** WTNT35 KNHC 020600 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005 ...DEPRESSION VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... ...ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 70 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO AND ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR MOST OF TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES... WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS WESTERN CUBA. REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...19.5 N... 87.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 020600 UTC 00HR 23.9N 119.6E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 25.0N 116.0E 985HPA 27M/S P+48HR 26.0N 113.0E 1002HPA 14M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 021613 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 02-10-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTH,WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 23.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTCA45 TJSJ 020620 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTE ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 3A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT DOMINGO 2 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...DEPRESION MUY CERCA A CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL... ...CERCA DE TOCAR TIERRA EN LA COSTA ESTE DE YUCATAN... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE PUNTA GRUESA AL NORTE HASTA CABO CATOCHE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NOROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE EL OESTE DE CABO CATOCHE HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CAMPECHE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LA 1 AM CDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO AMPLIO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.3 OESTE O COMO A 40 MILLAS...70 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SURESTE DE TULUM MEXICO Y COMO A 55 MILLAS...90 KILOMETROS... AL SUR DE COZUMEL MEXICO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO ERRATICAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...9 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE CON ALGUN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA DEPRESION ESTARA TOCANDO TIERRA DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS HORAS Y SE MOVERA SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN POSIBLEMENTE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH... 55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LAS CONDICIONES APARENTAN SER FAVORABLES PARA FORTALECIMIENTO...Y LA DEPRESION PUDIERA DESARROLLARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL ANTES DE TOCAR TIERRA EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO LENTO DESPUES DE TOCAR TIERRA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1004 MILIBARAS...29.65 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA ENTRE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMOS DE 15 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL NORTE DE BELIZE. ACUMULACIONES ENTRE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN Y PORCIONES DEL OESTE DE CUBA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 1 AM CDT...19.5 NORTE...87.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1004 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ VAZQUEZ ** WTNT65 KNHC 020636 *** TCUAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 135 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM STAN FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... AT ABOUT 120 AM CDT... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY HAD INCREASED TO 45 MPH. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STAN... THE 18TH NAMED STORM OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. STAN IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ADDITIONAL DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTJP23 RJTD 020600 *** WARNING 020600. WARNING VALID 030600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 980 HPA AT 24.3N 119.8E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 25.4N 116.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 26.4N 114.4E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1008 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 020600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 020600UTC 24.3N 119.8E GOOD MOVE W 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 030600UTC 25.4N 116.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 040600UTC 26.4N 114.4E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTNT65 KNHC 020713 *** TCUAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005 AT 200 AM CDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CHETUMAL. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPQ32 RJTD 020600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.15 FOR STS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 020600 UTC IS GOOD. STS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TS WITHIN 12 HOURS. STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ32 RJTD 020600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.16 FOR STS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL(TYPHOON MODEL) ON STS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) AT 00 UTC IS VALID TILL 36 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 020700 UTC 00HR 24.0N 119.4E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 020745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020600 UTC, TYPHOON LONGWANG (0519) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (24.1 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (119.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (24.5 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (116.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040600 UTC TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (24.3 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (112.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 020745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020600 UTC, TYPHOON LONGWANG (0519) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (24.1 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (119.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (24.5 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (116.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040600 UTC TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (24.3 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (112.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPN33 PGTW 020900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 24.1N 119.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 24.1N 119.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 24.8N 117.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 25.5N 116.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 119.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.// ** WTIO31 PGTW 020900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 19.4N 86.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 86.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 20.1N 86.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 20.7N 87.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 21.5N 87.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 22.4N 87.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 86.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, AND HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z AND 030900Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 020600 *** TTT STORM WARNING 14 (FINAL) AT 0600 02 OCTOBER TROPICAL STORM (LONGWANG) (0519) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO FOUR POIUNT TWO NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE TWO TWO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 030600 TWO FIVE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS TROPICAL STORM PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 020800 UTC 00HR 24.0N 119.2E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTPH RPLL 020600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 14 (FINAL) AT 0600 02 OCTOBER, TYPHOON (LONGWANG) (0519) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 24.2N 119.8E FORECAST TO MOVE WNW AT 04MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE 220KMS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 28MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE 200KMS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 030600 25.0N 115.8E WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS TROPICAL STORM PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT25 KNHC 020836 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005 0900Z SUN OCT 02 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 87.5W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 87.5W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 87.2W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 20.1N 88.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.7N 90.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.0N 92.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.9N 94.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.5N 96.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 20.0N 97.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 87.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 020843 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192005 0900Z SUN OCT 02 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 34.8W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 34.8W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 34.3W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.2N 35.