** WTSR20 WSSS 300600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 301200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 301200UTC 22.2N 130.0E GOOD MOVE W 10KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 65NM 30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 011200UTC 23.4N 123.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 021200UTC 25.1N 118.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 031200UTC 25.3N 115.2E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP23 RJTD 301200 *** WARNING 301200. WARNING VALID 011200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 940 HPA AT 22.2N 130.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 65 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 23.4N 123.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 25.1N 118.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 25.3N 115.2E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 301200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 301200 UTC 00HR 22.2N 129.9E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 22.4N 124.8E 935HPA 50M/S P+48HR 23.9N 120.3E 955HPA 40M/S P+72HR 25.5N 117.1E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTPZ35 KNHC 301424 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005 ...OTIS STRENGTHENING SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD... AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD TO BAHIA MAGDALENA ALONG TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA... BUT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. AT 8 AM PDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 110.7 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 275 MILES... 445 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. REPEATING THE 8 AM PDT POSITION...21.1 N...110.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 PM PDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPA44 PHFO 301428 *** TCDCP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 64 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 500 AM HST FRI SEP 30 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH REMAINS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORMS. DATA T-NUMBERS COULD NOT BE COMPUTED BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT MODEL T-NUMBERS YIELDED CURRENT INTENSITIES OF 1.0 AND 1.5 FROM THE VARIOUS SATELLITE AGENCIES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/11. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WELL IN EXCESS OF 30 KT CONTINUES ACROSS KENNETH. THE SHEAR...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF HAWAII...WILL PREVENT KENNETH FROM INTENSIFYING. IN FACT...KENNETH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS DUE TO THE SHEAR AND DUE TO THE LARGE MAUNA KEA AND MAUNA LOA VOLCANOES DEAD AHEAD OF HIM. THE FORECAST TRACK...WHICH MOVES KENNETH ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND...IS CLOSEST TO BAMS. FORECASTER CRAIG FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 19.3N 153.9W 25 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 19.4N 155.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 01/1200Z 19.7N 157.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPA34 PHFO 301430 *** TCPCP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 64 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 500 AM HST FRI SEP 30 2005 ...KENNETH TO MOVE ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND... AT 5 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 153.9 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE ISLAND OF HAWAII IN 6 TO 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 MB...29.91 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM HST POSITION...19.3 N...153.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM HST. FORECASTER CRAIG $$ ** WTPA24 PHFO 301431 *** TCMCP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 64 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112005 1500Z FRI SEP 30 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 153.9W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 153.9W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 153.3W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 19.4N 155.6W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 19.7N 157.6W...DISSIPATED MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 153.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z FORECASTER CRAIG $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 301453 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005 THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-COVERED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY... BUT THE EYE STRUCTURE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT FROM TAFB...65 KT FROM SAB... 65 KT FROM AFWA... AND AN AVERAGE ODT VALUE OF T4.5/77 KT OVER THE PAST 1.5 HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/07. OTIS MADE A SLIGHT WESTWARD JOG DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS... BUT THIS IS BELIEVED TO BE A TEMPORARY MOTION AND WAS LIKELY DUE TO THE RE-ALIGNMENT OF THE MID- AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS. A 30/0532Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED THE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE WAS TILTED ABOUT 20 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL EYE... BUT RADAR DATA AND A 30/1205Z AMSU OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THE TWO CIRCULATIONS ARE NOW VERTICALLY STACKED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WEAKENING WESTERN PORTION OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT... HOWEVER... THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON HOW THE UPPER-LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS HANDLED. THE GFS... NOGAPS... AND UKMET MODELS DROP THE LOW SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF OTIS... WHICH RESULTS IN THE HURRICANE BEING LIFTED NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. IN CONTRAST... THE GFDL... CANADIAN... AND ECMWF MODELS WEAKEN THE UPPER-LOW AND BUILD THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF OTIS... CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TURN SLOWLY WESTWARD AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE LATEST TREND IN WATER VAPORY IMAGERY AND IN UW-CIMSS WATER VAPOR-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LOW IS STRONGER... DIGGING SOUTHWARD... AND THAT MORE RIDGING IS OCCURRING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE UPPER-LOW. ALSO... 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE DECREASED MORE THAN 40 METERS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS AND OVER SOUTHERN BAJA. ALL OF THIS WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT THE GFS-NOGAPS-UKMET SOLUTION... AND THAT 3-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE OTIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 28C OR WARMER SSTS AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN 5 KT OR LESS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 21.1N 110.7W 70 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 21.8N 111.4W 75 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 22.5N 111.8W 80 KT 36HR VT 02/0000Z 23.5N 112.4W 75 KT 48HR VT 02/1200Z 24.5N 113.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 03/1200Z 26.0N 113.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 04/1200Z 28.5N 113.5W 45 KT...INLAND CENTRAL BAJA 120HR VT 05/1200Z 31.5N 112.0W 30 KT...INLAND NWRN MEXICO $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 301600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/301535ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 15E (OTIS) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z --- NEAR 20.8N 110.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 110.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 21.8N 111.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 22.5N 111.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 23.5N 112.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 24.5N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 26.0N 113.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 28.5N 113.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 31.5N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302200Z, 010400Z, 011000Z AND 011600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KENNETH) WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP33 RJTD 301500 *** WARNING 301500. WARNING VALID 011500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 940 HPA AT 22.3N 129.5E SOUTH OF MIYAKOJIMA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 65 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011500UTC AT 23.7N 123.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 301500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 301500UTC 22.3N 129.5E FAIR MOVE W 10KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 65NM 30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 011500UTC 23.7N 123.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 15KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 021200UTC 25.1N 118.