** WTPQ20 BABJ 291800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 291800 UTC 00HR 22.3N 133.1E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 22.7N 129.8E 920HPA 60M/S P+48HR 23.3N 124.7E 930HPA 55M/S P+72HR 24.6N 120.2E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 291800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 291800UTC 22.2N 133.0E GOOD MOVE W 08KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 170NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 301800UTC 23.0N 128.8E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 011800UTC 24.5N 122.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 021800UTC 25.5N 118.2E 220NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTJP23 RJTD 291800 *** WARNING 291800. WARNING VALID 301800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 940 HPA AT 22.2N 133.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 23.0N 128.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 24.5N 122.2E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 25.5N 118.2E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN33 PGTW 292100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291800Z --- NEAR 22.2N 133.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 133.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 22.2N 131.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 22.5N 128.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 23.0N 126.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 23.6N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 24.7N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 25.8N 116.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 292100Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 132.5E. SUPER TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 55 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.// ** WTPZ45 KNHC 292017 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU SEP 29 2005 A WELL-DEFINED PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN ROTATING NORTH AND WESTWARD AT 20-25 KT AROUND THE EAST AND NORTH SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION AND RESULTANT MOTION ARE BASED MAINLY ON THE LOCATION OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM SAB... 45 KT FROM TAFB... AND 35 KT FROM SAB... RESPECTIVELY. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY AN UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 996 MB AND 52 KT AT 29/1545Z. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/11. THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE STARTING TO PULL UNDERNEATH THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS. AS SUCH... A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO RESUME DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. OVERALL... THE FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL FORECAST DISCUSSIONS. OTIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SHOTWAVE TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW OTIS TO TURN NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS AND POSSIBLY MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 96-120 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO DECREASE AND... AS A RESULT... THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS IMPROVED AND BECOME MORE CIRCULAR. A 25/1545Z SSMI OVERPASS INDICATED A 60 PERCENT MID-LEVEL EYEWALL HAD FORMED...SO AT LEAST AN AVERAGE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT OTIS WILL BE OVER 28.5-29C SSTS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS... A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR. BY AROUND 72 HOURS... OTIS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS... WHICH SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING... WITH FASTER WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER 96 HOURS WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 20 KT. INTERESTS NEAR THE BOTH COASTS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 18.9N 109.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 19.4N 110.1W 55 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 20.1N 111.1W 65 KT 36HR VT 01/0600Z 20.8N 111.8W 75 KT 48HR VT 01/1800Z 21.5N 112.4W 70 KT 72HR VT 02/1800Z 23.3N 113.1W 65 KT 96HR VT 03/1800Z 26.0N 114.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 04/1800Z 29.5N 114.0W 35 KT...INLAND CENTRAL BAJA $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 292018 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005 2100Z THU SEP 29 2005 INTERESTS NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 109.4W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 109.4W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 109.0W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.4N 110.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 20.1N 111.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 20.8N 111.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 21.5N 112.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 23.3N 113.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 26.0N 114.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 29.5N 114.0W...INLAND CENTRAL BAJA MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 109.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 292018 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005 2100Z THU SEP 29 2005 INTERESTS NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 109.4W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 109.4W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 109.0W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.4N 110.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 20.1N 111.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 20.8N 111.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 21.5N 112.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 23.3N 113.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 26.0N 114.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 29.5N 114.0W...INLAND CENTRAL BAJA MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 109.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPA24 PHFO 292030 *** TCMCP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 61 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112005 2100Z THU SEP 29 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 150.4W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 150.4W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 149.9W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.5N 152.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 150.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z FORECASTER KODAMA/DONALDSON $$ ** WTPA34 PHFO 292031 *** TCPCP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 61 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1100 AM HST THU SEP 29 2005 ...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII THROUGH 600 PM HST SATURDAY... AT 11 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 150.4 WEST OR ABOUT 310 MILES EAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE DEPRESSION DISSIPATES WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES. TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH HAS WEAKENED BUT STILL THREATENS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII STARTING FRIDAY AND THE HEAVY RAIN MAY SPREAD TO THE OTHER ISLANDS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. REPEATING THE 11 AM HST POSITION...19.1 N 150.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM HST. FORECASTER KODAMA/DONALDSON $$ ** WTPA44 PHFO 292031 *** TCDCP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 61 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1100 AM HST THU SEP 29 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH RETAINS A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT HAS VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 29/1600 UTC SHOWED KENNETH STRETCHED OUT NORTH TO SOUTH WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 32 KNOTS NORTH OF THE CENTER. AN AMSU ESTIMATE AT 29/1627 SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 33 KNOTS. NO DATA T-NUMBERS COULD BE COMPUTED USING THE OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS BUT SATELLITE ESTIMATES USING DVORAK MODEL AND PATTERN T-NUMBERS YIELDED CURRENT INTENSITIES OF 1.5 AND 2.0. THE 29/1800 CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWED MORE THAN 30 KNOTS OF WEST SOUTHWEST SHEAR ACROSS KENNETH. WITH LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION AND RATHER STRONG SHEAR...KENNETH IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. EARLIER GFS MODEL RUNS SHOWED KENNETH CONTINUING AS A REMNANT LOW BUT LATER RUNS SHOW KENNETH OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH SO OUR BULLETINS WILL DROP ANY MENTION OF A REMNANT LOW AND JUST DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS CARRYING LOTS OF MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UNDER A LOW ALOFT SO HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE ISLANDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FORECASTER KODAMA/DONALDSON FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 19.1N 150.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 19.5N 152.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 292200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/292135ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (OTIS) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291800Z --- NEAR 18.5N 109.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 109.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 19.4N 110.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 20.1N 111.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 20.8N 111.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 21.5N 112.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 23.3N 113.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 26.0N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 29.5N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300400Z, 301000Z, 301600Z AND 302200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 292200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/292130ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 061 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291800Z --- NEAR 19.0N 149.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 149.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 19.5N 152.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 300400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15E (OTIS) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPH RPLL 291800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING NO.04 AT 1800 29 SEPTEMBER, TYPHOON (LONGWANG) (0519) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT (22.3N 133.0E) FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 03MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 45MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 150 KILOMETER RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 301800 22.8N 129.9E AT 011800 2304N 126.4E AND AT 021800 24.3N 122.5E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 292100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 292100UTC 22.1N 132.6E GOOD MOVE W 07KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 170NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 302100UTC 23.2N 127.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 011800UTC 24.5N 122.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 021800UTC 25.5N 118.2E 220NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTJP33 RJTD 292100 *** WARNING 292100. WARNING VALID 302100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 940 HPA AT 22.1N 132.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 302100UTC AT 23.2N 127.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 291800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 04 AT 1800 29 SEPTEMBER, TYPHOON (LONGWANG) (0519) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO TWO POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE THREE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILO- METER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 301800 TWO TWO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT NINE EAST AT 011800 TWO THREE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT FOUR EAST AT 021800 TWO FOUR POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN33 PGTW 291500 RRE *** HOURS DUE TO RENEWED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 55 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 291500 RRD *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 25.5N 117.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 26.9N 114.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 291500Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 133.5E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL