** WTPQ20 BABJ 301800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 301800 UTC 00HR 22.3N 128.5E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 23.2N 123.6E 930HPA 55M/S P+48HR 24.2N 119.3E 955HPA 40M/S P+72HR 25.6N 115.6E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP23 RJTD 301800 *** WARNING 301800. WARNING VALID 011800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 935 HPA AT 22.4N 128.5E SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 23.2N 123.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 24.9N 118.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 25.2N 115.2E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1002 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 301800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 301800UTC 22.4N 128.5E GOOD MOVE W 14KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 75NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 011800UTC 23.2N 123.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 021800UTC 24.9N 118.1E 150NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 031800UTC 25.2N 115.2E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ32 RJTD 301800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL(TYPHOON MODEL) ON TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) AT 12 UTC IS VALID TILL 66 HOURS. THIS IS A SPECIAL ISSUE TO REPORT VALID PORTION OF RSMC GUIDANCE FO R FORECAST.= ** WTPQ32 RJTD 301800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL(TYPHOON MODEL) ON TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) AT 12 UTC IS VALID TILL 66 HOURS. THIS IS A SPECIAL ISSUE TO REPORT VALID PORTION OF RSMC GUIDANCE FO R FORECAST.= ** WTPA44 PHFO 301957 *** TCDCP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 65 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1100 AM HST FRI SEP 30 2005 LATEST SCATTEROMETER AND BIG ISLAND RADAR DATA SHOW THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH HAS OPENED UP INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...WITH NO WESTERLY WINDS NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE OLD CIRCULATION CENTER. AS KENNETH ENCOUNTERS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH LAND AND...SPURRED ON BY A DEEP LOW ALOFT...TRIGGER A RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE ALOHA STATE. INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS SPAWNED BY THE OPEN TROPICAL WAVE MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER WILL NOW CLOSE THE BOOK ON KENNETH AS AN ORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE THE LAST DISCUSSION ON THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. FORECASTER POWELL FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 19.4N 154.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPA24 PHFO 301957 *** TCMCP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 65 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112005 2100Z FRI SEP 30 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 154.7W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 154.7W AT 30/2100Z. AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 154.2W. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 154.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER POWELL $$ ** WTPA34 PHFO 301958 *** TCPCP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 65 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1100 AM HST FRI SEP 30 2005 AT 11 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 154.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 MB...29.91 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM HST POSITION...19.4 N...154.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER POWELL $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 302004 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005 THE EYE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER DEFINED IN BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY... AND ALSO IN RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT FROM TAFB... 90 KT FROM SAB... 77 KT FROM AFWA... AND A 30/1059Z UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 975 MB AND 80 KT. THE MOST RECENT RAW ODT VALUES HAVE INCREASED SHARPLY TO T5.4/99 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/07. NOT TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD... BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. HOWEVER... THE 12Z MODELS... INCLUDING THE GFDL AND CANADIAN MODELS... ARE NOW SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECASTS... AND THE CURRENT AND PREVIOUS GFS... NOGAPS...AND UKMET MODEL RUNS IN RECURVING OTIS SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 48-72 HOURS... AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS LIE MAINLY WITH THE FORECAST MOTION. THE UKMET IS FASTER AND MORE TO THE RIGHT... WHEREAS THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS ARE SLOWER AND ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OTHER MODELS ARE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THOSE TWO EXTREMES. SINCE THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING BETTER THE EVOLUTION OF THE DIGGING LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST... MORE WEIGHT HAS BEEN PLACED ON THOSE TWO SOLUTIONS. ALTHOUGH OTIS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... A 120-HOUR POSITION WAS INCLUDED FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES BASED ON THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE DECOUPLED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE OTIS WILL BE OVER OVER 28C OR WARMER SSTS... AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 2 KT TO 7 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL... WHICH ONLY BRINGS OTIS UP TO 80 KT IN 12 HOURS... BUT MUCH HIGHER THAN THE GFDL MODEL... WHICH WEAKENS OTIS IMMEDIATELY AND DOWN TO 66 KT IN 24 HOURS. ONE DISTURBING PIECE OF INTENSITY INFORMATION IS THE HIGH ODT VALUE. THERE IS AT LEAST A MODERATE PROBABILITY THAT OTIS COULD REACH CATEGORY 3 STATUS IN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS BEFORE THE INTENSITY LEVELS OFF OR DECREASES AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER TO 26C SSTS. THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY. 12-FT SEAS WERE INCREASED BASED ON 18Z SHIP OBSERVATIONS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 21.6N 111.2W 75 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 22.3N 111.7W 85 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 23.3N 112.2W 90 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 24.4N 112.4W 80 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 26.2N 113.0W 70 KT...NEAR WEST-CENTRAL BAJA 72HR VT 03/1800Z 28.7N 112.9W 45 KT...NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA 96HR VT 04/1800Z 32.0N 112.0W 25 KT...INLAND NWRN MEXICO 120HR VT 05/1800Z 35.5N 110.0W 20 KT...INLAND ERN ARIZONA $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 302005 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005 2100Z FRI SEP 30 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO. THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG BOTH COASTS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 111.2W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 200SE 180SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 111.2W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 111.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.3N 111.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 23.3N 112.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 24.4N 112.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 26.2N 113.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 28.7N 112.9W...NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 32.0N 112.0W...INLAND NWRN MEXICO MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 35.5N 110.0W...INLAND EASTERN ARIZONA MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 111.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ35 KNHC 302008 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005 ...OTIS CONTINUING TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED... ...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO. THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG BOTH COASTS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES... 195 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 230 MILES... 375 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND OTIS COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 46 MPH...74 KM/HR... AND A GUST TO 61 MPH...98 KM/HR WERE REPORTED AT CABO SAN LUCAS AT A HEIGHT OF 735 FT...224 METERS ABOVE SEA LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... AND SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TOMORROW. REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...21.6 N...111.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 PM PDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN33 PGTW 302100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301800Z --- NEAR 22.4N 128.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 128.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 23.0N 125.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 23.6N 122.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 24.0N 120.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 24.2N 118.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 24.9N 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 26.5N 114.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 302100Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 127.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY LARGE EYE AS A RESULT OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. ADDITIONALLY, THE OVER- ALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE HAS BECOME SYMMETRIC. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.// ** WTNT24 KNHC 302050 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192005 2100Z FRI SEP 30 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 32.9W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 32.9W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 32.9W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.0N 33.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.2N 33.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.1N 34.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.7N 35.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.0N 36.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 22.0N 37.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 26.0N 37.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 32.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 302050 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2005 ...19TH DEPRESSION OF SEASON FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 32.9 WEST OR ABOUT 665 MILES...1070 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR. A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...11.8 N... 32.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 302050 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT MON OCT 3 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 12.2N 33.6W 99 X X X 99 14.7N 35.3W 14 12 1 1 28 13.1N 34.4W 45 X X X 45 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN C FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN D FROM 2PM SUN TO 2PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 302100 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2005 METSAT-8 VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS DEPICTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY A CLOSED AND FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MORE RECENTLY... SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM HAS NOW ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... THE 19TH OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON. DVORAK T NUMBERS AT 18Z WERE 1.5 FROM SAB AND 2.0 FROM TAFB... AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY... ALTHOUGH THE MOTION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO SUGGESTS A WESTWARD DRIFT... PERHAPS 275/2. THE LACK OF STEERING RESULTS FROM PRESENCE OF A DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 700 N MI TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION... RATHER THAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGING THAT IS MORE OFTEN IN PLACE ALONG ABOUT 25N AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS... UNTIL THE LOW TO THE NORTH DEPARTS NORTHEASTWARD AS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A TURN OF THE DEPRESSION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH... WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED... AS HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO ITS WEST AND RISE TO ITS EAST... AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAPE VERDES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AND WEST OF THE NOGAPS AND GFDL BUT FASTER THAN THE GFS WHICH SEEMS SLOWED BY A SEEMINGLY SPURIOUS LOW TO ITS EAST. NONE OF THE MODELS FORECAST A MOTION NORTH OF 30N WITHIN FIVE DAYS DUE TO A RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY NOT TOO PROHIBITIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT... AND THE SSTS EXCEED 28C. SOME STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS. BEYOND THEN... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE INTENSITY CHANGE SINCE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ALONG THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH ANTICIPATES CONTINUED STRENGTHENING TO 60 KT BY 120 HOURS... BUT THAT IS ALONG THE MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY BAMM TRACK... AND IT IS ALSO MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE GFDL. FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 11.8N 32.9W 25 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 12.0N 33.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 12.2N 33.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 13.1N 34.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 14.7N 35.3W 50 KT 72HR VT 03/1800Z 18.0N 36.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 04/1800Z 22.0N 37.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 05/1800Z 26.0N 37.0W 45 KT $$ ** WTPN32 PHNC 302200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/302130ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 065 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301800Z --- NEAR 19.3N 154.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 154.2W --- REMARKS: THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC ME TEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 9 FEET. REFER TO HURRICANE 15E (OTIS) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTCA44 TJSJ 302107 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DIEZ Y NUEVE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST VIERNES 30 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DEPRESION 19 DE LA TEMPORADA SE FORMA EN EL LEJANO ATLANTICO ... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIEZ Y NUEVE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 11.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 32.9 OESTE O COMO A 665 MILLAS...1075 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A 2 MPH...4 KILOMETROS POR HORA. UN MOVIMIENTO LENTO CON UN GIRO GRADUAL AL NOROESTE SE ESPERA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH... 45 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...11.8 NORTE... 32.