** WTSR20 WSSS 010600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 011200 UTC 00HR 23.1N 123.9E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 011200 UTC 00HR 23.1N 123.9E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 24.4N 118.7E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 25.6N 114.9E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 27.0N 112.6E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP23 RJTD 011200 *** WARNING 011200. WARNING VALID 021200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 930 HPA AT 23.1N 123.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 85 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 23.8N 121.0E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 24.3N 118.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 24.8N 114.6E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 011200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 011200UTC 23.1N 123.9E GOOD MOVE W 13KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 85NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 021200UTC 24.3N 118.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 031200UTC 24.8N 114.6E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 011300 UTC 00HR 23.1N 123.6E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 011345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 011200 UTC, TYPHOON LONGWANG (0519) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (23.1 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (123.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021200 UTC TWO FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (24.2 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (119.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031200 UTC TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (24.7 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (116.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT74 KNHC 011423 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT TUE OCT 4 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 20.8N 88.8W 41 X X X 41 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 3 3 21.7N 90.7W 12 17 X 1 30 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 4 4 22.5N 92.5W X 20 3 1 24 GALVESTON TX X X X 6 6 MUAN 219N 850W 5 1 X 1 7 FREEPORT TX X X X 7 7 MMCZ 205N 869W 58 X X X 58 PORT O CONNOR TX X X 1 8 9 MZBZ 175N 883W X X 1 1 2 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X 1 8 9 MMSO 238N 982W X X 3 10 13 BROWNSVILLE TX X X 3 10 13 MMTM 222N 979W X X 3 9 12 GULF 28N 89W X X X 3 3 MMTX 210N 974W X X 2 9 11 GULF 28N 91W X X 1 5 6 MMVR 192N 961W X X 1 7 8 GULF 28N 93W X X 2 7 9 MMFR 185N 926W X 2 3 3 8 GULF 28N 95W X X 2 8 10 MMMD 210N 897W 32 2 X X 34 GULF 27N 96W X X 3 9 12 BURAS LA X X X 2 2 GULF 25N 96W X X 9 7 16 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN C FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON D FROM 8AM MON TO 8AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 011423 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005 1500Z SAT OCT 01 2005 AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. AT 10 AM CDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 85.8W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 85.8W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 85.5W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.9N 86.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.8N 88.8W...INLAND YUCATAN MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 21.7N 90.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.5N 92.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.4N 95.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 23.5N 98.5W...INLAND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 23.0N 101.5W...DISSPATING INLAND MEXICO MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 85.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN33 PGTW 011500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 23.1N 123.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 123.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 23.7N 121.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 24.4N 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 25.2N 117.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 26.5N 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 123.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH- EAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.// ** WTNT34 KNHC 011432 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005 ...TWENTIETH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING ISSUED FOR THE YUCATAN... AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. AT 10 AM CDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES... 205 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO AND ABOUT 110 MILES... 175 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH ... 9 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE... SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY OCCUR. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO ASSESS THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES... WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...19.3 N... 85.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 011433 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT TUE OCT 4 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 16.4N 35.0W 53 X X X 53 20.0N 36.7W 3 19 2 1 25 18.2N 35.9W 25 7 1 X 33 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN C FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON D FROM 8AM MON TO 8AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 011433 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192005 1500Z SAT OCT 01 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 33.8W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 33.8W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 33.7W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.8N 34.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.4N 35.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.2N 35.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.0N 36.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.0N 37.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 25.5N 37.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 29.0N 37.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 33.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 011436 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN RE-ORGANIZES FARTHER NORTH... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 33.8 WEST OR ABOUT 665 MILES...1075 KM... WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...14.1 N... 33.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN33 PGTW 011500 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 23.1N 123.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 123.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 23.7N 121.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 011500 RRC *** OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 25.2N 117.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 26.5N 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 123.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH- EAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 011500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 23.1N 123.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 123.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 23.7N 121.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 24.4N 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 25.2N 117.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 26.5N 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 123.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH- EAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.// ** WTNT25 KNHC 011448 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005 1500Z SAT OCT 01 2005 CORRECTED AWIPS BIN NUMBER FROM 4 TO 5 AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. AT 10 AM CDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 85.8W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 85.8W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 85.5W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.9N 86.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.8N 88.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 21.7N 90.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.5N 92.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.4N 95.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 23.5N 98.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 23.0N 101.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 85.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 011450 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DIECINUEVE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT 1 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL PERMANECE POCO ORGANIZADA... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIECINUEVE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 33.8 OESTE O COMO A 665 MILLAS...1075 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...11 KM/HR ...Y SE ANTICIPA QUE CONTINUARA EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LEVE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL DURANTE ESTA NOCHE O EL DOMINGO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MB...29.77 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...14.1 NORTE... 33.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO... AL NOR NOROESTE CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1008 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE WFO SAN JUAN PM ** WTNT35 KNHC 011451 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005 CORRECTED AWIPS BIN NUMBER FROM 4 TO 5 ...TWENTIETH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING ISSUED FOR THE YUCATAN... AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. AT 10 AM CDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES... 205 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO AND ABOUT 110 MILES... 175 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH ... 9 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE... SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY OCCUR. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO ASSESS THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES... WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...19.3 N... 85.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 011451 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005 1500Z SAT OCT 01 2005 AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. AT 8 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 111.8W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 200SE 180SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 111.8W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 111.8W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.5N 112.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 23.6N 112.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 25.2N 113.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 27.0N 113.3W...INLAND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 31.0N 113.0W...INLAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 34.0N 112.5W...INLAND OVER ARIZONA MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 111.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 011452 CCA *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DIECINUEVE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT 1 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL SE ESTA ORGANIZANDO NUEVAMENTE MAS AL NORTE... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIECINUEVE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 33.8 OESTE O COMO A 665 MILLAS...1075 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...11 KM/HR ...Y SE ANTICIPA QUE CONTINUARA EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LEVE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL DURANTE ESTA NOCHE O EL DOMINGO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MB...29.77 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...14.1 NORTE... 33.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO... AL NOR NOROESTE CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1008 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE WFO SAN JUAN PM ** WTNT75 KNHC 011452 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005 CORRECTED AWIP BIN NUMBER FROM 4 TO 5 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT TUE OCT 4 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 20.8N 88.8W 41 X X X 41 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 3 3 21.7N 90.7W 12 17 X 1 30 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 4 4 22.5N 92.5W X 20 3 1 24 GALVESTON TX X X X 6 6 MUAN 219N 850W 5 1 X 1 7 FREEPORT TX X X X 7 7 MMCZ 205N 869W 58 X X X 58 PORT O CONNOR TX X X 1 8 9 MZBZ 175N 883W X X 1 1 2 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X 1 8 9 MMSO 238N 982W X X 3 10 13 BROWNSVILLE TX X X 3 10 13 MMTM 222N 979W X X 3 9 12 GULF 28N 89W X X X 3 3 MMTX 210N 974W X X 2 9 11 GULF 28N 91W X X 1 5 6 MMVR 192N 961W X X 1 7 8 GULF 28N 93W X X 2 7 9 MMFR 185N 926W X 2 3 3 8 GULF 28N 95W X X 2 8 10 MMMD 210N 897W 32 2 X X 34 GULF 27N 96W X X 3 9 12 BURAS LA X X X 2 2 GULF 25N 96W X X 9 7 16 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7AM SUN TO 7PM SUN C FROM 7PM SUN TO 7AM MON D FROM 7AM MON TO 7AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ35 KNHC 011457 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005 ...OTIS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OF MEXICO... AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. AT 8 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES... 225 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 205 MILES... 325 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH OTIS OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. HEAVY AMOUNTS COULD SPREAD NORTHWARD TROUGH THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY. REPEATING THE 8 AM PDT POSITION...21.9 N...111.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 PM PDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 011503 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005 SATELLITE DATA AND SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY FESTERING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE PAST 4 DAYS HAS FINALLY ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE EXACT CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE... BUT WIND AND PRESSURE REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 42056 SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OF THE BUOY LOCATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON NOAA BUOY WIND REPORTS RANGING FROM 23 TO 27 KT OVER THE PAST 9 HOURS. TWO SHIPS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT 01/06Z ALSO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 28-32 KT. HOWEVER... QUALITY CONTROL CHECKS BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER INDICATE THAT THOSE WINDS WERE LIKELY 3-5 KT HIGH. CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE... AND SO HAS THE OUTFLOW PATTERN. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD ARRIVE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/05. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AT BEST... BUT THE SLOWLY BACKING WIND PROFILE AT NOAA BUOY 42056 SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS SOMEWHERE NEARBY. THE AVAILABLE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE BROAD BUT WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REMAINS INTACT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE 3 BAM MODELS... PLUS THE GFS AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 4 DAYS IS LAND INTERACTION. AS THE CYCLONE PASSES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 18-30 HOURS... INCREASED FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP THE RATHER LOOSE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD... AND THIS SHOULD AID IN THE QUICK REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ONCE THE SYSTEM EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 36 HOURS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 5 KT OR LESS WHILE THE CYCLONE IS OVER 29-30C SSTS. WITH A VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS... THIS SYSTEM COULD EASILY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT MAKES A SECOND LANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. EXCLUDING LAND INTERACTION... THE SHIPS MODEL INCREASES THE INTENSITY TO 88 KT BY 96 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 19.3N 85.8W 25 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 19.9N 86.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 20.8N 88.8W 25 KT...INLAND YUCATAN 36HR VT 03/0000Z 21.7N 90.7W 30 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 03/1200Z 22.5N 92.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 04/1200Z 23.4N 95.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 05/1200Z 23.5N 98.5W 40 KT...INLAND NERN MEXICO 120HR VT 06/1200Z 23.0N 101.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 011400 UTC 00HR 23.2N 123.5E 925HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011400 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 011400 UTC 00HR 23.2N 123.4E 925HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTPZ45 KNHC 011509 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005 THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...BUT CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A RING OF FAIRLY DEEP CONVECTION COMPLETELY ENCIRCLING THE EYE... AND RECENT PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE EYEWALL IS STILL INTACT...PERHAPS A LITTLE ERODED ON THE WEST SIDE. DVORAK T NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN TO 4.0 BUT CI NUMBERS ARE 5.0. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD TO 85 KT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS...AND THE WATERS BENEATH THE HURRICANE WILL ONLY COOL GRADUALLY...SO ONLY A SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE OTIS CROSSES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...STILL LIKELY AS A HURRICANE. OTIS IS STILL MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...PERHAPS 315/3. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY INDUCE A NORTHWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FASTER THAN THE NOGAPS BUT SLOWER THAN THE GFS...AND FAVORING THE GFDL SOLUTION WHICH TAKES A WEAKENING OTIS OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND INTO ARIZONA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DISSIPATING IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS. THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE FOR ONLY ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. SINCE OTIS HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD SUCH THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 21.9N 111.8W 85 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 22.5N 112.2W 80 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 23.6N 112.6W 80 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 25.2N 113.0W 70 KT 48HR VT 03/1200Z 27.0N 113.3W 65 KT...INLAND BAJA PENINSULA 72HR VT 04/1200Z 31.0N 113.0W 40 KT...INLAND N MEXICO 96HR VT 05/1200Z 34.0N 112.5W 25 KT...INLAND ARIZONA 120HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 011516 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005 SURFACE WIND DATA FROM A 01/0822 QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATE A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER EVEN FARTHER NORTH THAN SUSPECTED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB... AND 25 FROM AFWA. HOWEVER... DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE CLASSIFICATIONS WERE MADE... AND THE QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SEVERAL UNCONTAMINATED 30-KT WIND VECTORS IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. THEREFORE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/06. OTHER THAN THE RELOCATION OF THE CENTER FARTHER TO THE NORTH... THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. TD-20 IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTERWARDS... THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE WEAKENING STEERING FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW... COUPLED WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH ... IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN A DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM IS STILL OVER 26-28C SSTS. BY 48 HOURS... UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 25 KT AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 40 KT BY 72 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER... IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE STRONG SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 14.1N 33.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 14.8N 34.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 16.4N 35.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 18.2N 35.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 36.7W 40 KT 72HR VT 04/1200Z 23.0N 37.6W 35 KT 96HR VT 05/1200Z 25.5N 37.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 06/1200Z 29.0N 37.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 011200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 11 AT 1200 01 OCTOBER, TYPHHON (LONGWANG) (0519) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO THREE POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT NINE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHING THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO TWO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE THREE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 021200 TWO FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE EAST AT 031200 TWO SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 011500 UTC 00HR 23.3N 123.2E 925HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTPN31 PHNC 011600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 15E (OTIS) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 21.8N 111.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 111.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 22.5N 112.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 23.6N 112.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 25.2N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 27.0N 113.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 31.0N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 34.0N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012200Z, 020400Z, 021000Z AND 021600Z.// ** WTNT35 KNHC 011544 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005 CORRECTED AWIPS BIN NUMBER FROM 4 TO 5 ...TWENTIETH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING ISSUED FOR THE YUCATAN... AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. AT 10 AM CDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES... 205 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO AND ABOUT 110 MILES... 175 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH ... 9 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE... SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY OCCUR. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO ASSESS THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES... WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...19.3 N... 85.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTJP33 RJTD 011500 *** WARNING 011500. WARNING VALID 021500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 930 HPA AT 23.2N 123.2E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 85 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 23.9N 120.4E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 24.3N 117.