** WTSR20 WSSS 301800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 010000 UTC 00HR 22.5N 127.0E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 24.0N 121.3E 930HPA 55M/S P+48HR 24.7N 117.0E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 25.6N 114.4E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP23 RJTD 010000 *** WARNING 010000. WARNING VALID 020000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 930 HPA AT 22.5N 126.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 22.9N 123.9E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 23.5N 121.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 24.9N 117.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 25.2N 115.0E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1002 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 010000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 010000UTC 22.5N 126.9E GOOD MOVE W 14KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 75NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 020000UTC 23.5N 121.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 030000UTC 24.9N 117.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 040000UTC 25.2N 115.0E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ32 RJTD 010000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 010000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTCA31 MHTG 010052Z *** MHTG SIGMET1 VALID 010130/010630 MHTG- FIR CENTROAMERICA ACT AREA OCNL CB TSFCST TOPS FL420 BTN 16N19N AND 82W84W MOV NW 10KT NC. ** WTKO20 RKSL 010000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6 NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG ANALYSIS POSITION 010000UTC 22.5N 127.0E MOVEMENT W 14KT PRES/VMAX 930HPA 95KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 020000UTC 23.8N 121.3E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 82KT 48HR POSITION 030000UTC 25.3N 117.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 72HR POSITION 040000UTC 25.6N 115.0E WITHIN 0NM PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN33 PGTW 010300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 22.4N 127.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 127.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 22.8N 124.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 23.3N 121.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 23.6N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 23.9N 117.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 24.8N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.8N 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 126.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM EAST-SOUTH- EAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A 25 NM EYE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 010200 RRB *** 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 23.3N 121.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 23.6N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 010200 RRD *** 040000Z --- 24.8N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.8N 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 126.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM EAST-SOUTH- EAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A 25 NM EYE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 010200 RRC *** 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 23.9N 117.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: ** WTPN33 PGTW 010200 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 22.4N 127.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 127.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 22.8N 124.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 010200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 22.4N 127.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 127.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 22.8N 124.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 23.3N 121.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 23.6N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 23.9N 117.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 24.8N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.8N 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 126.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM EAST-SOUTH- EAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A 25 NM EYE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 010100 UTC 00HR 22.5N 126.9E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTPN33 PGTW 010200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 22.4N 127.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 127.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 22.8N 124.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 23.3N 121.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 23.6N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 23.9N 117.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 24.8N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.8N 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 126.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM EAST-SOUTH- EAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A 25 NM EYE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 010100 UTC 00HR 22.5N 126.9E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTPN33 PGTW 010000 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 22.4N 127.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 127.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 22.8N 124.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 010000 RRB *** 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 23.3N 121.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 23.6N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 010000 RRC *** 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 23.9N 117.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: ** WTPN33 PGTW 010000 RRD *** 040000Z --- 24.8N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.8N 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 126.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM EAST-SOUTH- EAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE/PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A 25 NM EYE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 010000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 22.4N 127.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 127.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 22.8N 124.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 23.3N 121.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 23.6N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 23.9N 117.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 24.8N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.8N 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 126.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM EAST-SOUTH- EAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE/PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A 25 NM EYE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.// ** WTPZ35 KNHC 010230 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005 ...OTIS SLOWS AND STRENGTHENS...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA... AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. AT 8 PM PDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. AT 8 PM PDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO LORETO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES... 205 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 220 MILES... 355 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OTIS COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 43 MPH...69 KM/HR... AND A GUST TO 50 MPH...81 KM/HR WERE REPORTED AT CABO SAN LUCAS AT A HEIGHT OF 735 FT...224 METERS ABOVE SEA LEVEL. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... AND SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. REPEATING THE 8 PM PDT POSITION...21.7 N...111.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 977 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 AM PDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 010230 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005 0300Z SAT OCT 01 2005 AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. AT 8 PM PDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. AT 8 PM PDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO LORETO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 111.4W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 200SE 180SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 111.4W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 111.3W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.4N 111.