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 2 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 30 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1007 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB/BROWN $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 301800 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 08 AT 1800 30 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (LONGWANG) (0519) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO TWO POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETR RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE TWO TWO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE THREE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMERTER RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH WEST SEMI-CIRCLE TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 011800 TWO THREE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT TWO EAST AT 021800 TWO FOUR POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN31 PHNC 302200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/302135ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 15E (OTIS) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301800Z --- NEAR 21.3N 111.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 111.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 22.3N 111.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 23.3N 112.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 24.4N 112.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 26.2N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 28.7N 112.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 32.0N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 35.5N 110.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010400Z, 011000Z, 011600Z AND 012200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KENNETH) (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. ** WTPN33 PGTW 302100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301800Z --- NEAR 22.4N 128.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 128.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 23.0N 125.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 302100 RRB *** 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 23.6N 122.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 24.0N 120.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 302100 RRD *** MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 26.5N 114.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 302100Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 127.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY LARGE EYE AS A RESULT OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. ADDITIONALLY, THE OVER- ALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE HAS BECOME SYMMETRIC. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 302100 RRC *** 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 24.2N 118.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 24.9N 115.7E ** WTJP33 RJTD 302100 *** WARNING 302100. WARNING VALID 012100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 935 HPA AT 22.5N 127.8E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010900UTC AT 22.8N 124.7E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 012100UTC AT 23.3N 121.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 302100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 302100UTC 22.5N 127.8E GOOD MOVE W 14KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 75NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 012100UTC 23.3N 121.8E 80NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 021800UTC 24.9N 118.1E 150NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 031800UTC 25.2N 115.2E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPN33 PGTW 302100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301800Z --- NEAR 22.4N 128.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 128.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 23.0N 125.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 23.6N 122.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 24.0N 120.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 24.2N 118.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 24.9N 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 26.5N 114.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 302100Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 127.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY LARGE EYE AS A RESULT OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. ADDITIONALLY, THE OVER- ALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE HAS BECOME SYMMETRIC. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 302100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301800Z --- NEAR 22.4N 128.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 128.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 23.0N 125.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 23.6N 122.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 24.0N 120.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 24.2N 118.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 24.9N 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 26.5N 114.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 302100Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 127.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY LARGE EYE AS A RESULT OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. ADDITIONALLY, THE OVER- ALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE HAS BECOME SYMMETRIC. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 302100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 302100 UTC 00HR 22.4N 127.7E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 23.8N 122.0E 920HPA 60M/S= ** WTPH RPLL 301800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING NO.08 AT 1800 30 SEPTEMBER, TYPHOON (LONGWANG) (0519) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT (22.4N 128.5E) FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 06MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE 220KMS ELSEWHERE FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 45MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 150 KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMI-CERCLE 200 KMS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 011800 23.2N 123.2E AND AT 021800 24.6N 118.8E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE - HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPZ35 KNHC 302344 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005 ...OTIS PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO. THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG BOTH COASTS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES... 200 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 220 MILES... 355 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND OTIS COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 49 MPH...79 KM/HR... AND A GUST TO 63 MPH...101 KM/HR WERE REPORTED AT CABO SAN LUCAS AT A HEIGHT OF 735 FT...224 METERS ABOVE SEA LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... AND SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TOMORROW. REPEATING THE 5 PM PDT POSITION...21.7 N...111.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM PDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ35 KNHC 302356 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005 ...CORRECT FORECASTER NAME... ...OTIS PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO. THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG BOTH COASTS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES... 200 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 220 MILES... 355 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND OTIS COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 49 MPH...79 KM/HR... AND A GUST TO 63 MPH...101 KM/HR WERE REPORTED AT CABO SAN LUCAS AT A HEIGHT OF 735 FT...224 METERS ABOVE SEA LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... AND SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TOMORROW. REPEATING THE 5 PM PDT POSITION...21.7 N...111.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM PDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$