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 011500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 011500UTC 23.2N 123.2E GOOD MOVE W 13KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 85NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 021500UTC 24.3N 117.8E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 031200UTC 24.8N 114.6E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPH RPLL 011200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 11 AT 1200 01 OCTOBER, TYPHOON (LONGWANG) (0519) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 23.1N 123.9E FORECAST TO MOVE WNW AT 06MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE 220KMS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 45MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE 200KMS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 021200 24.5N 118.3E AT 031200 26.0N 114.9E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 011600 UTC 00HR 23.3N 123.0E 930HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011600 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 011600 UTC 00HR 23.3N 123.0E 925HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 011645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 011500 UTC, TYPHOON LONGWANG (0519) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO THREE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (23.3 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (123.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021500 UTC TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (24.4 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (118.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031500 UTC TWO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (24.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (115.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT80 EGRR 011723 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.10.2005 HURRICANE OTIS ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 111.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.10.2005 21.8N 111.8W MODERATE 00UTC 02.10.2005 22.2N 111.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.10.2005 22.2N 112.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2005 23.6N 112.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2005 25.0N 111.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 04.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 12.4N 91.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2005 12.4N 91.5W WEAK 12UTC 02.10.2005 12.4N 92.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2005 12.7N 92.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2005 13.3N 92.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2005 14.2N 93.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2005 15.2N 94.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2005 16.0N 96.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 33.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.10.2005 13.3N 33.9W WEAK 00UTC 02.10.2005 14.7N 34.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2005 15.8N 35.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2005 17.2N 36.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2005 18.3N 37.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2005 19.5N 38.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2005 21.4N 37.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2005 22.9N 38.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.10.2005 24.5N 37.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 85.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.10.2005 18.7N 85.8W WEAK 00UTC 02.10.2005 18.8N 87.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2005 19.0N 87.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2005 17.8N 90.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2005 19.1N 92.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 04.10.2005 17.3N 94.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 011723 ** WTNT44 KNHC 011734 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005 CORRECTED TD-20 TO TD-19 SURFACE WIND DATA FROM A 01/0822 QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATE A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER EVEN FARTHER NORTH THAN SUSPECTED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB... AND 25 FROM AFWA. HOWEVER... DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE CLASSIFICATIONS WERE MADE... AND THE QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SEVERAL UNCONTAMINATED 30-KT WIND VECTORS IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. THEREFORE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/06. OTHER THAN THE RELOCATION OF THE CENTER FARTHER TO THE NORTH... THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. TD-19 IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTERWARDS... THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE WEAKENING STEERING FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW... COUPLED WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH ... IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN A DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM IS STILL OVER 26-28C SSTS. BY 48 HOURS... UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 25 KT AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 40 KT BY 72 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER... IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE STRONG SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 14.1N 33.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 14.8N 34.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 16.4N 35.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 18.2N 35.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 36.7W 40 KT 72HR VT 04/1200Z 23.0N 37.6W 35 KT 96HR VT 05/1200Z 25.5N 37.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 06/1200Z 29.0N 37.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTPZ35 KNHC 011741 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005 ...CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE OTIS NEARLY STATIONARY BUT EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES... 235 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 210 MILES... 340 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. OTIS IS NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA SUNDAY AND MONDAY... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH OTIS MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON TUESDAY. REPEATING THE 11 AM PDT POSITION...21.8 N...111.9 W. MOVEMENT... NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM PDT. FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 011742 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005 ...DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENING... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES... 205 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO AND ABOUT 110 MILES... 175 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN STATIONERY... BUT A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR... IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE... SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY OCCUR. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. DURING THE PAST HOUR... NOAA BUOY 42056 LOCATED NORTH OF THE CENTER BRIEFLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 36 MPH...58 KM/HR. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO BETTER ASSESS THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES... WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...19.3 N... 85.8 W. MOVEMENT STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 011700 UTC 00HR 23.3N 122.7E 925HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011700 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 011700 UTC 00HR 23.3N 122.7E 925HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 25KM/H=