** WTSR20 WSSS 011800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 020000 UTC 00HR 24.0N 120.6E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR W 25KM/H P+24HR 25.0N 116.5E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 26.0N 113.0E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP23 RJTD 020000 *** WARNING 020000. WARNING VALID 030000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 965 HPA AT 24.2N 120.8E TAIWAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 17 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 65 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 24.4N 119.0E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 24.9N 117.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 25.4N 114.9E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 020000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 020000UTC 24.2N 120.8E GOOD MOVE WNW 17KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 65NM 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 030000UTC 24.9N 117.1E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 040000UTC 25.4N 114.9E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPN33 PGTW 012100 RRB *** OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 25.0N 117.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 26.1N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 012100Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 121.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 012100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 23.5N 122.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 122.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 24.2N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 012100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 23.5N 122.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 122.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 24.2N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 25.0N 117.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 26.1N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 012100Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 121.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.// ** WTPQ32 RJTD 020000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 020000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO STS WITHIN 12 HOURS. TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 020000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7 NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG ANALYSIS POSITION 020000UTC 23.9N 120.6E MOVEMENT WNW 18KT PRES/VMAX 945HPA 84KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 021200UTC 24.6N 118.2E WITHIN 55NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 74KT 24HR POSITION 030000UTC 25.2N 116.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 36HR POSITION 031200UTC 25.4N 114.1E WITHIN 0NM PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 020100 UTC 00HR 24.1N 120.5E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR W 25KM/H= ** WTPN33 PGTW 020300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 23.9N 120.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 120.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 24.5N 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 25.2N 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 26.0N 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 020300Z POSITION NEAR 24.1N 120.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED OVER LAND APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 020145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020000 UTC, TYPHOON LONGWANG (0519) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (23.9 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (120.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030000 UTC TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (24.5 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (116.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040000 UTC TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (24.0 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (113.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 020145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020000 UTC, TYPHOON LONGWANG (0519) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (23.9 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (120.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030000 UTC TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (24.5 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (116.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040000 UTC TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (24.0 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (113.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPZ25 KNHC 020230 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005 0300Z SUN OCT 02 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 111.9W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 111.9W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 111.9W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 22.9N 112.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.2N 112.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 25.9N 112.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 27.5N 113.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 29.9N 113.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 32.0N 113.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 111.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 020230 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005 0300Z SUN OCT 02 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 111.9W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 111.9W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 111.9W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 22.9N 112.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.2N 112.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 25.9N 112.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 27.5N 113.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 29.9N 113.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 32.0N 113.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 111.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN $$ ** WTPN33 PGTW 020200 RRC *** MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 020300Z POSITION NEAR 24.1N 120.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED OVER LAND APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 020200 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 23.9N 120.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER ** WTPN33 PGTW 020200 RRB *** 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 120.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 24.5N 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 25.2N 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 26.0N 115.2E ** WTPZ25 KNHC 020230 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005 0300Z SUN OCT 02 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 111.9W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 111.9W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 111.9W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 22.9N 112.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.2N 112.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 25.9N 112.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 27.5N 113.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 29.9N 113.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 32.0N 113.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 111.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 020233 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005 0300Z SUN OCT 02 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 87.0W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 87.0W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 86.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.7N 88.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.3N 90.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.8N 92.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.0N 93.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.5N 96.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.0N 98.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 87.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPN33 PGTW 020200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 23.9N 120.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 120.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 24.5N 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 25.2N 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 26.0N 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 020300Z POSITION NEAR 24.1N 120.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED OVER LAND APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.// ** WTNT35 KNHC 020234 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005 ...CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 115 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO AND ABOUT 85 MILES... 135 KM...SOUTH OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE... SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY STILL OCCUR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES... WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS WESTERN CUBA. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...19.3 N... 87.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 020234 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 20.3N 90.2W 42 X X X 42 MMFR 185N 926W 6 6 1 1 14 20.8N 92.0W 18 10 1 X 29 MMMD 210N 897W 39 X X X 39 21.0N 93.8W 1 19 3 1 24 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 2 2 MMCZ 205N 869W 63 X X X 63 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 6 6 MZBZ 175N 883W 4 1 X X 5 GULF 28N 93W X X X 2 2 MMSO 238N 982W X X 3 8 11 GULF 28N 95W X X X 2 2 MMTM 222N 979W X X 8 7 15 GULF 27N 96W X X X 4 4 MMTX 210N 974W X 1 9 6 16 GULF 25N 96W X X 3 7 10 MMVR 192N 961W X 2 7 5 14 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM SUN TO 7AM MON C FROM 7AM MON TO 7PM MON D FROM 7PM MON TO 7PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 020235 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192005 0300Z SUN OCT 02 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 34.0W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 34.0W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 33.8W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.6N 34.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.2N 35.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.9N 36.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.0N 36.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 25.0N 36.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 27.5N 36.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 29.5N 34.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 34.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 020235 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005 ...POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST OR ABOUT 665 MILES...1075 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY INCREASE IN STRENGTH COULD MAKE THE DEPRESSION A TROPICAL STORM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...15.3 N... 34.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 020236 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 18.2N 35.3W 53 X X X 53 22.0N 36.4W 1 13 4 2 20 19.9N 36.0W 27 3 X 1 31 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON C FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON D FROM 8PM MON TO 8PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 020200 UTC 00HR 23.8N 120.2E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTNT35 KNHC 020234 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005 ...CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 115 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO AND ABOUT 85 MILES... 135 KM...SOUTH OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE... SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY STILL OCCUR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES... WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS WESTERN CUBA. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...19.3 N... 87.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 020234 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 20.3N 90.2W 42 X X X 42 MMFR 185N 926W 6 6 1 1 14 20.8N 92.0W 18 10 1 X 29 MMMD 210N 897W 39 X X X 39 21.0N 93.8W 1 19 3 1 24 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 2 2 MMCZ 205N 869W 63 X X X 63 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 6 6 MZBZ 175N 883W 4 1 X X 5 GULF 28N 93W X X X 2 2 MMSO 238N 982W X X 3 8 11 GULF 28N 95W X X X 2 2 MMTM 222N 979W X X 8 7 15 GULF 27N 96W X X X 4 4 MMTX 210N 974W X 1 9 6 16 GULF 25N 96W X X 3 7 10 MMVR 192N 961W X 2 7 5 14 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM SUN TO 7AM MON C FROM 7AM MON TO 7PM MON D FROM 7PM MON TO 7PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 020235 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192005 0300Z SUN OCT 02 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 34.0W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 34.0W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 33.8W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.6N 34.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.2N 35.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.9N 36.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.0N 36.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 25.0N 36.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 27.5N 36.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 29.5N 34.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 34.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 020235 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005 ...POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST OR ABOUT 665 MILES...1075 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY INCREASE IN STRENGTH COULD MAKE THE DEPRESSION A TROPICAL STORM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...15.3 N... 34.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 020200 UTC 00HR 23.8N 120.2E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTNT45 KNHC 020247 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY REMAINS BROAD THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN A POORLY CURVED BAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND IMPROVING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CENTER IS A LITTLE HARD TO FIND IN INFRARED IMAGERY...SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/5. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EVENING RAWINSONDE DATA SHOWS LOW/MID/LEVEL RIDGING NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH IN THE SHORT TERM SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK. AFTER 24-36 HR...A MID/ UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO TURN WESTWARD OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO THROUGH 72 HR. AFTER THAT...THINGS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN AS THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF FORECASTS OF HOW THE PATTERN AROUND THE DEPRESSION WILL EVOLVE. SOME MODELS STALL THE DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF...WHILE OTHERS MOVE IT INTO MEXICO. OTHERS DISSIPATE IT AS A NEW SYSTEM FORMS EAST OF THE DEPRESSION IN THE CARIBBEAN...OR NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION ALONG A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY OF MOVING THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MEXICO... ALBEIT AT A SLOWER SPEED THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HOWEVER...THE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN IS DECREASING. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR WHILE THE CYCLONE IS OVER WATER...AS VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BRIEFLY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON YUCATAN... FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER LAND AND RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EVEN WITH LAND INTERACTION...SHIPS CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HR AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFDL RUN DOES NOT STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE ABOVE 40 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THE CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO AFTER LANDFALL IN ABOUT 84 HR. SHOULD THAT LANDFALL NOT OCCUR OR BE DELAYED...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 19.3N 87.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 19.7N 88.2W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 03/0000Z 20.3N 90.2W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 03/1200Z 20.8N 92.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 04/0000Z 21.0N 93.8W 50 KT 72HR VT 05/0000Z 20.5N 96.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 06/0000Z 20.0N 98.5W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 020253 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005 THERE HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE TO THE EYE WALL STRUCTURE OF OTIS THIS EVENING. BOTH SHORTWAVE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT EAST-NORTHEAST TILT. UW-CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS INCHED ITS WAY JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE AXIS. THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO INDICATES MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL POSITION IS NUDGED WEST OF THE SATELLITE FIXES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TILT. A 0205Z SSM/I MICROWAVE OVERPASS SHOULD HELP TO CLARIFY THIS DELEMA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 75 KT BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF 65 AND 77 KT DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS...GFDL AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/3. OTIS REMAINS WITHIN A BREAK IN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IT APPEARS THAT THE MID-LEVEL HIGH TO THE WEST IS COUNTER BALANCING THE STEERING CURRENT OF THE RIDGE OVER MEXICO...CAUSING THIS SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH SLIGHT FORWARD SPEED DISPARITIES AFTER LANDFALL. THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET DEPICT A CONSIDERABLY WEAKER TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BEFORE REACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. THE GFS TRACKER LOSES THE WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE AND BEGINS TO TRACK A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW WEST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST IN 72 HOURS. THIS IS INDICATED BY A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS LIKELY ERRONEOUS SCENARIO AND THE UKMET/ECMWF DISSIPATION PROGNOSIS ARE DISCOUNTED IN THE FORECAST SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET...AND THE GFS BEYOND 72 HOURS. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS AS IT REACHES MAINLAND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 22.3N 111.9W 75 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 22.9N 112.2W 70 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 24.2N 112.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 03/1200Z 25.9N 112.9W 60 KT 48HR VT 04/0000Z 27.5N 113.1W 50 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 05/0000Z 29.9N 113.1W 30 KT 96HR VT 06/0000Z 32.0N 113.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPZ35 KNHC 020254 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005 ...OTIS DRIFTING NORTHWARD...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH ... 6 KM/HR...AND A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT OTIS COULD STILL REACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS A HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH OTIS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. REPEATING THE 8 PM PDT POSITION...22.3 N...111.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 AM PDT. FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 020400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 15E (OTIS) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 22.1N 111.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 111.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 22.9N 112.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 24.2N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 25.9N 112.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 27.5N 113.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 29.9N 113.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 32.0N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021000Z, 021600Z, 022200Z AND 030400Z.// ** WTNT44 KNHC 020305 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF WESTERLY SHEAR THIS EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTLY EXPOSED BETWEEN CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOW NO WINDS HIGHER THAN 25 KT THAT WERE NOT IN THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. BLENDING THESE DATA PRODUCES AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/6. A LARGE-DEEP LAYER LOW NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS... ALLOWING THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE WANTS TO TURN THE CYCLONE EASTWARD AFTER 72 HR EVEN THOUGH THE MODEL MASS FIELDS INDICATE RIDGING NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION. BASED ON THE RIDGING... THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A MUCH SLOWER NORTHEASTWARD TURN THAT THAT CURRENTLY CALLED FOR BY THE GUIDANCE. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL THE SYSTEM SURVIVE? ALL THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF 20N WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO BE IN EXCESS OF 40 KT AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BARELY 26C. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HR IN CASE SOME TEMPORARY DECREASE IN THE SHEAR OCCURS OR A STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST SPINS THE SYSTEM UP. IT THEN CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AS THE SHEAR INCREASES...BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 120 HR. IT IS POSSIBLE GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS THAT THE DEPRESSION MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AT ALL...AND DISSIPATE SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 15.3N 34.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 16.6N 34.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 18.2N 35.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 03/1200Z 19.9N 36.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 04/0000Z 22.0N 36.4W 30 KT 72HR VT 05/0000Z 25.0N 36.5W 25 KT 96HR VT 06/0000Z 27.5N 36.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 07/0000Z 29.5N 34.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 020307 CCA *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DIECINUEVE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 6 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT 1 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIECINUEVE MOVIENDOSE AL NORTE SOBRE EL ESTE DEL ATLANTICO... A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIECINUEVE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 34.0 OESTE O COMO A 665 MILLAS...1075 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...11 KILOMETROS POR HORA. UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE Y UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION SE ESPERA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH... 55 KILOMETROS POR HORA. LAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE MUESTRAN QUE LA DEPRESION ESTA POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA Y QUE LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE HAN TORNADO MENOS FAVORABLES PARA DESARROLLO. SE PRONOSTICAN POCOS CAMBIOS EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...CUALQUIER AUMENTO EN FORTALEZA PUEDE HACER LA DEPRESION UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MB...29.77 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...15.3 NORTE... 34.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO... AL NORTE CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1008 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE WFO SAN JUAN PM ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 020300 UTC 00HR 23.9N 120.0E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTCA45 TJSJ 020327 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SABADO 1 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTE ACERCANDOSE A LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE PUNTA GRUESA AL NORTE HASTA CABO CATOCHE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NOROESTE DE YUCATAN DESDE EL OESTE DE CABO CATOCHE HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CAMPECHE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ANTICIPADAS DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...EL AMPLIO CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.0 OESTE O COMO A 70 MILLAS AL SUR-SURESTE DE TULUM MEXICO Y COMO A 85 MILLAS AL SUR DE COZUMEL MEXICO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO ERRATICAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...9 KILOMETROS POR HORA. ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACCION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO DEBE TRAER EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO TEMPRANO EL DOMINGO EN LA MANANA. SIN EMBARGO...LA DEPRESION SE ENCUENTRA EN UNA ETAPA DE DESARROLLO...ASI QUE ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH... 55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LAS CONDICIONES APARENTAN ESTAR FAVORABLES PARA FORTALECIMIENTO...Y LA DEPRESION PUDIERA DESARROLLARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL ANTES DE TOCAR TIERRA. SE PRONOSTICA UN LENTO DEBILITAMIENTO DESPUES DE TOCAR TIERRA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1004 MILIBARAS...29.65 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA ENTRE 5 A 10 PULGADAS...CON TOTALES AISLADOS MAXIMOS DE 15 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL NORTE DE BELIZE. ACUMULACIONES ENTRE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN Y PORCIONES DEL OESTE DE CUBA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 PM CDT...19.3 NORTE...87.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1004 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCTOR CASTRO ** WTPH20 RPMM 020000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 13 AT 0000 02 OCTOBER TYPHOON LONGWANG 0519 WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO THREE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT SIX EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO TWO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE THREE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMI CIRCLE TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITION AT 030000 TWO FIVE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA=PD ** WTJP33 RJTD 020300 *** WARNING 020300. WARNING VALID 030300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 980 HPA AT 24.4N 119.9E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 18 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 24.4N 118.2E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030300UTC AT 25.0N 116.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 020300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 020300UTC 24.4N 119.9E GOOD MOVE WNW 18KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 030300UTC 25.0N 116.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 040000UTC 25.4N 114.9E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPH RPLL 020000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 13 AT 0000 02 OCTOBER, TYPHOON (LONGWANG) (0519) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 23.9N 120.6E FORECAST TO MOVE WNW AT 04MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE 220KMS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 45MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE 200KMS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 030000 25.7N 117.0E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 020400 UTC 00HR 23.9N 119.9E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 020445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020300 UTC, TYPHOON LONGWANG (0519) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (23.9 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (120.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (24.5 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (116.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (24.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 020445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020300 UTC, TYPHOON LONGWANG (0519) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (23.9 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (120.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (24.5 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (116.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (24.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 020500 UTC 00HR 23.9N 119.8E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTPN33 PGTW 020300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 23.9N 120.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER ** WTPN33 PGTW 020300 RRB *** 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 120.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 24.5N 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 25.2N 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 26.0N 115.2E ** WTPN33 PGTW 020300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 23.9N 120.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 120.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 24.5N 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 25.2N 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 26.0N 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 020300Z POSITION NEAR 24.1N 120.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED OVER LAND APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 020536 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.10.2005 HURRICANE OTIS ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 111.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2005 22.0N 111.9W STRONG 12UTC 02.10.2005 22.7N 111.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2005 23.1N 111.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 03.10.2005 25.2N 112.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 11.9N 92.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2005 11.9N 92.1W WEAK 12UTC 02.10.2005 12.7N 92.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2005 12.7N 93.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2005 12.9N 94.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2005 13.5N 95.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2005 13.9N 95.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 33.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2005 15.2N 33.6W WEAK 12UTC 02.10.2005 16.3N 34.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2005 17.9N 34.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2005 19.6N 35.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2005 21.3N 35.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2005 23.5N 35.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2005 25.6N 34.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 86.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2005 19.4N 86.1W WEAK 12UTC 02.10.2005 19.7N 87.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2005 19.8N 89.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2005 19.7N 92.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2005 19.5N 93.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2005 20.7N 94.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 05.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+72 : 17.9N 102.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.10.2005 17.9N 102.6W WEAK 12UTC 05.10.2005 18.9N 104.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2005 18.9N 105.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.10.2005 20.6N 106.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.10.2005 21.5N 106.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.10.2005 20.8N 108.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2005 21.3N 109.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+84 : 24.4N 85.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.10.2005 24.4N 85.0W 00UTC 06.10.2005 25.2N 86.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.10.2005 25.2N 87.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.10.2005 23.5N 88.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.10.2005 22.8N 88.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2005 21.9N 86.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 020536 ** WTPN33 PGTW 020300 RRC *** MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 020300Z POSITION NEAR 24.1N 120.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED OVER LAND APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.// ** WTPZ35 KNHC 020559 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005 ...OTIS WEAKENING...NORTHWARD DRIFT CONTINUES... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES... 225 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 180 MILES... 290 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. OTIS HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT OTIS COULD STILL REACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS A HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH OTIS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. REPEATING THE 11 PM PDT POSITION...22.2 N...112.0 W. MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM PDT. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB $$