** WTSR20 WSSS 290600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP23 RJTD 291200 *** WARNING 291200. WARNING VALID 301200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 940 HPA AT 22.3N 133.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 23.0N 130.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 24.0N 124.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 24.8N 119.7E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 291200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 291200UTC 22.3N 133.9E GOOD MOVE W 07KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 170NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 301200UTC 23.0N 130.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 48HF 011200UTC 24.0N 124.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 021200UTC 24.8N 119.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 291200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 291200 UTC 00HR 22.3N 133.8E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 22.4N 130.5E 920HPA 60M/S P+48HR 22.8N 125.8E 930HPA 55M/S P+72HR 24.5N 121.0E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTPZ45 KNHC 291405 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2005 A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. A 29/0912Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED A LARGE CURVED BAND THAT WRAPPED MORE THAN HALF WAY AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER... WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z WERE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. SINCE THAT TIME... HOWEVER... CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THE BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME LESS DISTINCT. THEREFORE... THE INTENSITY HAS ONLY BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/08. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... THE EXACT CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSR-E OVERPASS DID DEPICT A NICE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION... BUT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THERE HAVE BEEN MULTIPLE SWIRLS GENERATED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST THAT HAVE THEN ROTATED CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE ADVISORY POSITION IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE MID-LEVEL AND LOW-LEVEL CENTERS NOTED IN MICROWAVE DATA... WHICH ALSO MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS MOTION AND FORECAST TRACK. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ORIENTED EAST-WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO BE ERODED BY A SOUTHWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFTER 72 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD ALLOW OTIS TO TURN NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA BY 120 HOURS. ONLY THE 29/00Z ECMWF MODEL TURNS OTIS AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS... MINUS THE ECMWF. NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ABATE ACROSS OTIS AND THIS TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS. HOWEVER... SOME MID-LEVEL SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE IMPROVING OUTFLOW LAYER APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING THE CYCLONE AND LIKELY WILL NOT WEAKEN FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. BUT WITH THE IMPROVING OUTFLOW PATTERN ...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR... AND SSTS OF 28-29C BENEATH THE STORM... AT LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR UNTIL COOLER WATER IS REACHED AFTER 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS... WHICH BRING OTIS UP TO 63 KT AND 74 KT... RESPECTIVELY... BY 48 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 17.9N 108.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 18.7N 109.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 19.5N 110.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 01/0000Z 20.1N 111.3W 65 KT 48HR VT 01/1200Z 20.8N 111.9W 70 KT 72HR VT 02/1200Z 21.9N 112.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 03/1200Z 24.5N 113.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 04/1200Z 28.5N 114.0W 35 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 291406 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005 1500Z THU SEP 29 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 108.2W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 108.2W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 107.9W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.7N 109.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 19.5N 110.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.1N 111.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 20.8N 111.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 21.9N 112.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 24.5N 113.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 28.5N 114.0W...INLAND OVER BAJA MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 108.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN33 PGTW 291500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291200Z --- NEAR 22.4N 133.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 133.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 22.5N 132.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 22.7N 130.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 23.0N 127.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 23.5N 124.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 24.3N 121.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 25.5N 117.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 26.9N 114.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 291500Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 133.5E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RENEWED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 55 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.// ** WTPA24 PHFO 291430 *** TCMCP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 60 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112005 1500Z THU SEP 29 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 149.2W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 149.2W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 148.7W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.3N 150.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 19.8N 152.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.3N 155.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.0N 157.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 22.7N 163.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 25.0N 168.9W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 149.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z FORECASTER CRAIG $$ ** WTPA34 PHFO 291431 *** TCPCP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 60 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 500 AM HST THU SEP 29 2005 AT 5 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 149.2 WEST OR ABOUT 390 MILES EAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM HST POSITION...19.0 N...149.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM HST. FORECASTER CRAIG $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 291600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/291535ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (OTIS) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291200Z --- NEAR 17.7N 107.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 107.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 18.7N 109.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 19.5N 110.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 20.1N 111.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 20.8N 111.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 21.9N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 24.5N 113.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 28.5N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292200Z, 300400Z, 301000Z AND 301600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPA44 PHFO 291455 *** TCDCP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 60 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 500 AM HST THU SEP 29 2005 COMING OUT OF THE ECLIPSE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT KENNETH NO LONGER HAD ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR HIS CENTER. THEREFORE...A DATA T COULD NOT BE COMPUTED...LEAVING US WITH A FINAL T BASED ON MET. AFTER APPLYING DVORAK CONSTRAINTS...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PHFO JTWC AND GWC CONTINUED BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0...OR FROM 25 TO 30 KT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT...MAKING KENNETH A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. KENNETH REMAINS ON A COURSE JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST...OR 280/10. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE DIVIDED INTO TWO CAMPS. ONE CONSISTING OF THE GLOBAL AND CONSENSUS MODELS...AND BAMS KEEP KENNETH MOVING TO THE WEST. THE REMAINING AIDS HAVE KENNETH WANDERING OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE FIRST BUNCH... PUTTING KENNETH AS A REMNANT LOW JUST NORTH OF THE BIG ISLAND FRIDAY AND JUST SOUTH OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE TRACK IS AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT...WITH SHIP AND DSHIP STRENGTHENING KENNETH WHILE THE REST EITHER WEAKEN OR MAINTAIN HIM AT HIS PRESENT INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WEAKENS THE SYSTEM TO A 25 KT REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS THEN KEEPS IT THERE THROUGH 96 HOURS. FORECASTER CRAIG FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 19.0N 149.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 19.3N 150.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 19.8N 152.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 01/0000Z 20.3N 155.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 01/1200Z 21.0N 157.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 02/1200Z 22.7N 163.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 03/1200Z 25.0N 168.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPN33 PGTW 291500 RRC *** 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 23.5N 124.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 24.3N 121.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER ** WTPN33 PGTW 291500 RRB *** 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 22.7N 130.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 23.0N 127.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 291500 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291200Z --- NEAR 22.4N 133.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 133.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 22.5N 132.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 291500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291200Z --- NEAR 22.4N 133.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 133.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 22.5N 132.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 22.7N 130.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 23.0N 127.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 23.5N 124.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 24.3N 121.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 25.5N 117.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 26.9N 114.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 291500Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 133.5E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RENEWED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 55 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 291200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 03 AT 1200 29 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (LOWANG) (0519) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO TWO POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT NINE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE THREE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 301200 TWO TWO POINT NINE NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT EIGHT EAST AT 011200 TWO THREE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT FOUR EAST AND AT 021200 TWO FOUR POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN32 PHNC 291600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/291530ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 060 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 11E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291200Z --- NEAR 18.9N 148.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 148.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 19.3N 150.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 19.8N 152.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 20.3N 155.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 21.0N 157.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 22.7N 163.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 25.0N 168.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292200Z, 300400Z, 301000Z AND 301600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15E (OTIS) WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPH RPLL 291200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING NO.03 AT 1200 29 SEPTEMBER,TYPHOON (LONGWANG) (0519) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT(22.3N 133..9E)FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 03MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 200 KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 45MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 150 KILOMETER RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 200 KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 301200 (22.9N 130.8E) AT 011200 23.5N 127.4E AND AT 021200 24.3N 123.4E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTJP33 RJTD 291500 *** WARNING 291500. WARNING VALID 301500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 940 HPA AT 22.3N 133.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301500UTC AT 23.1N 129.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 291500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 291500UTC 22.3N 133.4E GOOD MOVE W 08KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 170NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 301500UTC 23.1N 129.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 45HF 011200UTC 24.0N 124.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 021200UTC 24.8N 119.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTCA31 MHTG 291547Z *** MHTG SIGMET 4 VALID 291530/292130 MHTG- FIR CENTROAMERICA ACT AREA OCNL CB TS TOPS FL 420 BTN 16N 19N AND 81W 83W MOV WNW 10KT NC OTLK 300300 MOW WNW= ** WTNT80 EGRR 291718 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.09.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 148.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.09.2005 18.8N 148.5W WEAK 00UTC 30.09.2005 18.6N 150.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.09.2005 17.7N 152.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2005 18.4N 155.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2005 20.2N 155.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2005 21.2N 159.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2005 23.0N 161.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2005 24.9N 165.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2005 26.4N 168.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2005 26.5N 170.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2005 26.5N 173.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2005 26.5N 175.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.10.2005 27.1N 179.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM OTIS ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 107.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.09.2005 17.7N 107.9W MODERATE 00UTC 30.09.2005 18.9N 109.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2005 20.3N 110.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2005 21.2N 111.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2005 21.8N 111.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2005 22.7N 112.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2005 23.1N 112.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 03.10.2005 23.1N 113.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2005 24.0N 113.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 04.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+96 : 22.7N 73.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.10.2005 22.7N 73.8W WEAK 00UTC 04.10.2005 24.2N 75.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2005 25.9N 77.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2005 28.4N 79.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.10.2005 30.2N 80.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 291718