** WTPQ20 BABJ 010600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 010600 UTC 00HR 22.8N 125.4E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 23.8N 120.2E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 24.7N 116.8E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 25.6N 114.3E 996HPA 18M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 010640 COR *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 01-10-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 22.5 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTJP23 RJTD 010600 *** WARNING 010600. WARNING VALID 020600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 930 HPA AT 22.8N 125.3E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 23.4N 122.6E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 23.9N 119.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 25.1N 115.9E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 25.4N 113.5E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1002 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 010600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 010600UTC 22.8N 125.3E GOOD MOVE W 15KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 75NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 020600UTC 23.9N 119.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 030600UTC 25.1N 115.9E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 040600UTC 25.4N 113.5E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ32 RJTD 010600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 010600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN33 PGTW 010900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 22.8N 125.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 125.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 23.5N 122.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 24.3N 120.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 25.1N 118.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 26.2N 116.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 124.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 010700 UTC 00HR 22.8N 125.2E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTPN33 PGTW 010700 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 22.8N 125.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 125.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 23.5N 122.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 24.3N 120.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 25.1N 118.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 26.2N 116.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 124.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 010700 RRB *** 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 24.3N 120.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 25.1N 118.1E ** WTPN33 PGTW 010700 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 22.8N 125.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 125.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 23.5N 122.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 010700 RRC *** MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 26.2N 116.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 124.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.// ** WTNT34 KNHC 010837 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION WAS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST OR ABOUT 695 MILES...1115 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...13.3 N... 34.0 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 010837 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005 LATEST MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WAS FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. MOST OF THE`CONVECTION... ALTHOUGH QUITE STRONG...IS WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER. GIVEN SUCH A SHEARED PATTERN THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IF THE SHEAR RELAXES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THEREAFTER...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE PREVENTING FURTHER STRENGTHENING. THE PRESENT RELOCATION USING THE MICROWAVE DATA DOES NOT REFLECT A NORTHWARD MOTION...IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER...AS THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION MOVES WESTWARD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. SOME OF THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LOW TO THE WEST FASTER...CONSEQUENTLY THEY BRING THE DEPRESSION FATHER WEST. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL TRACK ENVELOPE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 13.3N 34.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 14.0N 34.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 35.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 02/1800Z 16.0N 35.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 03/0600Z 17.5N 36.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 04/0600Z 21.6N 37.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 05/0600Z 25.0N 37.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 06/0600Z 28.0N 37.0W 40 KT $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 010837 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192005 0900Z SAT OCT 01 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 34.0W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 34.0W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 34.0W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.0N 34.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.0N 35.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.0N 35.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.5N 36.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.6N 37.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 25.0N 37.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 28.0N 37.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 34.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 010837 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT TUE OCT 4 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 15.0N 35.0W 62 X X X 62 17.5N 36.5W 8 14 4 1 27 16.0N 35.5W 39 1 X X 40 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN C FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON D FROM 2AM MON TO 2AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 010800 UTC 00HR 22.9N 124.9E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTPZ25 KNHC 010839 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005 0900Z SAT OCT 01 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO LORETO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 111.7W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 200SE 180SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 111.7W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 111.5W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.5N 111.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 23.5N 112.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 25.0N 113.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 26.5N 113.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 29.5N 113.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 32.5N 113.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 34.5N 112.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 111.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPZ35 KNHC 010839 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005 ...OTIS REACHES 105 MPH WINDS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO LORETO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 205 MILES... 330 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. OTIS HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH OTIS OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. HEAVY AMOUNTS COULD SPREAD NORTHWARD TROUGH THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY. REPEATING THE 2 AM PDT POSITION...21.9 N...111.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 AM PDT. FORECASTER AVILA/LAUER $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 010840 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005 OTIS CONTINUES TO HAVE A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE REACHED 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS. OTIS HAS PROBABLY PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THEN NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BE OVER COOLER WATERS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN BUT OTIS IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A HURRICANE. | THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT A GENERAL NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS SHOULD BEGIN SOON. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY SEEN PLUNGING SOUTHEASTWARD ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES. THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CORE OF OTIS NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE FOR 24 HR OR MORE. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOTION OF OTIS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...NO CHANGE IN WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 21.9N 111.7W 90 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 22.5N 111.9W 90 KT 24HR VT 02/0600Z 23.5N 112.4W 85 KT 36HR VT 02/1800Z 25.0N 113.0W 80 KT 48HR VT 03/0600Z 26.5N 113.2W 70 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 04/0600Z 29.5N 113.5W 45 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 05/0600Z 32.5N 113.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 06/0600Z 34.5N 112.0W 20 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 010851 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DIECINUEVE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT 1 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL PERMANECE POCO ORGANIZADA... LAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE INDICAN QUE LA DEPRESION ESTABA UN POCO MAS AL NORTE DE LO INDICADO ANTERIORMENTE. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...SE ESTIMABA QUE EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIECINUEVE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 34.0 OESTE O COMO A 695 MILLAS...1115 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. LA DEPRESION SE HA MANTENIDO CASI ESTACIONARIA PERO SE ESPERA QUE COMIENCE UNA TRAYECTORIA LENTA AL NOROESTE MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH... 55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1006 MB...29.71 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...13.3 NORTE... 34.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...ESTACIONARIA. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1006 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 010900 UTC 00HR 23.0N 124.6E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 24.4N 119.2E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 25.6N 115.6E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 26.2N 113.0E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTPN31 PHNC 011000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 15E (OTIS) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 21.9N 111.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 111.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 22.5N 111.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 23.5N 112.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 25.0N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 26.5N 113.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 29.5N 113.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 32.5N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 34.5N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011600Z, 012200Z, 020400Z AND 021000Z.// ** WTJP33 RJTD 010900 *** WARNING 010900. WARNING VALID 020900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 930 HPA AT 23.0N 124.7E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 012100UTC AT 23.6N 121.8E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020900UTC AT 24.0N 119.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 010900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 010900UTC 23.0N 124.7E GOOD MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 75NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 020900UTC 24.0N 119.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 030600UTC 25.1N 115.9E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 040600UTC 25.4N 113.5E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPH20 RPMM 010600 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 10 AT 0600 01 OCTOBER , TYPHOON (LONGWANG) {0519} WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO TWO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO TWO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE THREE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 020600 TWO THREE POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE NINE EAST POINT SIX EAST AT 030600 TWO FIVE POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA = ** WTPH RPLL 010600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING NO.10 AT 0600 01 OCTOBER, TYPHOON (LONGWANG) (0519) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT (22.8N 125.4E) FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NOTHWEST AT 06MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350 KMS RADIUS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE 220KMS ELSEWHERE FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 45MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 150 KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMI - CERCLE 200 KMS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 020600 23.9N 119.6E AND AT 030600 25.3N 114.0E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE - HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 011000 UTC 00HR 23.0N 124.3E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 011045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010900 UTC, TYPHOON LONGWANG (0519) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 920 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (23.0 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (124.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 110 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020900 UTC TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (23.9 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (119.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC TWO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (24.6 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (116.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 011100 UTC 00HR 23.0N 124.0E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTPZ35 KNHC 011142 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005 ...OTIS CREEPING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO LORETO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 205 MILES... 330 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. OTIS HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM... WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 43 MPH...69 KM/HR. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH OTIS OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. HEAVY AMOUNTS COULD SPREAD NORTHWARD TROUGH THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY. REPEATING THE 5 AM PDT POSITION...21.9 N...111.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM PDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$