** WTIN20 DEMS 290630 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 23-09-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 25.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTIN20 DEMS 290630 COR *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 29-09-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 25.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTJP23 RJTD 290600 *** WARNING 290600. WARNING VALID 300600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 940 HPA AT 22.4N 134.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 22.8N 132.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 23.7N 126.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 25.0N 121.1E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 290600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 290600UTC 22.4N 134.7E GOOD MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 300600UTC 22.8N 132.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 48HF 010600UTC 23.7N 126.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 020600UTC 25.0N 121.1E 220NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ32 RJTD 290600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 290600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTCA31 MHTG 290700Z *** MHTG SIGMET3 VALID 290700/291300 MHTG- FIR CENTROAMERICA ACT AREA OCNL TS FCST TOPS FL420 BTN 15N17N AND 81W83W MVNG WNW 10/15 KT NC. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 290600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 290600 UTC 00HR 22.4N 134.7E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 22.6N 132.2E 920HPA 60M/S P+48HR 23.5N 127.9E 930HPA 55M/S P+72HR 25.1N 122.7E 935HPA 50M/S= ** WTPA24 PHFO 290830 *** TCMCP4 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 59 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112005 0900Z THU SEP 29 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 147.9W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 147.9W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 147.4W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.0N 149.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.4N 151.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.8N 153.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 20.2N 156.2W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 22.0N 163.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 147.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z FORECASTER CRAIG $$ ** WTPA34 PHFO 290830 *** TCPCP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 59 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1100 PM HST WED SEP 28 2005 AT 11 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 147.9 WEST OR ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF HILO...HAWAII. KENNETH IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A WEAKENING IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM HST POSITION...18.6 N...147.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM HST. FORECASTER CRAIG $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 290832 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2005 A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0130Z SUPPORTED AT LEAST 30 KT...WITH A COUPLE OF UNCERTAIN 35 KT VECTORS IN CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. SINCE THAT TIME THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER OR VERY NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THE 6Z CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T2.5...OR 35 KT. BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL MICROWAVE PASSES THAT SUGGEST A CENTER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF MY ESTIMATED POSTION...BUT THESE MAY BE REFLECTING SWIRLS GENERATED IN THE CONVECTION THAT THEN ROTATE COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND A BROADER CIRCULATION. AT NIGHT I WOULD PREFER TO MAINTAIN MORE CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS TRACK THAN JUMP ON ONE OF THESE SWIRLS. EVEN SO...THE TRACK DOES APPEAR TO HAVE TURNED TO THE RIGHT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/5. OTIS REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH OR CUTOFF LOW OFF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THAT OTIS WILL TURN NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF OTIS AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THERE HASN'T BEEN MUCH CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN. THE NOGAPS...WHICH HAD BEEN ONE OF THE SLOWER MODELS PREVIOUSLY...IS NOW ONE OF THE FASTEST...WHILE THE GFDL...WHICH HAD BEEN THE FASTEST...IS NOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK. SUCH ERRATIC BEHAVIOR IS A GOOD REASON TO STAY NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. ONLY THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL TURNS OTIS AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA. NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT OTIS...ALTHOUGH THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A SOMEWHAT FASTER PACE AFTER THAT. BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND/OR COOLER SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0900Z 17.5N 107.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 29/1800Z 18.0N 108.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 30/0600Z 18.9N 110.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 30/1800Z 19.7N 111.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 01/0600Z 20.5N 111.7W 65 KT 72HR VT 02/0600Z 22.1N 112.6W 65 KT 96HR VT 03/0600Z 24.5N 113.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 04/0600Z 27.5N 114.0W 35 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 290833 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005 0900Z THU SEP 29 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 107.6W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 107.6W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.0N 108.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.9N 110.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.7N 111.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 20.5N 111.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 22.1N 112.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 24.5N 113.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 27.5N 114.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 107.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN33 PGTW 290900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z --- NEAR 22.4N 134.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 134.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 22.4N 133.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 22.6N 131.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 22.9N 128.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 23.2N 126.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 24.1N 121.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 25.1N 118.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 26.3N 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290900Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 134.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 290900 RRD *** 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 25.1N 118.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 26.3N 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290900Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 134.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 290900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z --- NEAR 22.4N 134.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 134.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 22.4N 133.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 22.6N 131.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 22.9N 128.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 23.2N 126.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 24.1N 121.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 25.1N 118.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 26.3N 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290900Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 134.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 290900 RRB *** 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 22.6N 131.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 22.9N 128.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 290900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z --- NEAR 22.4N 134.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 134.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 22.4N 133.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPA44 PHFO 290841 *** TCDCP4 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 59 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1100 PM HST WED SEP 28 2005 IT APPEARS THAT THE PERSISTANT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT KENNETH HAS BEEN FEELING THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DONE ITS JOB. SATELLITE MOVIE LOOPS SHOW THAT KENNETH IS NOW A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THANKS TO THE SHEAR...AND MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST IN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE FLOW. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/10. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES PROVIDED BY PHFO JTWC GWC AND SAB WERE AT 1.5 OR 2.0 WHILE A 04Z AMSU-A INTENSITY ESTIMATE BY UW-CIMMS CAME IN AT 33 KT. WILL GO WITH A CONSERVATIVE 35 KT...IN PART DUE TO A FLARE UP OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE LLCC. MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS WEAKEN KENNETH TO 25 KT IN 36 HOURS...THEN VARY SOMEWHAT THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE MORE WESTERLY COURSE THAT KENNETH HAS ASSUMED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE FORECAST...WHICH KEEPS KENNETH ON A TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST THROUGH 72 HOURS...REMAINS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH CONSENSUS MODELS AND BAMS. KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AS A REMNANT LOW THEN JUST SOUTH OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS THEREAFTER. FORECASTER CRAIG FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0900Z 18.6N 147.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 29/1800Z 19.0N 149.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 30/0600Z 19.4N 151.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 30/1800Z 19.8N 153.9W 25 KT 48HR VT 01/0600Z 20.2N 156.2W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 02/0600Z 22.0N 163.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTJP33 RJTD 290900 *** WARNING 290900. WARNING VALID 300900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 940 HPA AT 22.4N 134.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300900UTC AT 22.9N 131.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 290900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 290900UTC 22.4N 134.3E GOOD MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 300900UTC 22.9N 131.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 45HF 010600UTC 23.7N 126.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 020600UTC 25.0N 121.1E 220NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT =