** WTPQ20 BABJ 011800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 011800 UTC 00HR 23.4N 122.5E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011800 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 011800 UTC 00HR 23.4N 122.5E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 25KM/H P+24HR 24.4N 117.9E 955HPA 40M/S P+48HR 25.5N 114.0E 995HPA 20M/S= ** WTJP23 RJTD 011800 *** WARNING 011800. WARNING VALID 021800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 935 HPA AT 23.5N 122.5E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 85 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 24.0N 120.1E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 24.5N 117.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 25.0N 114.2E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 011800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 011800UTC 23.5N 122.5E GOOD MOVE W 14KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 85NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 021800UTC 24.5N 117.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 031800UTC 25.0N 114.2E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 011900 UTC 00HR 23.5N 122.3E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 25KM/H= ** WTPN33 PGTW 012100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 23.5N 122.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 122.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 24.2N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 25.0N 117.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 26.1N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 012100Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 121.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 012000 RRB *** OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 25.0N 117.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 26.1N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 012100Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 121.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 012000 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 23.5N 122.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 122.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 24.2N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 012000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 23.5N 122.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 122.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 24.2N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 25.0N 117.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 26.1N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 012100Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 121.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.// ** WTPQ20 VHHH 011945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 011800 UTC, TYPHOON LONGWANG (0519) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (23.4 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (122.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021800 UTC TWO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (24.6 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (117.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031800 UTC TWO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (24.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT25 KNHC 012026 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005 2100Z SAT OCT 01 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 86.5W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 86.5W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 86.2W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.8N 87.9W...INLAND EASTERN YUCATAN MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 20.4N 89.8W...INLAND WESTERN YUCATAN MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 21.0N 91.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.4N 93.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.6N 96.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 21.0N 99.0W...INLAND EASTERN MEXICO MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 86.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 012026 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 20.4N 89.8W 41 X X X 41 MMMD 210N 897W 36 1 X X 37 21.0N 91.8W 16 13 1 X 30 FREEPORT TX X X X 2 2 21.4N 93.6W 1 19 3 1 24 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 3 3 MMCZ 205N 869W 62 X X X 62 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 4 4 MZBZ 175N 883W 3 X 1 X 4 BROWNSVILLE TX X X 1 8 9 MMSO 238N 982W X X 4 9 13 GULF 28N 91W X X X 2 2 MMTM 222N 979W X X 8 7 15 GULF 28N 93W X X X 3 3 MMTX 210N 974W X 1 8 6 15 GULF 28N 95W X X X 3 3 MMVR 192N 961W X 1 5 6 12 GULF 27N 96W X X X 6 6 MMFR 185N 926W 3 6 2 2 13 GULF 25N 96W X X 4 8 12 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1PM SUN TO 1AM MON C FROM 1AM MON TO 1PM MON D FROM 1PM MON TO 1PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 012027 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192005 2100Z SAT OCT 01 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 34.2W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 34.2W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 34.0W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.0N 34.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.8N 35.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.5N 36.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.2N 37.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 24.2N 37.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 26.5N 37.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 29.0N 35.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 34.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 012028 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 17.8N 35.7W 52 X X X 52 21.2N 37.1W 2 15 2 2 21 19.5N 36.5W 22 7 X 1 30 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 012033 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005 ...DEPRESSION BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 34.2 WEST OR ABOUT 685 MILES...1105 KM... WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL... BUT IF IT REDEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... THEN SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BRIEFLY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...14.7 N... 34.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 012000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 012000 UTC 00HR 23.6N 122.0E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 25KM/H= ** WTPZ25 KNHC 012039 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005 2100Z SAT OCT 01 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 111.9W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 111.9W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 111.9W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 22.5N 112.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 23.6N 112.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 25.2N 113.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 26.9N 113.4W...INLAND BAJA CALIFORNIA MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 29.5N 113.5W...OVER GULF OF CALIFORNIA MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 31.5N 113.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND NW MEXICO MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 111.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ35 KNHC 012040 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005 ...OTIS WEAKENS SOME BUT RESUMES A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES... 230 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. OTIS IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A SLOW MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT OTIS COULD STILL REACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS A HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA SUNDAY AND MONDAY... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH OTIS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...22.0 N...111.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 PM PDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 012042 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES... 155 KM... SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO AND ABOUT 95 MILES... 150 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... BUT A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR... IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE... SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY OCCUR. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. DURING THE PAST HOUR... NOAA BUOY 42056 LOCATED NORTH OF THE CENTER BRIEFLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 34 MPH...54 KM/HR. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES... WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS WESTERN CUBA. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...19.2 N... 86.5 W. MOVEMENT DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 012048 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005 THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM... WITH ONLY A LIMITED AREA COLDER THAN -50C. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CI NUMBERS AT 18Z WERE ALL NEAR 5.0/90 KT BUT WITH T NUMBERS 4.0/65 KT. AN AMSU OVERPASS AT 1357Z YIELDED INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 73-76 KT FROM CIMSS AND CIRA... AND A SSMIS OVERPASS AT 1608Z REVEALS ONLY HALF OF AN EYEWALL REMAINING. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS... THE AMSU ESTIMATES... AND THE OVERALL DETERIORATING STRUCTURE... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 75 KT. SHIPS FORECASTS OTIS TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR ONLY ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO... WHILE THE GFDL DOES SO THROUGH 24 HOURS. THE EFFECTS OF OCEAN UPWELLING DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF THE HURRICANE COULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY RAPID DECLINE IN THE INTENSITY. ON THE OTHER HAND... IF OTIS GETS MOVING AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... IT COULD STILL HOLD ON TO HURRICANE INTENSITY UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THEREFORE... IT IS PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN THE HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALREADY IN PLACE. OTIS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER PASSING OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... AND AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR INCREASES. OTIS BECAME ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY DURING THE MORNING HOURS... BUT IT APPEARS TO HAVE RECENTLY RESUMED A SLOW MOTION... ABOUT 350/3. THE WEAK STEERING RESULTS FROM OTIS BEING CAUGHT BETWEEN A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THIS PATTERN WILL MOVE OTIS... BUT AT LEAST THEY AGREE ON THE GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STALL EARLIER TODAY AND TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS... BUT IS ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE SAME NORTHWARD PATH. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS AS IT REACHES MAINLAND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 22.0N 111.9W 75 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 22.5N 112.2W 65 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 23.6N 112.7W 60 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 25.2N 113.1W 60 KT 48HR VT 03/1800Z 26.9N 113.4W 50 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 04/1800Z 29.5N 113.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 05/1800Z 31.5N 113.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 120HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 012058 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005 AIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON FOUND A SMALL SURFACE CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF WHERE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE LARGER-SCALE CENTER OF ROTATION IS LOCATED. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 42056 ALSO INDICATE VEERING SURFACE WINDS... WHICH SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER SMALL-SCALE CIRCULATION MAY BE PASSING JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE BUOY. FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB SUGGEST THAT A BROADER CIRCULATION CENTER IS EITHER LOCATED OR FORMING NORTHEAST OF THE VORTEX MESSAGE POSITION. THE ADVISORY POSITION IS A COMPROMISE OF ALL THE SMALL SWIRLS AND LEANS MORE TOWARD THE LARGE-SCALE ROTATION NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. HOWEVER... ANY ONE OF THE SMALLER CIRCULATIONS COULD BECOME MORE DOMINANT IF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEARBY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A 31-KT SUSTAINED WIND REPORTED EARLIER BY NOAA BUOY 42056. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 255/05. THE VARIOUS GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE THE DEPRESSION VERY WELL... ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS. HOWEVER... THE GENERAL TREND IN ALL OF THE MODELS IS FOR THE BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO SLOWLY BUILD WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MORE WESTWARD AND SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION HAS RESULTED IN A SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE BAM MODELS... AND AS RESULT... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ALSO SHIFTED SOUTHWARD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER DEVELOPS. EXCLUDING LAND INTERACTION... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. THE SHIPS MODEL INCREASES THE INTENSITY TO 86 KT BY 72 HOURS AND 94 KT BY 96 HOURS DUE TO VERY WARM SSTS AND LOW VERTICAL SHEAR. THE 12Z GFDL MODEL LOSES THE CYCLONE BY 24 HOURS... WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR SYSTEMS THAT ARE INITIALIZED WITH 25 KT WINDS. THE 18Z GFDL WILL LIKELY BE MORE ROBUST SINCE IT WAS INITIALIZED WITH 30 KT SURFACE WINDS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 19.2N 86.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 19.8N 87.9W 35 KT...INLAND ERN YUCATAN 24HR VT 02/1800Z 20.4N 89.8W 25 KT...INLAND WRN YUCATAN 36HR VT 03/0600Z 21.0N 91.8W 35 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 03/1800Z 21.4N 93.6W 50 KT 72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.6N 96.2W 65 KT 96HR VT 05/1800Z 21.0N 99.0W 30 KT...INLAND ERN MEXICO 120HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 012112 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS ESSENTIALLY EVAPORATED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE LAST COUPLE OF IMAGES ARE SHOWING A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -70C HAS DEVELOPED VERY NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS REVEALED A LARGE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD THAT WILL LIKELY TAKE ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO TO SPIN DOWN... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT... ESPECIALLY SINCE DEEP CONVECTION MAY BE STARTING TO REFIRE NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/07. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. TD-19 IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS... AND THEN TURN SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD... ASSUMING THE SYSTEM SURVIVES THAT LONG AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GFDL MODEL IS THE FASTEST OF ALL OF THE MODELS AND RECURVES THE CYCLONE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AFTER 72 HOURS. HOWEVER... THE GFDL MAKES THE SYSTEM A VERTICALLY DEEP 80-KT HURRICANE BY 96 HOURS... DESPITE 40-50 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS... MINUS THE GFDL CONTRIBUTION AFTER 72 HOURS SINCE IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER 26-27C SSTS. BY 48 HOURS... UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST 25 KT AND TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KT BY 72 HOURS. THE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD CREATE AT LEAST SLOW WEAKENING... BUT THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 14.7N 34.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 16.0N 34.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 17.8N 35.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.5N 36.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 03/1800Z 21.2N 37.1W 35 KT 72HR VT 04/1800Z 24.2N 37.4W 30 KT 96HR VT 05/1800Z 26.5N 37.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 06/1800Z 29.0N 35.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 012120 CCA *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DIECINUEVE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 5 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT 1 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...DEPRESION TORNANDOSE MENOS ORGANIZADA... A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIECINUEVE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 34.2 OESTE O COMO A 685 MILLAS...1105 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR ...Y SE ANTICIPA QUE CONTINUARA EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH... 55 KILOMETROS POR HORA. LA ACTIVIDAD DE TRONADAS ES MINIMA...PERO SI SE DESARROLLA MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O EL DOMINGO...ALGUN LEVE DESARROLLO PUDIERA OCURRIR Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA CONVERTIRSE BREVEMENTE EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MB...29.77 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...14.7 NORTE... 34.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO... AL NORTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1008 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE WFO SAN JUAN PM ** WTPQ20 BABJ 012100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 012100 UTC 00HR 23.7N 121.6E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 012100 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 012100 UTC 00HR 23.7N 121.6E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 25KM/H P+24HR 24.6N 117.5E 960HPA 35M/S= ** WTPN31 PHNC 012200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 15E (OTIS) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 21.8N 111.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 111.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 22.5N 112.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 23.6N 112.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 25.2N 113.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 26.9N 113.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 29.5N 113.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 31.5N 113.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020400Z, 021000Z, 021600Z AND 022200Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 011800 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 12 AT 1800 01 OCTOBER TYPHOON (LONGWANG) (0519) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO THREE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO TWO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE THRRE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER REDIUS SOUTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 021800 TWO FOUR POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE EAST AT 031800 TWO FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 011800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 12 AT 1800 01 OCTOBER, TYPHOON (LONGWANG) (0519) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 23.4N 122.5E FORECAST TO MOVE WNW AT 05MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE 220KMS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 45MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE 200KMS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 021800 24.4N 118.5E AT 031800 25.2N 114.6E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP33 RJTD 012100 *** WARNING 012100. WARNING VALID 022100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 945 HPA AT 23.8N 121.6E TAIWAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 85 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020900UTC AT 24.1N 119.2E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 022100UTC AT 24.6N 117.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 012100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 012100UTC 23.8N 121.6E GOOD MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 85NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 022100UTC 24.6N 117.1E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 031800UTC 25.0N 114.2E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 012200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 012200 UTC 00HR 23.8N 121.2E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR W 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 012245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 012100 UTC, TYPHOON LONGWANG (0519) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (23.8 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (121.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 022100 UTC TWO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (24.6 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (117.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 032100 UTC TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (23.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (114.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 042100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 VHHH 012245 CCA *** CORRECTION TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 012100 UTC, TYPHOON LONGWANG (0519) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (23.8 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (121.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOUR S. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 022100 UTC TWO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (24.6 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (117.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 032100 UTC TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (23.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (114.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 042100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 012300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 012300 UTC 00HR 23.9N 121.0E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR W 25KM/H= ** WTNT35 KNHC 012348 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DRIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES... 130 KM... SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO AND ABOUT 95 MILES... 150 KM...SOUTH OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING WESTWARD... BUT A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR... IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE... SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY OCCUR. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT. DURING THE PAST HOUR... NOAA BUOY 42056 LOCATED NORTH OF THE CENTER BRIEFLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 33 MPH...53 KM/HR. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES... WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS WESTERN CUBA. REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...19.2 N... 86.7 W. MOVEMENT DRIFTING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ35 KNHC 012357 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005 ...OTIS MOVING LITTLE...STILL A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES... 210 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 190 MILES... 310 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. OTIS HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT OTIS COULD STILL REACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS A HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA SUNDAY AND MONDAY... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH OTIS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. REPEATING THE 5 PM PDT POSITION...22.1 N...111.8 W. MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM PDT. FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ35 KNHC 012357 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005 ...OTIS MOVING LITTLE...STILL A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES... 210 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 190 MILES... 310 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. OTIS HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT OTIS COULD STILL REACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS A HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA SUNDAY AND MONDAY... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH OTIS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. REPEATING THE 5 PM PDT POSITION...22.1 N...111.8 W. MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM PDT. FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN $$