** WTSR20 WSSS 291800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 300000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 300000 UTC 00HR 22.1N 132.1E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 22.0N 127.8E 935HPA 50M/S P+48HR 23.1N 122.6E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 24.5N 118.8E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTJP23 RJTD 300000 *** WARNING 300000. WARNING VALID 010000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 950 HPA AT 22.0N 132.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 22.9N 127.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 24.7N 120.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 25.4N 116.7E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 300000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 300000UTC 22.0N 132.1E GOOD MOVE W 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 010000UTC 22.9N 127.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 020000UTC 24.7N 120.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 15KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 030000UTC 25.4N 116.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 300000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG ANALYSIS POSITION 300000UTC 22.0N 132.1E MOVEMENT W 8KT PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 010000UTC 23.3N 127.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 76KT 48HR POSITION 020000UTC 25.5N 121.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT 72HR POSITION 030000UTC 26.5N 117.0E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 41KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN33 PGTW 300300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300000Z --- NEAR 22.0N 132.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 132.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 21.8N 129.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 22.2N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 22.9N 124.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 23.6N 121.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 24.6N 118.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 25.9N 115.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 300300Z POSITION NEAR 21.9N 131.5E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE EYE HAS BECOME RAGGED HOWEVER, A 300012Z SSMI IMAGE INDICATES STY 19W IS UNDERGOING EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT. A 292104Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THE RADIUS OF THE 35 KNOT WIND FIELD IS LARGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 010300Z.// ** WTPA44 PHFO 300230 *** TCDCP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 62 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 500 PM HST THU SEP 29 2005 SINCE MORNING...TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH HAS MAINTAINED A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND NEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED NORTH OF THE CENTER. THIS HAS ALLOWED A DATA T-NUMBER TO BE DETERMINED AGAIN USING THE OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS. CURRENT INTENSITIES AT 30/00Z WERE 1.5 AND 2.0. WE WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT. THE 29/1800 CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWED MORE THAN 30 KNOTS OF WEST SOUTHWEST SHEAR ACROSS KENNETH. WITH LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION AND RATHER STRONG SHEAR...KENNETH IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM MODEL RUNS SHOW KENNETH OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST. THE TROUGH WILL CARRY LOTS OF MOISTURE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UNDER A LOW ALOFT SO HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE ISLANDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FORECASTER KODAMA/DONALDSON FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 19.1N 151.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 19.1N 153.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 01/0000Z 19.1N 155.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPA24 PHFO 300230 *** TCMCP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 62 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112005 0300Z FRI SEP 30 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 151.4W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 151.4W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 150.9W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 19.1N 153.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 19.1N 155.0W...DISSIPATED MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 151.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z FORECASTER KODAMA/DONALDSON $$ ** WTPA34 PHFO 300230 *** TCPCP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 62 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 500 PM HST THU SEP 29 2005 ...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... AT 5 PM HST...0300 UTC THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 151.4 WEST OR ABOUT 245 MILES EAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TILL THE DEPRESSION DISSIPATES WITHIN 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES. TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH IS WEAKENING SLOWLY BUT STILL CARRYING A LOT OF MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH A LOW ALOFT AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY. REPEATING THE 5 PM HST POSITION...19.1 N 151.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM HST. FORECASTER KODAMA/DONALDSON $$ ** WTPZ35 KNHC 300232 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU SEP 29 2005 ...OTIS STRENGTHENING AND THREATENING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED... AT 8 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES... 335 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OTIS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. REPEATING THE 8 PM PDT POSITION...19.9 N...109.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 AM PDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 300232 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005 0300Z FRI SEP 30 2005 AT 8 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 109.7W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 70SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 109.7W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 109.4W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.8N 110.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.6N 111.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.2N 112.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.7N 112.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.5N 113.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 26.5N 114.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 29.5N 114.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 109.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPN33 PGTW 300300 RRE *** PASS INDICATES THE RADIUS OF THE 35 KNOT WIND FIELD IS LARGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 010300Z.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 300300 RRB *** 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 22.2N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 22.9N 124.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 300300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300000Z --- NEAR 22.0N 132.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 132.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 21.8N 129.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 22.2N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 22.9N 124.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 23.6N 121.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 24.6N 118.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 25.9N 115.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 300300Z POSITION NEAR 21.9N 131.5E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE EYE HAS BECOME RAGGED HOWEVER, A 300012Z SSMI IMAGE INDICATES STY 19W IS UNDERGOING EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT. A 292104Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THE RADIUS OF THE 35 KNOT WIND FIELD IS LARGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 010300Z.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 300300 RRC *** 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 23.6N 121.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 24.6N 118.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 300300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300000Z --- NEAR 22.0N 132.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 132.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 21.8N 129.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 300300 RRD *** 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 25.9N 115.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 300300Z POSITION NEAR 21.9N 131.5E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE EYE HAS BECOME RAGGED HOWEVER, A 300012Z SSMI IMAGE INDICATES STY 19W IS UNDERGOING EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT. A 292104Z QUIKSCAT ** WTPZ45 KNHC 300252 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU SEP 29 2005 OTIS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN INFRARED IMAGERY THIS EVENING...WITH CONVECTION NOW WRAPPING MOST OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM SPOT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A JUST RECEIVED SSM/I OVERPASS SHOWING A FORMATIVE EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT. CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 325/11...UNCERTAIN BECAUSE IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH MOTION IS DUE TO RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER AS OTIS CONSOLIDATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF OTIS ALONG 26N...WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER SOUTHWESTERN UTAH AND NEAR 33N126W. THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANDIAN MODELS SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN...WITH OTIS BEING GRADUALLY TURNED NORTHWARD BY THE WESTERN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A LARGER DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC BY 72 HR. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT OTIS WILL NOT CONNECT WITH THE TROUGHS AND TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME. THE MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT THAN THEY WERE 6 HR AGO...AS THE GFDL AND NOGAPS HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS FAR ENOUGH TO THE LEFT TO KEEP OTIS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CURRENT MOTION IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS TRACK...THERE IS A RELUCTANCE TO MOVE THE FORECAST TRACK MUCH TO THE LEFT. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT FOR THE FIRST 48-72 HR ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MAIN ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE. AFTER 72 HR IT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EASTERLY SHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER OTIS...AND CONDITION NOW APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE STORM REACHES COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AFTER 36 HR. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR OTIS TO PEAK AT 75 KT IN 36-48 HR...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE CALLS FOR A PEAK OF 76 KT IN 48 HR...AND THE GFDL CALLS FOR A 68 KT PEAK IN ABOUT 30 HR. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A STRONGER STORM THAN THE GUIDANCE WITH A PEAK OF 80 KT IN ABOUT 36 HR. OTIS COULD STRENGTHEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT OTIS WILL BE MOVING ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERMS AFTER 36-48 HR...AND SMALL CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN LARGE CHANGES IN SSTS UNDER THE STORM LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR THE BOTH COASTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 19.9N 109.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 20.8N 110.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 01/0000Z 21.6N 111.4W 75 KT 36HR VT 01/1200Z 22.2N 112.0W 80 KT 48HR VT 02/0000Z 22.7N 112.4W 75 KT 72HR VT 03/0000Z 24.5N 113.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 04/0000Z 26.5N 114.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 05/0000Z 29.5N 114.0W 35 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 300000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 05 AT 0000 30 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON LONGWANG 0519 WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO TWO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT ONE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE THREE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 010000 TWO TWO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT EIGHT EAST AT 020000 TWO THREE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FIVE EAST AND AT 030000 TWO FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 300300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 300300 UTC 00HR 22.1N 131.6E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTPH RPLL 300000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING NO.05 AT 0000 30 SEPTEMBER, TYPHOON (LONGWANG) (0519) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT (22.0N 132.1E) FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 04MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 45MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 150 KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 010000 22.5N 128.8E AT 020000 23.5N 125.5E AND AT 030000 24.5N 122.1E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTJP33 RJTD 300300 *** WARNING 300300. WARNING VALID 010300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 950 HPA AT 22.1N 131.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010300UTC AT 23.2N 126.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 300300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 300300UTC 22.1N 131.5E GOOD MOVE W 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 010300UTC 23.2N 126.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 020000UTC 24.7N 120.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 15KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 030000UTC 25.4N 116.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPN32 PHNC 300400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/300330ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 062 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300000Z --- NEAR 19.1N 150.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 150.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 19.1N 153.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 19.1N 155.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301000Z, 301600Z AND 302200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15E (OTIS) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 300400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/300335ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (OTIS) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300000Z --- NEAR 19.6N 109.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 109.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 20.8N 110.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 21.6N 111.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 22.2N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 22.7N 112.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 24.5N 113.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 26.5N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 29.5N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301000Z, 301600Z, 302200Z AND 010400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ35 KNHC 300540 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM PDT THU SEP 29 2005 ...OTIS CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...OBSERVED FROM LOS CABOS MEXICO RADAR... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES... 275 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OTIS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. DATA FROM A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION AT SOCORRO ISLAND LOCATED SOUTHWST OF OTIS...RECENTLY REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 38 MPH...62 KM/HR. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. REPEATING THE 11 PM PDT POSITION...20.4 N...110.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM PDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTIN20 DEMS 300600 COR *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 30-09-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 24.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTNT80 EGRR 300553 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.09.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 150.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.09.2005 19.4N 150.8W WEAK 12UTC 30.09.2005 19.3N 155.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 01.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM OTIS ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 109.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.09.2005 19.5N 109.4W STRONG 12UTC 30.09.2005 21.2N 110.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2005 22.3N 110.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2005 23.6N 110.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2005 25.6N 110.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.10.2005 27.4N 110.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 03.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 10.7N 93.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2005 10.7N 93.1W WEAK 12UTC 02.10.2005 10.7N 94.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2005 11.6N 94.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2005 1240N 94.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2005 12.9N 95.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2005 13.8N 95.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 11.9N 34.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.09.2005 11.9N 34.0W WEAK 12UTC 30.09.2005 11.8N 32.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2005 12.9N 32.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2005 13.7N 32.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2005 14.4N 33.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2005 16.2N 32.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2005 17.3N 35.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2005 19.3N 36.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2005 21.2N 37.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 300553