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.3N 112.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.7N 112.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.3N 112.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 29.0N 112.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 32.0N 112.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 35.5N 110.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 111.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 010231 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT MON OCT 3 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 13.0N 33.9W 72 X X X 72 15.8N 35.2W 16 11 1 1 29 14.2N 34.6W 42 X X X 42 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN C FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN D FROM 8PM SUN TO 8PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 010231 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO ANY LAND AREA... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.1 WEST OR ABOUT 660 MILES...1065 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...12.3 N... 33.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 010231 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192005 0300Z SAT OCT 01 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 33.1W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 33.1W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 33.0W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.5N 33.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.0N 33.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.2N 34.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.8N 35.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.5N 36.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 23.5N 36.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 26.5N 36.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 33.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 010200 UTC 00HR 22.5N 126.6E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTPZ45 KNHC 010249 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005 AFTER LOOKING A LITTLE RAGGED AT ABOUT 00Z...OTIS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE EYE CLEARING OUT AND THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS COOLING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM SAB...AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA. BASED ON THE RECENTLY IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE MEXICAN RADAR AT LOS CABOS INDICATES THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/4...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE SLOWER THAN THAT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/ UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 32N122W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO NEAR 23N124W. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS IS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 115W...AND THIS RIDGE IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR SOMEWHAT BLOCKING THE FORWARD MOTION OF OTIS DURING THE EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS BROAD DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE LOW FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...SHOUDL CAUSE OTIS TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HR...THEN GRADUALLY RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. ALL GUIDANCE SAVE THE ECMWF NOW AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE UKMET CALLS FOR A FASTER AND MORE EASTWARD MOTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TURN OTIS MORE WESTWARD AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BETWEEN 24-96 HR...CALLING FOR OTIS TO MAKE LANDFALL IN CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 48 HR...AND MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO IN A LITTLE OVER 72 HR. THE NEW TRACK IS JUST TO THE LEFT AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS MODELS GUNS AND GUNA. OTIS IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO GRADUALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A HURRICANE STRONGER THAN OTIS IS NOW. BASED ON THIS...THE GOOD EYE STRUCTURE...AND LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR OTIS TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KT IN ABOUT 24 HR. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE PEAK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE...90 KT IS STRONGER THAN THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. THUS...OTIS MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AS MUCH AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. AFTER 24 HR...COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE WEAKENING. WHILE A 120 HR POINT IS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE SURFACE CENTER OF OTIS COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE UNITED STATES...ALTHOUGH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL CENTER SHOULD STILL EXIST. THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE FOR 24 HR OR MORE. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 21.7N 111.4W 80 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 22.4N 111.9W 85 KT 24HR VT 02/0000Z 23.3N 112.2W 90 KT 36HR VT 02/1200Z 24.7N 112.5W 80 KT 48HR VT 03/0000Z 26.3N 112.7W 70 KT 72HR VT 04/0000Z 29.0N 112.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 05/0000Z 32.0N 112.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 06/0000Z 35.5N 110.5W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 010250 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DIEZ Y NUEVE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST VIERNES 30 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL SE INTENSIFICA UN POCO...NO AMENAZA TIERRA POR EL MOMENTO... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIEZ Y NUEVE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 33.1 OESTE O COMO A 660 MILLAS...1065 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO LENTAMENTE AL NOROESTE Y SE ESPERA ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH... 55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL EL SABADO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1006 MB...29.71 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...12.3 NORTE... 33.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1006 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 010308 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2005 AN SSM/IS OVERPASS AT 2227Z INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF STRONG AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION. SHORTWAVE IMAGERY FROM METEOSAT-8 SINCE THAT TIME SUGGESTS THIS IS STILL THE CASE...BUT IT CANNOT BE DETERMINED JUST HOW FAR THE CENTER IS FROM THE CONVECTION AT THE MOMENT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 25 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 310/2. OTHER THAN THAT... THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 700 N MI NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVED WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD DIRECTION FOR 72-96 HR. THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD BETWEEN THE MORE WESTWARD GFS AND THE MORE EASTWARD NOGAPS. THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH 96 HR IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE OF DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. AFTER 96 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE MAY FORM NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH COULD STEER IT MORE WESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT SHOW THIS YET...BUT WILL SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN IN RESPONSE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING 15-20 KT OF NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...ALTHOUGH THIS NOT STOPPING THE CONVECTION THUS FAR. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS DECREASING SHEAR IN ABOUT 12 HR AND MAINTAINS THIS THROUGH ABOUT 60 HR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KT IN 48-72 HR. THIS IS A BIT LESS THAN EITHER THE SHIPS OR GFDL ARE FORECASTING. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE DEEP-LAYER LOW...AND IF THE DEPRESSION GETS TOO CLOSE TO THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE MUCH STRONGER THAN SHIPS IS FORECASTING. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE UNTIL IT IS MORE APPARENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE STRONGER SHEAR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 12.3N 33.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 12.5N 33.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 02/0000Z 13.0N 33.9W 40 KT 36HR VT 02/1200Z 14.2N 34.6W 45 KT 48HR VT 03/0000Z 15.8N 35.2W 50 KT 72HR VT 04/0000Z 19.5N 36.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 05/0000Z 23.5N 36.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 06/0000Z 26.5N 36.5W 45 KT $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 010000 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 09 AT 0000 01 OCTOBER TYPHOON (LONGWANG) (0519) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO TWO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETR RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE TWO TWO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE THREE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMERTER RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 020000 TWO THREE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN EAST AT 030000 TWO FIVE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 010300 UTC 00HR 22.6N 126.3E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTPH RPLL 010000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING NO.09 AT 0000 01 OCTOBER, TYPHOON (LONGWANG) (0519) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT (22.5N 127.0E) FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT 06MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350 KMS RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE 220KMS ELSEWHERE FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 45MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 150 KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMI - CERCLE 200 KMS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 020000 23.3N 121.7E AND AT 030000 25.4N 116.8E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE - HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPN31 PHNC 010400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 15E (OTIS) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 21.5N 111.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 095 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 111.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 22.4N 111.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 23.3N 112.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 24.7N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 26.3N 112.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 29.0N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 32.0N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 35.5N 110.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011000Z, 011600Z, 012200Z AND 020400Z. ** WTJP33 RJTD 010300 *** WARNING 010300. WARNING VALID 020300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 930 HPA AT 22.6N 126.1E SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011500UTC AT 23.0N 123.2E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 23.7N 120.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 010300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 010300UTC 22.6N 126.1E GOOD MOVE W 15KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 75NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 020300UTC 23.7N 120.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 030000UTC 24.9N 117.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 040000UTC 25.2N 115.0E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 010400 UTC 00HR 22.6N 126.0E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 010519 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.10.2005 HURRICANE OTIS ANALYSED POSITION : 21.3N 111.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.10.2005 21.3N 111.1W STRONG 12UTC 01.10.2005 22.1N 111.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2005 22.8N 111.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2005 23.8N 111.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 03.10.2005 26.3N 111.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 11.9N 33.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.10.2005 11.9N 33.0W WEAK 12UTC 01.10.2005 12.7N 33.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2005 13.7N 33.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2005 14.5N 34.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2005 16.4N 35.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2005 17.9N 35.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2005 19.6N 36.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2005 21.2N 36.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2005 22.6N 37.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.10.2005 25.0N 37.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2005 27.4N 37.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2005 29.8N 37.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 07.10.2005 31.1N 38.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+72 : 21.8N 74.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.10.2005 21.8N 74.6W WEAK 12UTC 04.10.2005 23.6N 77.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2005 24.7N 79.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.10.2005 25.0N 82.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2005 24.1N 84.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2005 25.8N 84.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2005 25.1N 85.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 010519 ** WTNT80 EGRR 010519 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.10.2005 HURRICANE OTIS ANALYSED POSITION : 21.3N 111.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.10.2005 21.3N 111.1W STRONG 12UTC 01.10.2005 22.1N 111.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2005 22.8N 111.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2005 23.8N 111.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 03.10.2005 26.3N 111.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 11.9N 33.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.10.2005 11.9N 33.0W WEAK 12UTC 01.10.2005 12.7N 33.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2005 13.7N 33.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2005 14.5N 34.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2005 16.4N 35.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2005 17.9N 35.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2005 19.6N 36.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2005 21.2N 36.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2005 22.6N 37.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.10.2005 25.0N 37.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2005 27.4N 37.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2005 29.8N 37.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 07.10.2005 31.1N 38.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+72 : 21.8N 74.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.10.2005 21.8N 74.6W WEAK 12UTC 04.10.2005 23.6N 77.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2005 24.7N 79.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.10.2005 25.0N 82.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2005 24.1N 84.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2005 25.8N 84.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2005 25.1N 85.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 010519 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 010500 UTC 00HR 22.7N 125.7E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTPZ35 KNHC 010546 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005 ...OTIS HESITATES... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO LORETO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 220 MILES... 355 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. OTIS HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND OTIS COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... AND SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. REPEATING THE 11 PM PDT POSITION...21.7 N...111.6 W. MOVEMENT... NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 977 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM PDT. FORECASTER AVILA/LAUER $$