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 031200UTC 25.3N 115.2E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPH20 RPMM 301200 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 07 AT 1200 30 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (LONGWANG) (0519) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO TWO POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE THREE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 011200 TWO TWO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FIVE EAST AT 021200 TWO THREE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 031200 TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 301500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 301500 UTC 00HR 22.2N 129.3E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTPN33 PGTW 301500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z --- NEAR 22.2N 130.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 130.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 22.5N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 23.0N 125.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 23.7N 122.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 24.0N 120.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 24.8N 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 26.8N 114.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 301500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 129.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT DISSIPATION OF THE INNER EYEWALL, WHICH IS NOW SURROUNDED BY A LARGER RING OF DEEP CONVECTION NEARLY 70 NM IN DIAMETER. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN THE AERIAL EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS, AS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PROVIDES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM GROWTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 301500 RRD *** 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 24.8N 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 26.8N 114.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 301500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 129.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT DISSIPATION OF THE INNER EYEWALL, WHICH IS NOW SURROUNDED BY A LARGER RING OF DEEP CONVECTION NEARLY 70 NM IN DIAMETER. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN THE AERIAL EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS, AS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PROVIDES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM GROWTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 301500 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z --- NEAR 22.2N 130.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 130.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 22.5N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 301500 RRC *** OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 24.0N 120.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 301500 RRB *** 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 23.0N 125.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 23.7N 122.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 301500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z --- NEAR 22.2N 130.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 130.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 22.5N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 23.0N 125.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 23.7N 122.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 24.0N 120.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 24.8N 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 26.8N 114.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 301500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 129.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT DISSIPATION OF THE INNER EYEWALL, WHICH IS NOW SURROUNDED BY A LARGER RING OF DEEP CONVECTION NEARLY 70 NM IN DIAMETER. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN THE AERIAL EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS, AS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PROVIDES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM GROWTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 301500 RRD *** 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 24.8N 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 26.8N 114.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 301500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 129.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT DISSIPATION OF THE INNER EYEWALL, WHICH IS NOW SURROUNDED BY A LARGER RING OF DEEP CONVECTION NEARLY 70 NM IN DIAMETER. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN THE AERIAL EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS, AS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PROVIDES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM GROWTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 301500 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z --- NEAR 22.2N 130.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 130.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 22.5N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 301500 RRC *** OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 24.0N 120.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 301500 RRB *** 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 23.0N 125.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 23.7N 122.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 301500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z --- NEAR 22.2N 130.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 130.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 22.5N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 23.0N 125.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 23.7N 122.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 24.0N 120.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 24.8N 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 26.8N 114.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 301500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 129.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT DISSIPATION OF THE INNER EYEWALL, WHICH IS NOW SURROUNDED BY A LARGER RING OF DEEP CONVECTION NEARLY 70 NM IN DIAMETER. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN THE AERIAL EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS, AS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PROVIDES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM GROWTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 301713 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 30.09.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 153.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.09.2005 18.1N 153.5W WEAK 00UTC 01.10.2005 18.4N 158.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE OTIS ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 110.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.09.2005 20.5N 110.6W STRONG 00UTC 01.10.2005 22.0N 110.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2005 23.6N 110.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2005 25.4N 111.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.10.2005 26.9N 110.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 03.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 12.0N 92.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.10.2005 12.0N 92.9W WEAK 12UTC 01.10.2005 11.6N 91.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2005 11.6N 92.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2005 11.7N 92.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2005 12.7N 92.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2005 12.8N 93.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2005 13.2N 93.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2005 14.0N 94.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2005 BELOW TROPIAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 11.3N 33.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.09.2005 11.3N 33.4W WEAK 00UTC 01.10.2005 12.6N 33.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2005 12.7N 32.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2005 14.7N 34.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2005 16.5N 34.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2005 18.5N 35.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2005 19.2N 37.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2005 21.3N 38.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2005 22.8N 39.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 301713 ** WTPZ35 KNHC 301755 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005 ...OTIS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES... 205 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 255 MILES... 410 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND OTIS COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR... A SUSTAINED WIND OF 39 MPH...63 KM/HR... AND A GUST TO 52 MPH...83 KM/HR WERE REPORTED AT CABO SAN LUCAS AT A HEIGHT OF 735 FT...224 METERS ABOVE SEA LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. REPEATING THE 11 AM PDT POSITION...21.3 N...111.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM PDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$