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.9N 36.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.5N 36.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.3N 36.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.5N 36.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 28.0N 34.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 29.0N 31.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 34.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 020843 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT WED OCT 5 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 18.9N 36.0W 40 X X X 40 22.3N 36.6W 2 12 3 2 19 20.5N 36.4W 20 4 1 X 25 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON C FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE D FROM 2AM TUE TO 2AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 020845 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005 0900Z SUN OCT 02 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 111.9W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 111.9W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 111.9W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 23.1N 112.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 24.3N 112.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 26.1N 112.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 27.8N 113.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 29.6N 113.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 32.0N 113.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 111.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB $$ ** WTPZ35 KNHC 020846 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR...AND A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.14 INCHES. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. REPEATING THE 2 AM PDT POSITION...22.3 N...111.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 AM PDT. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB $$ ** WTIO31 PGTW 020900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 19.4N 86.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 86.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 20.1N 86.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 20.7N 87.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 21.5N 87.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 22.4N 87.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 86.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, AND HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z AND 030900Z.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 020900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 24.1N 119.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 24.1N 119.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 24.8N 117.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS ** WTPN33 PGTW 020900 RRB *** --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 25.5N 116.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 119.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.// ** WTNT34 KNHC 020848 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005 ...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED OVER EASTERN ATLANTIC... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 34.8 WEST OR ABOUT 715 MILES...1155 KM... WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS COULD MAKE THE DEPRESSION A TROPICAL STORM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...16.0 N... 34.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPN33 PGTW 020900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 24.1N 119.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 24.1N 119.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 24.8N 117.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 25.5N 116.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 119.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.// ** WTNT35 KNHC 020854 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM STAN MAKING LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST... ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 40 MILES... 65 KM... SOUTH OF TULUM MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES... 120 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR... THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STAN WILL BE MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR MOST OF TODAY... BUT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHILE MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... BUT IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM SOON AFTER EMERGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165 KM... MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...19.6 N... 87.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 020854 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005 TWO RECENT SSM/I OVERPASSES AND A QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY SOLUTION CONFIRM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TILTED CORE STRUCTURE OF OTIS. APPARENTLY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS HAVING QUITE AN IMPACT ON THE SYSTEM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS DRIER AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AS WELL. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BANDING FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE T-NUMBERS HAVE DROPPED TO 65 KT FROM AFWA AND TAFB...AND 77 KT FROM SAB RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD WEAKEN OTIS TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 24 HOURS...FURTHER WEAKENING THE SYSTEM TO A DEPRESSION IN 72 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ALSO REFLECT THIS WEAKENING TREND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/3. OTIS REMAINS WITHIN A BREAK IN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS EITHER DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN 72 HOURS OR REFLECT A MERGE/ABSORPTION SCENARIO WITH A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST AS NOGAPS NOW INDICATES. BASED ON THE ECMWF...GFDN...AND GFS MODELS...OTIS COULD BECOME COMPLETELY SHEARED FROM THE MID- LEVEL CIRCULATION AND DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD...PARALELLING THE BAJA COAST AS A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR AN INITIAL DRIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...THEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST IN 36 HOURS. AFTERWARD...OTIS SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS A DEPRESSION...THEN DISSIPATE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO IN 96 HOURS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 22.3N 111.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 23.1N 112.2W 65 KT 24HR VT 03/0600Z 24.3N 112.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 03/1800Z 26.1N 112.9W 55 KT 48HR VT 04/0600Z 27.8N 113.0W 45 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 05/0600Z 29.6N 113.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 06/0600Z 32.0N 113.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 020901 CCA *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DIECINUEVE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT DOMINGO 2 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION PERMANECE POCO ORGANIZADA SOBRE EL ESTE DEL ATLANTICO... A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIECINUEVE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 34.8 OESTE O COMO A 715 MILLAS...1155 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KILOMETROS POR HORA Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH... 55 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...PERO UN AUMENTO LEVE EN LOS VIENTOS PUDIERA CONVERTIR LA DEPRESION EN TORMENTA TROPICAL. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MB...29.77 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...16.0 NORTE... 34.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO... AL NORTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1008 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ VAZQUEZ ** WTNT45 KNHC 020906 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY ATTAINED TROPICAL STORM STATUS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS BASED ON 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 50 KT WITHIN A BAND OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER... WHICH IS CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF WEAK WINDS. THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS CORRESPOND TO ABOUT 40 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FELL TO ABOUT 1003 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER IS NOW MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF TULUM... SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT... BUT STAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE SPENDING ALMOST THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER LAND. CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES A HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS... IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR INTERACTION WITH LAND IN THE SHORT TERM. STAN CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT... ALTHOUGH THIS IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN SPECIFYING THE EXACT CENTER OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... ONLY A LITTLE SLOWER LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO A LACK OF MODELS ACTUALLY SHOWING FINAL LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. THIS SOLUTION IS FOLLOWED FOR CONTINUITY AND SINCE THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS BEYOND 48 HOURS ARE SO DIVERSE. THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO FORCE STAN WESTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE BAY OF CAMPECHE. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 19.6N 87.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 20.1N 88.9W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 03/0600Z 20.7N 90.9W 35 KT 36HR VT 03/1800Z 21.0N 92.9W 45 KT 48HR VT 04/0600Z 20.9N 94.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 05/0600Z 20.5N 96.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 06/0600Z 20.0N 97.5W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 020912 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTE ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 4 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT DOMINGO 2 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...TORMENTA TROPICAL STAN ENTRANDO A TIERRA EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE CHETUMAL HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CABO CATOCHE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NOROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE EL OESTE DE CABO CATOCHE HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CAMPECHE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL STAN ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.5 OESTE AL ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN COMO A 40 MILLAS...65 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE TULUM MEXICO Y COMO A 75 MILLAS...120 KILOMETROS... AL SUR SUROESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. STAN SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...9 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE CON ALGUN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. STAN SE ESTARA MOVIENDO SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN HOY...PERO SE ESPERA QUE DISMINUYA SOBRE EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 45 MPH... 75 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA QUE STAN VUELVA A SER DEPRESION TROPICAL A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVA SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...PERO PUDIERA VOLVER A CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL LUEGO DE AFECTAR EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO TEMPRANO EL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS...PRINCIPALMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 AM CDT...19.6 NORTE...87.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1003 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ VAZQUEZ ** WTNT44 KNHC 020916 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005 THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AGAINST WESTERLY WIND SHEAR. SOME DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS TO THE EAST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER... BUT OVERALL THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN BOTH DEPTH AND COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z REMAINED 30 KT... AND THAT IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE SHIPS MODEL STILL FORECASTS 33 KT AT 24 AND 36 HOURS... AND THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BRIEFLY REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS... BUT PROBABLY JUST BARELY IF IT HAPPENS AT ALL. THE WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ONLY GET STRONGER AND THE SSTS GRADUALLY COOLER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK... ESPECIALLY BEYOND 36 HOURS... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/7. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR GFS AGREES ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 72 HOURS... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST BUT NOT VERY QUICKLY DUE TO LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO NUDGE CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 16.0N 34.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 17.2N 35.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 03/0600Z 18.9N 36.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 36.4W 35 KT 48HR VT 04/0600Z 22.3N 36.6W 30 KT 72HR VT 05/0600Z 25.5N 36.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 06/0600Z 28.0N 34.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 07/0600Z 29.0N 31.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 020900 UTC 00HR 24.1N 119.1E 965HPA 38M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 25.6N 115.8E 992HPA 20M/S P+48HR 26.5N 113.0E 1005HPA 12M/S= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 020900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 020900UTC 24.3N 119.3E GOOD MOVE W 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 030900UTC 25.7N 116.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 040600UTC 26.4N 114.4E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP33 RJTD 020900 *** WARNING 020900. WARNING VALID 030900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 980 HPA AT 24.3N 119.3E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030900UTC AT 25.7N 116.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN31 PHNC 021000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 15E (OTIS) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 22.2N 111.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 111.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 23.1N 112.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 24.3N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 26.1N 112.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 27.8N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 29.6N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 32.0N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 021000Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 112.0W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021600Z, 022200Z, 030400Z AND 031000Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 021000 UTC 00HR 24.2N 119.0E 965HPA 38M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTNT75 KNHC 021042 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT WED OCT 5 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 20.7N 90.9W 44 X X X 44 MMFR 185N 926W 6 4 1 2 13 21.0N 92.9W 17 13 1 X 31 MMMD 210N 897W 50 X X X 50 20.9N 94.5W 2 20 2 1 25 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 2 2 MMCZ 205N 869W 99 X X X 99 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 3 3 MZBZ 175N 883W 1 X X 1 2 BROWNSVILLE TX X X 1 6 7 MMSO 238N 982W X X 5 7 12 GULF 28N 93W X X X 2 2 MMTM 222N 979W X 1 9 6 16 GULF 28N 95W X X X 3 3 MMTX 210N 974W X 3 10 5 18 GULF 27N 96W X X X 5 5 MMVR 192N 961W X 4 7 5 16 GULF 25N 96W X X 4 7 11 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1AM MON TO 1PM MON C FROM 1PM MON TO 1AM TUE D FROM 1AM TUE TO 1AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTSS20 VHHH 021045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020900 UTC, TYPHOON LONGWANG (0519) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (24.1 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (119.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (24.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (115.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 021045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020900 UTC, TYPHOON LONGWANG (0519) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (24.1 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (119.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (24.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (115.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 021100 UTC 00HR 24.3N 118.9E 965HPA 38M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTNT35 KNHC 021145 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM STAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005 ...STAN BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST... ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 35 MILES... 60 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TULUM MEXICO. STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR... THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STAN WILL BE MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR MOST OF TODAY... BUT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHILE MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... BUT IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM SOON AFTER EMERGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165 KM... MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...19.7 N... 87.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ35 KNHC 021148 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005 ...OTIS WEAKENS TO TROPICAL STORM... AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. TROPICAL STOM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HTROPICAL STORM OTIS OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 165 MILES... 265 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR...AND A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. REPEATING THE 5 AM PDT POSITION...22.5 N...111.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM PDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$