...29.80 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...17.0 NORTE... 35.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO... AL NOROESTE CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 30 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1009 MB. ESTA SERA LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA EMITIDO SOBRE ESTE SISTEMA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTPZ35 KNHC 021431 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005 ...OTIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED NORTHWARD THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST TO LORETO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO LORETO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULAGE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES... 185 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 130 MILES... 210 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OR VERY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES ...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. REPEATING THE 8 AM PDT POSITION...23.0 N...111.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 PM PDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 021431 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005 1500Z SUN OCT 02 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 88.1W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......105NE 105SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 105SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 88.1W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 87.7W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.2N 89.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.8N 91.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.0N 93.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...105NE 75SE 75SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.7N 95.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...105NE 75SE 75SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.5N 97.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 25SE 25SW 45NW. 34 KT...105NE 75SE 75SW 105NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 20.0N 99.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 88.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 021432 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT WED OCT 5 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 20.8N 91.4W 43 X X X 43 MMFR 185N 926W 8 4 X 2 14 21.0N 93.5W 16 14 1 X 31 MMMD 210N 897W 55 X X X 55 20.7N 95.2W 1 20 2 1 24 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 2 2 MMCZ 205N 869W 74 X X X 74 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 6 6 MMSO 238N 982W X X 5 7 12 GULF 28N 95W X X X 2 2 MMTM 222N 979W X 2 11 4 17 GULF 27N 96W X X X 3 3 MMTX 210N 974W X 6 10 4 20 GULF 25N 96W X X 3 6 9 MMVR 192N 961W X 6 7 4 17 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7AM MON TO 7PM MON C FROM 7PM MON TO 7AM TUE D FROM 7AM TUE TO 7AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 021432 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005 1500Z SUN OCT 02 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED NORTHWARD THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST TO LORETO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO LORETO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULAGE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 111.7W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 111.7W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 111.7W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 23.7N 112.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 25.0N 112.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 26.5N 113.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 28.5N 113.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 30.0N 112.9W MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 32.0N 113.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 111.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 021434 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR FROM LO CABOS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED AND IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION WHICH IN FACT HAS BECOME LIMITED. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AS INDICATED BY SHIPS MODEL...AND OTIS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND AND WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 5 DAYS. OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 23.0N 111.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 23.7N 112.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 25.0N 112.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 04/0000Z 26.5N 113.0W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 04/1200Z 28.5N 113.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 05/1200Z 30.0N 112.9W 20 KT 96HR VT 06/1200Z 32.0N 113.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 021400 UTC 00HR 24.5N 118.4E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTPN33 PGTW 021500 RRB *** VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 25.9N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 021500Z POSITION NEAR 24.6N 118.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 021500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 028 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z --- NEAR 24.4N 118.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 24.4N 118.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 25.1N 117.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 25.9N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 021500Z POSITION NEAR 24.6N 118.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 021500 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 028 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z --- NEAR 24.4N 118.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 24.4N 118.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 25.1N 117.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND ** WTNT45 KNHC 021456 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005 SHIP REPORTS FROM EIJV AND ZCAM4 JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN...AS WELL AS A QUIKSCAT PASS...INDICATE THAT EVEN THOUGH STAN IS MOVING INLAND IT IS MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN BANDS STILL OFFSHORE. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THESE DATA. ALTHOUGH STAN COULD MAINTAIN THESE WINDS DURING ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND...OFFSHORE FLOW MAKES IT UNLIKELY THAT THESE WINDS WOULD BE FELT ALONG THE NORTH AND WEST COASTS OF THE YUCATAN. FOR THIS REASON THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOT BEING UPGRADED TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION IS HARD TO GAUGE BUT BELIEVED TO BE 290/6. AS A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES LIFTS OUT...RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY BEND THE TRACK OF STAN TO THE LEFT AND TAKE IT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS STAN APPROACHES THE MEXICAN COAST...HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE MOTION COULD SLOW...BOTH BECAUSE IT WOULD BE NEARING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND BECAUSE OF A POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH A DISTUBANCE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. ONCE IN THE GULF...STAN SHOULD HAVE A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN...WITH WARM WATERS...LIGHT SHEAR...AND UPPER ANTICYCLONIC SUPPORT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE DECAY SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 19.8N 88.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 20.2N 89.3W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 03/1200Z 20.8N 91.4W 40 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 04/0000Z 21.0N 93.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 04/1200Z 20.7N 95.2W 60 KT 72HR VT 05/1200Z 20.5N 97.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 06/1200Z 20.0N 99.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 021600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (OTIS) WARNING NR 018 DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 15E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z --- NEAR 22.7N 111.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 111.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 23.7N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 25.0N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 26.5N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 28.5N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 30.0N 112.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 32.0N 113.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022200Z, 030400Z, 031000Z AND 031600Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 021500 UTC 00HR 24.5N 118.3E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 021500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) DOWNGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 021500UTC 24.5N 118.3E GOOD MOVE W 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 031500UTC 26.0N 115.8E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 021600 UTC 00HR 24.4N 118.1E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 021645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TYPHOON LONGWANG (0519) HAS WEAKENED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS. AT 021500 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (24.5 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (118.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031500 UTC TWO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (25.2 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 021645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TYPHOON LONGWANG (0519) HAS WEAKENED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS. AT 021500 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (24.5 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (118.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031500 UTC TWO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (25.2 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPZ35 KNHC 021734 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005 ...OTIS BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO LORETO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULAGE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT OTIS IS LOCATED FATHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. AT 11 AM PDT... 1800Z... THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES ...210 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 140 MILES...230 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. OTIS HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR LATER TODAY. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OR VERY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO INDICATE THAT OTIS HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR ...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES ...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. REPEATING THE 11 AM PDT POSITION...22.7 N...112.2 W. MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM PDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 021740 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.10.2005 TROPICAL STORM OTIS ANALYSED POSITION : 22.6N 111.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2005 22.6N 111.9W MODERATE 00UTC 03.10.2005 23.4N 111.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 03.10.2005 24.0N 111.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 04.10.2005 24.8N 110.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 35.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2005 16.9N 35.6W WEAK 00UTC 03.10.2005 17.5N 37.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2005 18.7N 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2005 20.0N 39.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2005 21.3N 39.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM STAN ANALYSED POSITION : 20.3N 87.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2005 20.3N 87.9W WEAK 00UTC 03.10.2005 20.2N 89.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2005 20.4N 91.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2005 20.3N 92.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2005 20.4N 94.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2005 20.8N 95.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+72 : 26.1N 86.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.10.2005 26.1N 86.4W WEAK 00UTC 06.10.2005 26.4N 87.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2005 26.5N 89.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2005 25.3N 90.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2005 24.9N 91.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2005 23.2N 91.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2005 22.9N 91.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 021740 ** WTNT35 KNHC 021743 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM STAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005 ...STAN MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...COASTAL WARNINGS LOWERED... AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES... 130 KM... SOUTHEAST OF MERIDA MEXICO. STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN A FEW SQUALLS OVER WATER WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. STAN COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER TONIGHT. STAN IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ONCE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES ...195 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...20.2 N... 88.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$