** WTPQ32 RJTD 300000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 300000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTJP23 RJTD 300600 *** WARNING 300600. WARNING VALID 010600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 950 HPA AT 22.1N 131.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 23.2N 125.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 24.8N 119.7E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 25.7N 116.6E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 300600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 300600UTC 22.1N 131.0E GOOD MOVE W 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 010600UTC 23.2N 125.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 020600UTC 24.8N 119.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 030600UTC 25.7N 116.6E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ32 RJTD 300600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 300600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN ACCELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPA34 PHFO 300830 *** TCPCP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 63 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1100 PM HST THU SEP 29 2005 AT 11 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 152.7 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN DIRECTION AND FORWARD MOTION EXPECTED FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 MB...29.91 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM HST POSITION...19.2 N...152.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM HST. FORECASTER CRAIG $$ ** WTPA24 PHFO 300830 *** TCMCP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 63 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112005 0900Z FRI SEP 30 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 152.7W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 152.7W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 152.1W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.3N 154.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 19.1N 156.7W...DISSIPATED MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 152.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z FORECASTER CRAIG $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 300831 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005 OTIS HAS DEVELOPED A RAGGED EYE WHICH CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA. BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KNOTS...MAKING OTIS A HURRICANE. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS LOW...THE CYCLONE HAS ONLY 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE...INTENSIFICATION IS ONLY SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS. SATELLITE DATA AND RADAR FROM LOS CABOS SUGGEST THAT OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE OTIS TO MOVE ON A TRACK BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST...PARALLELING BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER ...OTIS SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND APPROACH THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH BRING OTIS TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GFDL KEEPS THE HURRICANE PARALLELING AND NEAR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER COOLER WATERS. THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY. NO CHANGES IN WARNINGS OR WATCHES ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 20.7N 110.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 21.5N 110.9W 70 KT 24HR VT 01/0600Z 22.4N 111.6W 75 KT 36HR VT 01/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W 75 KT 48HR VT 02/0600Z 24.0N 112.5W 70 KT 72HR VT 03/0600Z 25.5N 113.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 04/0600Z 27.5N 114.0W 45 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 05/0600Z 30.5N 114.0W 35 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTPA44 PHFO 300832 *** TCDCP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 63 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1100 PM HST THU SEP 29 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH REMAINS A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PHFO JTWC SAB AND GWC AT 1.5...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS 25 KT. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/11. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT CONTINUES ACROSS KENNETH. THE SHEAR...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF HAWAII...WILL MORE THAN LIKELY RESULT IN THE DISSIPATION OF KENNETH. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THIS TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS KENNETH ON A WESTWARD COURSE THROUGH 24 HOURS. THE TRACK IS CLOSEST TO CONU. FORECASTER CRAIG FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 19.2N 152.7W 25 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 19.3N 154.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 01/0600Z 19.1N 156.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPZ35 KNHC 300832 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005 ...OTIS BECOMES A HURRICANE.... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR BY SATELLITE AND RADAR FORM LA PAZ MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES... 250 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. REPEATING THE 2 AM PDT POSITION...20.7 N...110.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 AM PDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 300832 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005 0900Z FRI SEP 30 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 110.3W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 70SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 110.3W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 110.0W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.5N 110.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.4N 111.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 24.0N 112.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 25.5N 113.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 27.5N 114.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 30.5N 114.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 110.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 300600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 06 AT 0600 30 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (LONGWANG) (0519) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO TWO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT ZERO EAST MOVING WEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE THREE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 010600 TWO TWO POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT THREE EAST AT 020600 TWO FOUR POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT ONE EAST AND AT 030600 TWO SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN31 PHNC 301000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/300935ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 15E (OTIS) WARNING NR 009 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300600Z --- NEAR 20.4N 110.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 110.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 21.5N 110.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 22.4N 111.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 23.0N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 24.0N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 25.5N 113.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 27.5N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 30.5N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301600Z, 302200Z, 010400Z AND 011000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KENNETH) WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 301000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/300935ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 15E (OTIS) WARNING NR 009 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300600Z --- NEAR 20.4N 110.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 110.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 21.5N 110.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 22.4N 111.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 23.0N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 24.0N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 25.5N 113.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 27.5N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 30.5N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301600Z, 302200Z, 010400Z AND 011000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KENNETH) WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 300900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 300900 UTC 00HR 22.1N 130.6E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 22.4N 125.6E 935HPA 50M/S P+48HR 23.6N 120.7E 955HPA 40M/S P+72HR 25.0N 117.3E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTJP33 RJTD 300900 *** WARNING 300900. WARNING VALID 010900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 950 HPA AT 22.1N 130.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010900UTC AT 23.4N 124.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 300900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 300900UTC 22.1N 130.6E GOOD MOVE W 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 010900UTC 23.4N 124.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 020600UTC 24.8N 119.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 030600UTC 25.7N 116.6E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPH RPLL 300600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING NO.06 AT 0600 30 SEPTEMBER, TYPHOON (LONGWANG) (0519) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT (22.0N 131.0E) MOVING WEST AT 05MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 45MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 150 KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 010600 22.4N 126.3E AT 020600 24.0N 121.1E AND AT 030600 26.0N 115.8E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPZ35 KNHC 301153 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005 ...OTIS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE PACIFIC COAST... AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...SATELLITE AND LA PAZ RADAR INDICATE THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES... 240 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. REPEATING THE 5 AM PDT POSITION...20.8 N...110.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM PDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$